Independent Investment Research, The IDEA!

The IDEA!

Independent Investment Research

The Idea-Driven Equities Analyses company (the IDEA!) is an employee-owned boutique providing independent investment research and financial consultancy services with a clear focus on the Benelux countries. The company was founded in the summer of 2007 by Henk Slotboom and Maarten Verbeek, both with more than 35 years of professional experience in the financial sector. The IDEA! differentiates itself by focusing on adding value through self-initiated in-depth, idea-driven investment research, as well as by bespoke research assignments for institutional investors, hedge funds and private equity. In addition, we provide market intelligence, strategic research and – together with our business partners – consultancy services to businesses. In case you are interested in receiving more information, a sample of our products or an introductory meeting, please send a message to info@theidea.nl.

Equity Bottom-Up

1895 Bancorp of Wisconsin  / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>In this edition: • ABN Amro / ING | both confirm CET1 ratios to be ahead of regulatory requirements • Ahold Delhaize | Albertsons files claim against Kroger after merger attempt was blocked • Shell / SBM Offshore | ExxonMobil plans to further increase oil production • TKH Group | awarded inter-array cable contract for Inch Cape offshore wind farm</li></ul>

In this edition: • ABN Amro / ING | both confirm CET1 ratios to be ahead of regulatory requirements • Ahold Delhaize | Albertsons files claim against Kroger after merger attempt was blocked • Shell / SBM Offshore | ExxonMobil plans to further increase oil production • TKH Group | awarded inter-array cable contract for Inch Cape offshore wind farm

What's News in Amsterdam - 12 December (ABN Amro / ING | Ahold Delhaize | Shell / SBM Offshore | TKH Group)

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Our biggest concerns have stemmed from a handful of large-cap China internet names, which have held back the MSCI EM and Hang Seng indexes. We are also getting a breakout above $93.50-93.75 on the US dollar, a concerning risk-off signal. Still, our list of concerns remains short, and our outlook remains neutral yet constructive overall.

Our biggest concerns have stemmed from a handful of large-cap China internet names, which have held back the MSCI EM and Hang Seng indexes. We are also getting a breakout above $93.50-93.75 on the US dollar, a concerning risk-off signal. Still, our list of concerns remains short, and our outlook remains neutral yet constructive overall.

Global Cyclical Value Sectors Improving -- Buying Financials and Energy Names: ING Groep, Many More

Financials Credit Analyst

Hank Calenti, CFA

CreditContinuum

Credit

Executive Summary: Friday’s jobs report shocker capped off a week which included US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen needing to be Mirandized. This was followed by the Fed stating the obvious in its financial stability report. Unmentioned in this report is that the role of this Fed is no longer to take away the punchbowl, but instead it is the bartender. The week ended with a jobs report that was the biggest miss in nominal terms, ever.The report was at odds with recent PMI surveys in which respondents stated that it was difficult to hire. This may be the result of frictions in hiring as unemployment benefits as well as child-care needs and postponed school re-openings delay employee re-entry. The truth serum for the US economy may occur around September when extended unemployment payments expire.The market impact was an immediate 10 basis point (bp) drop in the 10-year Treasury while the 2-year note even fell 1bp. Prices on the 10-year gave up these gains as the day progressed, but the smart money, that is the bond market, may be correct with the recent dampening of interest rates suggesting a longer time period to a less accommodative Fed.  The US Treasury bond curve ended the week flatter with short-end yields falling by much less than the longer part of the curve.With rates continuing to push credit spreads, Asia- and European-headquartered banks generated negative total returns in all but the lowest duration notes. There was a clear preference for Additional Tier 1 (AT1) bond issuance over the past week while over US$11 billion equivalent was raised by financial institutions globally in USD and Euros. In what may have been the busiest AT1 bond issuance weeks of the year, five institutions brought over US$6.5 billion in six securities.Nonetheless, this is a great credit environment and spreads which could go even tighter into year-end. A single piece of data, such as April’s non-farm payroll figure, is unlikely to change investor positioning. It may be a little too early to fade the market as fundamentals catch-up.Next week we will get a record-matching $126 billion slate of Treasury auctions. We may also see a robust serving of corporate and financials debt issuance. US consumer-price data is set to be published on Tuesday, 12 May. A sharp annual acceleration is forecast, although the market is likely to dismiss the figure as resulting from a comparison to depressed levels of a year earlier.With peak Q1 earnings season now behind us, Japanese banks will deliver their year-end results over the next week while several other stragglers pepper the remainder of the month. US banks signaled that they anticipate significantly higher interest rates by raising record breaking amounts in the debt capital markets following their Q1 earnings announcements. Other banks may follow with material debt issuance over the next few weeks after reporting earnings.Market Outlook: The question is whether the over-heating narrative will make a comeback and bring rate and tapering expectations closer. Financial stability risks appear binary from here. Either the Fed is over-accommodative, and it sits on its hands too long while asset bubbles over-inflate so that it gets nasty when it moves, or the Fed gets impatient, and it lowers accommodation unexpectedly which creates a risk off reaction. In both cases, curves flatten in a risk-off environment. We suspect the former is more likely, and for now, the Fed remains the bartender.

