Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Orient Overseas International / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Current at 66 constituents, we expect to reach 80 <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">HSI INDEX</a> constituents by the end of the year before moving higher towards 100 index members in 2023.</li>
<li>We list 10 stocks that could be added to the index in June - with one-way turnover close to 6%, the actual number of inclusions will be lower.</li>
<li>We also list out another 8 stocks that could possibly be added in June, though the probability of a September/ December inclusion is higher.</li>
</ul>


Current at 66 constituents, we expect to reach 80 HSI INDEX constituents by the end of the year before moving higher towards 100 index members in 2023.
We list 10 stocks that could be added to the index in June - with one-way turnover close to 6%, the actual number of inclusions will be lower.
We also list out another 8 stocks that could possibly be added in June, though the probability of a September/ December inclusion is higher.


HSI Index Rebalance Preview: Will The Pace of Inclusions Pick Up?

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Bottom-Up

Innovent Biologics Inc / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The biggest characteristic of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/innovent-biologics-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27452:1" rel="noopener">Innovent Biologics Inc (1801 HK)</a> is its strong ability of resources integration. Besides, when it comes to execution, clinical efficiency and R&amp;D productivity, Innovent deserves credit.</li>
<li>If having 10 big commercialized drugs are the threshold for becoming a biopharma, Innovent's upgrade from biotech to biopharma is almost complete. </li>
<li>Innovent has enough cash flow over the next few years to support development, and may even turn losses into profits. So, we think that Innovent could get through “this winter”. </li>
</ul>


The biggest characteristic of Innovent Biologics Inc (1801 HK) is its strong ability of resources integration. Besides, when it comes to execution, clinical efficiency and R&amp;D productivity, Innovent deserves credit.
If having 10 big commercialized drugs are the threshold for becoming a biopharma, Innovent's upgrade from biotech to biopharma is almost complete. 
Innovent has enough cash flow over the next few years to support development, and may even turn losses into profits. So, we think that Innovent could get through “this winter”. 


Innovent Biologics Inc (1801.HK) - Capable of Surviving “this Winter”

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The National Health Commission (NHC) of PRC released the NHC's Departmental Budget for 2022, further reducing the health expenditure of public hospitals compared with 2021.</li>
<li>So far, there are no strong “signals” about when the IPO environment will turn around. The transaction of control rights and M&amp;A between listed companies could become the mainstream.</li>
<li>The growth of enterprises takes time and is cyclical, but the secondary market won’t give enterprises the time for accumulation, which needs to be aware of by primary market investors.</li>
</ul>


The National Health Commission (NHC) of PRC released the NHC's Departmental Budget for 2022, further reducing the health expenditure of public hospitals compared with 2021.
So far, there are no strong “signals” about when the IPO environment will turn around. The transaction of control rights and M&amp;A between listed companies could become the mainstream.
The growth of enterprises takes time and is cyclical, but the secondary market won’t give enterprises the time for accumulation, which needs to be aware of by primary market investors.


China Healthcare Weekly (Apr.1)- Lower Budget of Public Hospitals, IPO Environment, Impatient Market

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Shanghai Junshi Biosciences  / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-junshi-bioscience-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27760:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Junshi Bioscience Co. Ltd. (1877 HK)'s</a> oncology drug candidate toripalimab marketing application is currently under priority review by the FDA, with a target action date of April 30, 2022.</li>
<li>However, FDA may reject toripalimab application, as it is predominantly based on China clinical trial data. Toripalimab may also face delay in FDA decision due to delayed regulatory inspection.</li>
<li>PD-1 drug market in the U.S. is intensely competitive, making the commercialization prospect of a new drug quite difficult. Toripalimab reported muted performance in China due to pricing headwind.</li>
</ul>



Shanghai Junshi Bioscience Co. Ltd. (1877 HK)'s oncology drug candidate toripalimab marketing application is currently under priority review by the FDA, with a target action date of April 30, 2022.
However, FDA may reject toripalimab application, as it is predominantly based on China clinical trial data. Toripalimab may also face delay in FDA decision due to delayed regulatory inspection.
PD-1 drug market in the U.S. is intensely competitive, making the commercialization prospect of a new drug quite difficult. Toripalimab reported muted performance in China due to pricing headwind.


Shanghai Junshi Bioscience (1877 HK): Uncertainties Prevailing Ahead of First U.S. Drug Approval

<ul>
<li>After raising over RMB70 billion,investors have much higher expectation on BeiGene than other biotech/biopharma, because BeiGene is “different”,but the real pressure will come over the next two or three years.</li>
<li>Will BeiGene become China's first truly international pharmaceutical company, or be dragged into mediocrity by the failure of key trials or the failure of commercialization to meet the market’s expectations?</li>
<li>It is attractive if the market value is below US$20 billion. However, considering the Russia-Ukraine war and other potential external uncertainties, we advise investors to keep alert.</li>
</ul>


After raising over RMB70 billion,investors have much higher expectation on BeiGene than other biotech/biopharma, because BeiGene is “different”,but the real pressure will come over the next two or three years.
Will BeiGene become China's first truly international pharmaceutical company, or be dragged into mediocrity by the failure of key trials or the failure of commercialization to meet the market’s expectations?
It is attractive if the market value is below US$20 billion. However, considering the Russia-Ukraine war and other potential external uncertainties, we advise investors to keep alert.


BeiGene Ltd (6160.HK/688235.CH) - There Is No Way to Retreat

China

Innovent Biologics, Inc. operates as a biopharmaceutical company. The Company develops, manufactures, and distributes monoclonal antibody drug candidates for the treatment of oncology, ophthalmology, autoimmune, cardiovascular, and other diseases. Innovent Biologics serves customers in China.

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Innovent Biologics Inc (1801 HK)

HSI Index Rebalance Preview: Will The Pace of Inclusions Pick Up?

There could be 5-6 inclusions to the HSI in June as part of the move to 80 members. We list 10 stocks that could be added to the index, and another...

Brian Freitas