HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Last week, the 7th national volume-based purchase (VBP) began, involving 208 product specifications and 59 varieties.</li>
<li>We summaries the competitive landscape and outlook of both domestic and foreign pharmaceutical companies in this VBP.</li>
<li>Most investors may not have experienced July 22, 2015, so there is no reason to dismiss the prospects of China's healthcare industry because of the correction in the short term. </li>
</ul>


Last week, the 7th national volume-based purchase (VBP) began, involving 208 product specifications and 59 varieties.
We summaries the competitive landscape and outlook of both domestic and foreign pharmaceutical companies in this VBP.
Most investors may not have experienced July 22, 2015, so there is no reason to dismiss the prospects of China's healthcare industry because of the correction in the short term. 


China Healthcare Weekly (Jan.28) - 7th National VBP, Taking History as a Mirror, Confidence Rebuilt

<ul>
<li>Last week, we saw some rebounds in the healthcare sector, and many investors begin to believe that a complete reversal is imminent. </li>
<li>Our view is that this is <strong>a temporary rebound</strong> after continuous pull-back due to the broken logic, rather than <strong>a complete reversal</strong>.We recommend investors to see the rebound rationally.</li>
<li>In terms of the future direction of stock price, we analyze it based on three scenarios.</li>
</ul>


Last week, we saw some rebounds in the healthcare sector, and many investors begin to believe that a complete reversal is imminent. 
Our view is that this is a temporary rebound after continuous pull-back due to the broken logic, rather than a complete reversal.We recommend investors to see the rebound rationally.
In terms of the future direction of stock price, we analyze it based on three scenarios.


The Insecure Rebound in Healthcare Sector and the Future Direction of Stock Price (2022)

Equity Capital Markets

Betta Pharmaceuticals   / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>If the R&amp;D pipeline projects are not recognized by international capital,the main reason could be either the product development progress is lagging behind or the projects are not good enough.</li>
<li>The real innovative drugs would not be affected by generics that easily, and are to overturn the size of the old drug market.</li>
<li>The real risk of Betta would be revealed in the next few years as VBP promotes. So, we are conservative about the Company’s outlook at the current stage.</li>
</ul>


If the R&amp;D pipeline projects are not recognized by international capital,the main reason could be either the product development progress is lagging behind or the projects are not good enough.
The real innovative drugs would not be affected by generics that easily, and are to overturn the size of the old drug market.
The real risk of Betta would be revealed in the next few years as VBP promotes. So, we are conservative about the Company’s outlook at the current stage.


Pre-IPO Betta Pharmaceuticals - Lack of Staying Power

Equity Bottom-Up

Shanghai Junshi Biosciences  / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-junshi-bioscience-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27760:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Junshi Bioscience Co. Ltd. (1877 HK)</a> announced that it has terminated its PD-1 commercialization partnership with AstraZeneca. Lower-than-expected sales performance is seen as the key reason.</li>
<li>Junshi's commercialization team is the weakest among the domestic Top Four.As the FDA's attitude may have changed, the logic of exporting innovative domestic drugs to foreign markets could be shaken.</li>
<li>Given the poor financing environment,it's challenging for Junshi to afford large investment in R&amp;D and licensing deals by just relying on cash in hand and cashflow generating from commercialized products.</li>
</ul>



Shanghai Junshi Bioscience Co. Ltd. (1877 HK) announced that it has terminated its PD-1 commercialization partnership with AstraZeneca. Lower-than-expected sales performance is seen as the key reason.
Junshi's commercialization team is the weakest among the domestic Top Four.As the FDA's attitude may have changed, the logic of exporting innovative domestic drugs to foreign markets could be shaken.
Given the poor financing environment,it's challenging for Junshi to afford large investment in R&amp;D and licensing deals by just relying on cash in hand and cashflow generating from commercialized products.


Shanghai Junshi Bioscience (1877.HK/688180.CH) - Behind the “break Up” with AstraZeneca

<ul>
<li>China attaches great importance to gene therapy and related products, which would be a leader of the third industrial revolution in biomedicine and have broad prospects for future development.</li>
<li>With obvious strength in this field,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/genscript-biotech-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21041:1" rel="noopener">Genscript Biotech (1548 HK)</a>’s businesses are in line with the future trend and the outlook is also quite promising, indicating exponential growth potential in valuation.</li>
<li>However, the potential risks on deterioration of international relations and the concerns on CAR-T commercialization should not be neglected by investors.</li>
</ul>


China attaches great importance to gene therapy and related products, which would be a leader of the third industrial revolution in biomedicine and have broad prospects for future development.
With obvious strength in this field,Genscript Biotech (1548 HK)’s businesses are in line with the future trend and the outlook is also quite promising, indicating exponential growth potential in valuation.
However, the potential risks on deterioration of international relations and the concerns on CAR-T commercialization should not be neglected by investors.


Genscript Biotech (1548.HK) - The Strength and the Concerns

China

Innovent Biologics, Inc. operates as a biopharmaceutical company. The Company develops, manufactures, and distributes monoclonal antibody drug candidates for the treatment of oncology, ophthalmology, autoimmune, cardiovascular, and other diseases. Innovent Biologics serves customers in China.

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Innovent Biologics Inc (1801 HK)

China Healthcare Weekly (Jan.28) - 7th National VBP, Taking History as a Mirror, Confidence Rebuilt

We analyzed the competitive landscape of 7th national VBP. Taking history as a mirror, the 2015 healthcare reform could be a good reference.So,...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

The Insecure Rebound in Healthcare Sector and the Future Direction of Stock Price (2022)

The rebound in China healthcare sector last week was a temporary rebound rather than a complete reversal. In terms of future direction of stock...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Pre-IPO Betta Pharmaceuticals - Lack of Staying Power

The insight analyzed Betta about key products such as Icotinib, Ensartinib, MIL60, CM082, concerns on slow product iteration,fierce...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Shanghai Junshi Bioscience (1877.HK/688180.CH) - Behind the “break Up” with AstraZeneca

The insight analyzed Junshi in terms of the potential reasons behind the termination of PD-1 commercialization partnership with AstraZeneca, the...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Genscript Biotech (1548.HK) - The Strength and the Concerns

This insight analyzed Genscript's three largest segments (life-science services and products, CDMO, cell therapy), strength in CGT, and concerns on...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

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