Executive Summary: Friday’s jobs report shocker capped off a week which included US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen needing to be Mirandized. This was followed by the Fed stating the obvious in its financial stability report. Unmentioned in this report is that the role of this Fed is no longer to take away the punchbowl, but instead it is the bartender. The week ended with a jobs report that was the biggest miss in nominal terms, ever.The report was at odds with recent PMI surveys in which respondents stated that it was difficult to hire. This may be the result of frictions in hiring as unemployment benefits as well as child-care needs and postponed school re-openings delay employee re-entry. The truth serum for the US economy may occur around September when extended unemployment payments expire.The market impact was an immediate 10 basis point (bp) drop in the 10-year Treasury while the 2-year note even fell 1bp. Prices on the 10-year gave up these gains as the day progressed, but the smart money, that is the bond market, may be correct with the recent dampening of interest rates suggesting a longer time period to a less accommodative Fed.  The US Treasury bond curve ended the week flatter with short-end yields falling by much less than the longer part of the curve.With rates continuing to push credit spreads, Asia- and European-headquartered banks generated negative total returns in all but the lowest duration notes. There was a clear preference for Additional Tier 1 (AT1) bond issuance over the past week while over US$11 billion equivalent was raised by financial institutions globally in USD and Euros. In what may have been the busiest AT1 bond issuance weeks of the year, five institutions brought over US$6.5 billion in six securities.Nonetheless, this is a great credit environment and spreads which could go even tighter into year-end. A single piece of data, such as April’s non-farm payroll figure, is unlikely to change investor positioning. It may be a little too early to fade the market as fundamentals catch-up.Next week we will get a record-matching $126 billion slate of Treasury auctions. We may also see a robust serving of corporate and financials debt issuance. US consumer-price data is set to be published on Tuesday, 12 May. A sharp annual acceleration is forecast, although the market is likely to dismiss the figure as resulting from a comparison to depressed levels of a year earlier.With peak Q1 earnings season now behind us, Japanese banks will deliver their year-end results over the next week while several other stragglers pepper the remainder of the month. US banks signaled that they anticipate significantly higher interest rates by raising record breaking amounts in the debt capital markets following their Q1 earnings announcements. Other banks may follow with material debt issuance over the next few weeks after reporting earnings.Market Outlook: The question is whether the over-heating narrative will make a comeback and bring rate and tapering expectations closer. Financial stability risks appear binary from here. Either the Fed is over-accommodative, and it sits on its hands too long while asset bubbles over-inflate so that it gets nasty when it moves, or the Fed gets impatient, and it lowers accommodation unexpectedly which creates a risk off reaction. In both cases, curves flatten in a risk-off environment. We suspect the former is more likely, and for now, the Fed remains the bartender.

Bank Credit Weekly: Jobs Report Shocker Flattens Curves

Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

*Insolvency Filing: Wirecard’s (WDR.GY) ongoing last minute negotiations with lenders (including the purported debt for equity swap and asset sales) fell apart, as the management board filed a surprise application for the opening of insolvency proceedings with the district court of Munich;*Risk Exposures Identified: The financial media has widely reported that the EUR 1.75 bn revolver has been almost fully drawn upon at approximately EUR 1.6 bn; and  *Sad Chapter Draws To A Close: Another sad chapter in European banking has now come to an abrupt close. Regulatory reform remains a political hot potato but there is zero evidence of resolve given the conflicted rating agencies, auditing business models, feckless regulators et al.

*Insolvency Filing: Wirecard’s (WDR.GY) ongoing last minute negotiations with lenders (including the purported debt for equity swap and asset sales) fell apart, as the management board filed a surprise application for the opening of insolvency proceedings with the district court of Munich;*Risk Exposures Identified: The financial media has widely reported that the EUR 1.75 bn revolver has been almost fully drawn upon at approximately EUR 1.6 bn; and  *Sad Chapter Draws To A Close: Another sad chapter in European banking has now come to an abrupt close. Regulatory reform remains a political hot potato but there is zero evidence of resolve given the conflicted rating agencies, auditing business models, feckless regulators et al.  

