HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Capital Markets

Guangzhou Innogen Pharmaceutical Group / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Innogen’s business, financial condition, operation results and prospects for the next couple of years are substantially dependent on the successful approval and commercialization of Efsubaglutide Alfa, indicating single product risk. </li>
<li>Due to slower R&amp;D progress and fierce competition brought by first movers and generic drugs, commercialization prospects of Efsubaglutide Alfa is highly uncertain, leading to potential lower-than-expected sales performance.</li>
<li>After Series B+ financing, the post-investment valuation of Innogen is already RMB4.65 billion. However, share price of peers has not done well, which makes us cautious about Innogen's IPO prospects.</li>
</ul>


Innogen’s business, financial condition, operation results and prospects for the next couple of years are substantially dependent on the successful approval and commercialization of Efsubaglutide Alfa, indicating single product risk. 
Due to slower R&amp;D progress and fierce competition brought by first movers and generic drugs, commercialization prospects of Efsubaglutide Alfa is highly uncertain, leading to potential lower-than-expected sales performance.
After Series B+ financing, the post-investment valuation of Innogen is already RMB4.65 billion. However, share price of peers has not done well, which makes us cautious about Innogen's IPO prospects.


Pre-IPO Guangzhou Innogen Pharmaceutical Group- The Good Story of GLP-1 May Not Bring High Valuation

Sunshine Lake Pharma / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Most revenue was contributed by Kewei, but kewei has been included in VBP.Together with increasing competition, the outlook is gloomy if Sunshine Lake Pharma continues to mainly rely on Kewei.</li>
<li>There’s a significant gap in Sunshine Lake Pharma's R&amp;D progress/clinical data compared to the products of peers.The pipeline has been “disconnected” from the level of domestic biotech in recent years</li>
<li>Sunshine Lake Pharma is inferior to other pharmaceutical companies in China.Even if CJ Pharma will be merged into Sunshine Lake Pharma, its market value should be lower than leading Biotech.</li>
</ul>


Most revenue was contributed by Kewei, but kewei has been included in VBP.Together with increasing competition, the outlook is gloomy if Sunshine Lake Pharma continues to mainly rely on Kewei.
There’s a significant gap in Sunshine Lake Pharma's R&amp;D progress/clinical data compared to the products of peers.The pipeline has been “disconnected” from the level of domestic biotech in recent years
Sunshine Lake Pharma is inferior to other pharmaceutical companies in China.Even if CJ Pharma will be merged into Sunshine Lake Pharma, its market value should be lower than leading Biotech.


Pre-IPO Sunshine Lake Pharma - “Outdated” Pipeline Is Difficult to Obtain Decent Valuation

Equity Bottom-Up

Shanghai Henlius Biotech  / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>LVC increased its holding of Henlius by 1,110,900 shares on January 23, reflecting its high recognition of the Company and optimism on its prospects, despite the biosimilar VBP headwinds.</li>
<li>Even with concerns, LVC still repeatedly invested in Henlius at a valuation far higher than its actual value, offering support with real money during pre-IPO stage.</li>
<li>Lin Lijun’s dissenting vote was a deliberate decision. We are interested to see Lin's next move. Lin should have a very clear understanding of the true value of Henlius.</li>
</ul>


LVC increased its holding of Henlius by 1,110,900 shares on January 23, reflecting its high recognition of the Company and optimism on its prospects, despite the biosimilar VBP headwinds.
Even with concerns, LVC still repeatedly invested in Henlius at a valuation far higher than its actual value, offering support with real money during pre-IPO stage.
Lin Lijun’s dissenting vote was a deliberate decision. We are interested to see Lin's next move. Lin should have a very clear understanding of the true value of Henlius.


Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK) - LVC Increased Its Holding of Henlius Again

<ul>
<li>Relevant departments are discussing the promotion of drugs included in VBP scope to enter retail pharmacies. However, the new business model will be detrimental to valuation performance for retail pharmacies.</li>
<li>The gap in the distribution of funds among biotech companies is rapidly widening. We suggest investors focus on leading biotech rather than take risks in areas with higher uncertainties.</li>
<li>Vesync is a good company. Due to the low liquidity, the Proposal presents a good opportunity for shareholders to exit. Considering its future growth potential, Share Alternative can be considered.</li>
</ul>


Relevant departments are discussing the promotion of drugs included in VBP scope to enter retail pharmacies. However, the new business model will be detrimental to valuation performance for retail pharmacies.
The gap in the distribution of funds among biotech companies is rapidly widening. We suggest investors focus on leading biotech rather than take risks in areas with higher uncertainties.
Vesync is a good company. Due to the low liquidity, the Proposal presents a good opportunity for shareholders to exit. Considering its future growth potential, Share Alternative can be considered.


