Economist

Richard Iley

Macroeconomics

<div class="content-highlight">CPI inflation continued to normalise in August, led by a continued acceleration in vegetable inflation but also further upticks in housing, clothing and footwear and core services inflation. Only continued unprecedented but ultimately unsustainable deflation in pulses is keeping inflation below 4% y/y. With base effects set to keep pushing inflation up and upside risks from the 7th Pay Commission hovering in the wings, rate-cut expectations should fade further. 5% inflation, as we have…</div>

CPI inflation continued to normalise in August, led by a continued acceleration in vegetable inflation but also further upticks in housing, clothing and footwear and core services inflation. Only continued unprecedented but ultimately unsustainable deflation in pulses is keeping inflation below 4% y/y. With base effects set to keep pushing inflation up and upside risks from the 7th Pay Commission hovering in the wings, rate-cut expectations should fade further. 5% inflation, as we have…

Some people tend to view 'the glass' as half full; others as half empty. A further alternative is that the  glass is simply twice as large as it needs to be! Ultimately, analysis and opinion is often in the 'eye of the beholder'.India's latest GDP report is a perfect case in point with pessimistic, optimistic and realistic interpretations all plausible and legitimate. This short note will try to encompass all three view points and, in the process, hopefully shed more light on the Indian…

Some people tend to view 'the glass' as half full; others as half empty. A further alternative is that the  glass is simply twice as large as it needs to be! Ultimately, analysis and opinion is often in the 'eye of the beholder'.India's latest GDP report is a perfect case in point with pessimistic, optimistic and realistic interpretations all plausible and legitimate. This short note will try to encompass all three view points and, in the process, hopefully shed more light on the Indian…

As Nils Bohr quipped, making predictions is difficult, especially about the future! One prediction however has been relatively easy for some time: Indian CPI inflation is set to climb, possibly sharply, in the next 3-6 months. As previously detailed, there have been two key disinflationary drivers which propelled CPI to an all-time low of a now-revised 1.46% y/y in June: unprecedented deflation in volatile vegetables' and pulses' prices and sliding core inflation in the aftermath of…

As Nils Bohr quipped, making predictions is difficult, especially about the future! One prediction however has been relatively easy for some time: Indian CPI inflation is set to climb, possibly sharply, in the next 3-6 months. As previously detailed, there have been two key disinflationary drivers which propelled CPI to an all-time low of a now-revised 1.46% y/y in June: unprecedented deflation in volatile vegetables' and pulses' prices and sliding core inflation in the aftermath of…

Three recent developments signal that the progress the Indian authorities have finally started to make in tackling the non-performing assets that have gummed up the banking system for several years is accelerating.First, <a href="http://www.livemint.com/Industry/TECdaxHBGkvi0FRnQuorFL/RBI-identifies-40-more-large-loan-defaulter-accounts-for-cle.html?li_source=LI&amp;li_medium=news_rec" target="_blank">press reports</a> indicate RBI is continuing to use its new powers to push defaulters into bankruptcy and identified a further 40 large loan cases where banks will be pushed towards early resolution. When combined with the 12 cases initially identified by RBI in June and where…

Three recent developments signal that the progress the Indian authorities have finally started to make in tackling the non-performing assets that have gummed up the banking system for several years is accelerating.First, press reports indicate RBI is continuing to use its new powers to push defaulters into bankruptcy and identified a further 40 large loan cases where banks will be pushed towards early resolution. When combined with the 12 cases initially identified by RBI in June and where…

India: NPA Resolution Gains Further Momentum

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

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Technical Analysis

DXY - Long DXY (as a Euro hedge) from 93.00 (via UUP) with a stop below 92. Corrective rise targets 95.30/50 with scope to 96.50 stemming from Euro short covering. Immediate pivot lies at 94.20/23 and would induce further USD short covering.Two factors that would see accelerated USD short covering are 1) A spike in yield 2) Equity fallout lending support to the USD particularly against Asian and EM FX.Key pivot points for the USD are: 1) T-Note 125.90 is a key pivot for yield 2) USD/JPY 111 for…

DXY - Long DXY (as a Euro hedge) from 93.00 (via UUP) with a stop below 92. Corrective rise targets 95.30/50 with scope to 96.50 stemming from Euro short covering. Immediate pivot lies at 94.20/23 and would induce further USD short covering.Two factors that would see accelerated USD short covering are 1) A spike in yield 2) Equity fallout lending support to the USD particularly against Asian and EM FX.Key pivot points for the USD are: 1) T-Note 125.90 is a key pivot for yield 2) USD/JPY 111 for…

USD Cover Pressure with Weaker EM FX Linked to Equity Peaks

India

The Indian rupee is the official currency of India. 

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India: Return To Normalcy

CPI inflation continued to normalise in August, led by a continued acceleration in vegetable inflation but also further upticks in housing,...

Richard Iley

India: The Eye of the Beholder

Some people tend to view 'the glass' as half full; others as half empty. A further alternative is that the glass is simply twice as large as it...

Richard Iley

India: Turn Up The Base (Effect)

As Nils Bohr quipped, making predictions is difficult, especially about the future! One prediction however has been relatively easy for some time:...

Richard Iley

India: NPA Resolution Gains Further Momentum

Three recent developments signal that the progress the Indian authorities have finally started to make in tackling the non-performing assets that...

Richard Iley

USD Cover Pressure with Weaker EM FX Linked to Equity Peaks

DXY - Long DXY (as a Euro hedge) from 93.00 (via UUP) with a stop below 92. Corrective rise targets 95.30/50 with scope to 96.50 stemming from Euro...

Thomas Schroeder

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)