*Another Potential Fraud: Shares of Wirecard (WDI.GR) fell by as much as 67% after the German payments and card-issuing firm disclosed that Ernst &amp; Young were unable to confirm the existence of EUR 1.9 bn (USD 2.1 bn) in cash (representing about 25% of consolidated cash held on balance  sheet) held in trust accounts purportedly held in two Asian banks since 2019. There have also been media reports which suggested that Wirecard's available cash is only EUR 220 mn;* Starting To Come Clean:Wirecard indicated that:There is evidence of "spurious balance confirmations" to "deceive the auditor"; up to EUR 2 bn in drawn lending lines which could be terminated if Wirecard’s audited results (already delayed 4 times) aren’t published by June 19th; and outgoing COO Marsalek has been suspended while incoming CEO Freis will start immediately; and* Risk Is Seemingly Outstanding to Everyone: The alleged Wirecard fraud has a negative readacross to the following: Softbank (9984.JP); Credit Suisse (CSGN.VX); Commerzbank (CBK.GY); Deutsche Bank (DBK.GY); ABN Amro (ABN.NA); ING Groep (INGA.NA); LBBW (private); Barclays (BARC.LN); Credit Agricole (ACA.FP); DZ Bank (private); Lloyds (LLOY.LN); Bank of China (3988.HK); Citibank (C.US); MUFG (8306.JP); Raiffeisen (RBI.AV); Agricultural Bank of China (1288.HK); BDO Unibank (BDO.PM) and the Bank of Philippine Islands (BPI.PM).

*Another Potential Fraud: Shares of Wirecard (WDI.GR) fell by as much as 67% after the German payments and card-issuing firm disclosed that Ernst &amp; Young were unable to confirm the existence of EUR 1.9 bn (USD 2.1 bn) in cash (representing about 25% of consolidated cash held on balance  sheet) held in trust accounts purportedly held in two Asian banks since 2019. There have also been media reports which suggested that Wirecard's available cash is only EUR 220 mn;* Starting To Come Clean:Wirecard indicated that:There is evidence of "spurious balance confirmations" to "deceive the auditor"; up to EUR 2 bn in drawn lending lines which could be terminated if Wirecard’s audited results (already delayed 4 times) aren’t published by June 19th; and outgoing COO Marsalek has been suspended while incoming CEO Freis will start immediately; and* Risk Is Seemingly Outstanding to Everyone: The alleged Wirecard fraud has a negative readacross to the following: Softbank (9984.JP); Credit Suisse (CSGN.VX); Commerzbank (CBK.GY); Deutsche Bank (DBK.GY); ABN Amro (ABN.NA); ING Groep (INGA.NA); LBBW (private); Barclays (BARC.LN); Credit Agricole (ACA.FP); DZ Bank (private); Lloyds (LLOY.LN); Bank of China (3988.HK); Citibank (C.US); MUFG (8306.JP); Raiffeisen (RBI.AV); Agricultural Bank of China (1288.HK); BDO Unibank (BDO.PM) and the Bank of Philippine Islands (BPI.PM).

Netherlands

ING Groep N.V. offers financial services to individuals, corporations, and other institutions.  The Company offers corporate, investment, and private banking services, asset and portfolio management, treasury services, and insurance.  ING Groep has offices throughout the world.

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ING Groep NV (INGA NA)

What's News in Amsterdam - 12 December (ABN Amro / ING | Ahold Delhaize | Shell / SBM Offshore | TKH Group)

In this edition: • ABN Amro / ING | both confirm CET1 ratios to be ahead of regulatory requirements • Ahold Delhaize | Albertsons files claim...

The IDEA!

Global Cyclical Value Sectors Improving -- Buying Financials and Energy Names: ING Groep, Many More

Continued rising rates is likely to support value Sectors moving forward (especially Financials and Energy), and it also typically indicates...

Vermilion Research

Bank Credit Weekly: Jobs Report Shocker Flattens Curves

Job data raises uncertainty as the Fed continues to act as bartender. Financial stability risks appear binary while rates push credit spreads. Can...

Hank Calenti, CFA

Wirecard – Yolk’s On Everyone

*Another Potential Fraud: Shares of Wirecard (WDI.GR) fell by as much as 67% after the German payments and card-issuing firm disclosed that Ernst...

Thomas J. Monaco

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

What's News in Amsterdam - 12 December (ABN Amro / ING | Ahold Delhaize | Shell / SBM Offshore | TKH Group)

In this edition: • ABN Amro / ING | both confirm CET1 ratios to be ahead of regulatory requirements • Ahold Delhaize | Albertsons files claim...

The IDEA!

Global Cyclical Value Sectors Improving -- Buying Financials and Energy Names: ING Groep, Many More

Continued rising rates is likely to support value Sectors moving forward (especially Financials and Energy), and it also typically indicates...

Vermilion Research

Bank Credit Weekly: Jobs Report Shocker Flattens Curves

Job data raises uncertainty as the Fed continues to act as bartender. Financial stability risks appear binary while rates push credit spreads. Can...

Hank Calenti, CFA

Wirecard – The Cookie Crumbles

*Insolvency Filing: Wirecard’s (WDR.GY) ongoing last minute negotiations with lenders (including the purported debt for equity swap and asset...

Thomas J. Monaco

Wirecard – Yolk’s On Everyone

*Another Potential Fraud: Shares of Wirecard (WDI.GR) fell by as much as 67% after the German payments and card-issuing firm disclosed that Ernst...

Thomas J. Monaco