China Healthcare Weekly (Feb.9) - Vesync Is a High-Quality Company, VBP to Cover Retail Pharmacies

China Resources Sanjiu Medical & Pharma / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>If product sales cannot continue to climb rapidly and dilute the costs, the final profit will gradually fade away. Therefore, Chinese biotech companies need new blockbuster products to drive growth.</li>
<li>The decline in the number of biotech companies in the future is actually “a supply side reform” that fundamentally reduces market competition, which obviously benefit those first-tier companies.</li>
<li>The acquisition of Tasly by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-resources-sanju-mdcl-phrm-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6218:1" rel="noopener">China Resources Sanjiu Medical &amp; Pharma </a>is still in progress. The deal may not be completed until 25H1 if the approval time is not enough.</li>
</ul>


If product sales cannot continue to climb rapidly and dilute the costs, the final profit will gradually fade away. Therefore, Chinese biotech companies need new blockbuster products to drive growth.
The decline in the number of biotech companies in the future is actually “a supply side reform” that fundamentally reduces market competition, which obviously benefit those first-tier companies.
The acquisition of Tasly by China Resources Sanjiu Medical &amp; Pharma is still in progress. The deal may not be completed until 25H1 if the approval time is not enough.


China Healthcare Weekly (Feb.2)- Update on CR Sanjiu's Acquisition of Tasly, China Biotech's Outlook

China

Innovent Biologics, Inc. operates as a biopharmaceutical company. The Company develops, manufactures, and distributes monoclonal antibody drug candidates for the treatment of oncology, ophthalmology, autoimmune, cardiovascular, and other diseases. Innovent Biologics serves customers in China.

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Innovent Biologics Inc (1801 HK)

Pre-IPO Guangzhou Innogen Pharmaceutical Group- The Good Story of GLP-1 May Not Bring High Valuation

Innogen's future success hinges on approval of Efsubaglutide Alfa, but uncertainty in commercialization and competition will impact sales...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Pre-IPO Sunshine Lake Pharma - “Outdated” Pipeline Is Difficult to Obtain Decent Valuation

Sunshine Lake Pharma is heavily relying on Kewei, leading to a gloomy outlook due to competition/VBP. Pipeline has been “disconnected” from the...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK) - LVC Increased Its Holding of Henlius Again

Share price of Henlius has rebounded rapidly to above HK$20/share after the deal break. LVC/Lin Lijun repeatedly increased holding of Henlius,...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

China Healthcare Weekly (Feb.9) - Vesync Is a High-Quality Company, VBP to Cover Retail Pharmacies

Promoting VBP in retail pharmacy may harm valuation.Biotech funding gap widens, investors advised to focus on leading companies. Vesync is a good...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

China Healthcare Weekly (Feb.2)- Update on CR Sanjiu's Acquisition of Tasly, China Biotech's Outlook

Chinese biotech companies need to develop new blockbuster products to sustain growth. A "supply side reform” benefits first-tier Biotech. The...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Pre-IPO Guangzhou Innogen Pharmaceutical Group- The Good Story of GLP-1 May Not Bring High Valuation

​Innogen's future success hinges on approval of Efsubaglutide Alfa, but uncertainty in commercialization and competition will impact sales...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Pre-IPO Sunshine Lake Pharma - “Outdated” Pipeline Is Difficult to Obtain Decent Valuation

​Sunshine Lake Pharma is heavily relying on Kewei, leading to a gloomy outlook due to competition/VBP. Pipeline has been “disconnected” from the...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK) - LVC Increased Its Holding of Henlius Again

Share price of Henlius has rebounded rapidly to above HK$20/share after the deal break. LVC/Lin Lijun repeatedly increased holding of Henlius,...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

China Healthcare Weekly (Feb.9) - Vesync Is a High-Quality Company, VBP to Cover Retail Pharmacies

Promoting VBP in retail pharmacy may harm valuation.Biotech funding gap widens, investors advised to focus on leading companies. Vesync is a good...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

China Healthcare Weekly (Feb.2)- Update on CR Sanjiu's Acquisition of Tasly, China Biotech's Outlook

​Chinese biotech companies need to develop new blockbuster products to sustain growth. A "supply side reform” benefits first-tier Biotech. The...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Innogen's future success hinges on approval of Efsubaglutide Alfa, but uncertainty in commercialization and competition will impact sales...

Sunshine Lake Pharma is heavily relying on Kewei, leading to a gloomy outlook due to competition/VBP. Pipeline has been “disconnected” from the...

Chinese biotech companies need to develop new blockbuster products to sustain growth. A "supply side reform” benefits first-tier Biotech. The...