Asia biased macro & technical analysis, Untying The Gordian Knot

Untying The Gordian Knot

Asia biased macro & technical analysis

A differentiated process with a primary focus on Asia. Technical Analysis as core and Macro drivers that could bring the view to fruition & changes that could make the idea fall apart. The objective is to be the best in class, hence corner shop.

Macroeconomics

<div data-attrs='{"url":"https://gordianknot.substack.com/subscribe?","text":"Subscribe"}'><div><form class="subscription-widget-subscribe"><div><ul><li><span style="font-size: var(--content-font-size);">To a 180-degree flip at the End of the Dollar hegemony and reserve system, opinions were pushed aggressively over mainstream CNN, FOX News networks, News Headlines, and fringe opinion makers looking for click baits.</span></li><li>We look at sentiment shift, and is it different from when Dollar peaked in October 2022?</li><li>We cover JPY, CNY, KRW, INR, TWD, AUD, CHF, EUR &amp; GBP charts. We have added equity and rates charts in China, India, and Korea where possible to help corroborate cross-market analysis.</li></ul></div></form></div></div>

To a 180-degree flip at the End of the Dollar hegemony and reserve system, opinions were pushed aggressively over mainstream CNN, FOX News networks, News Headlines, and fringe opinion makers looking for click baits.We look at sentiment shift, and is it different from when Dollar peaked in October 2022?We cover JPY, CNY, KRW, INR, TWD, AUD, CHF, EUR &amp; GBP charts. We have added equity and rates charts in China, India, and Korea where possible to help corroborate cross-market analysis.

FX & Rates

<ul><li>U.S. interest rates have been climbing since early January 2024 after reaching their lowest points between December 27th and January 11th.</li><li>For example, the yield on 2-year Treasury bonds has increased by 52 basis points (bps), and the yield on 10-year bonds has risen by 49 bps since their respective lows.</li><li>Similarly, the Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the U.S. dollar against a basket of other currencies, experienced its weakest point on December 28th, 2023.</li></ul>

U.S. interest rates have been climbing since early January 2024 after reaching their lowest points between December 27th and January 11th.For example, the yield on 2-year Treasury bonds has increased by 52 basis points (bps), and the yield on 10-year bonds has risen by 49 bps since their respective lows.Similarly, the Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the U.S. dollar against a basket of other currencies, experienced its weakest point on December 28th, 2023.

US Dollar: Trend Reversal or Start of Bull Run

External broker reports, Nordea

Nordea

External broker reports

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

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<ul>
<li>In July, we observe a significant decrease in overall risk levels.</li>
<li>Currently, there are no currencies labeled as high risk, and 27 currencies are labeled as low risk.</li>
<li>Regarding the Russian ruble, it remains in the green territory.</li>
</ul>
<p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>


In July, we observe a significant decrease in overall risk levels.
Currently, there are no currencies labeled as high risk, and 27 currencies are labeled as low risk.
Regarding the Russian ruble, it remains in the green territory.

Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

<ul><li>After a 50 bp hike three times a row, RBI softened and increased the repo rate by 35 basis points to 6.25%.</li><li>Consequently, the standing deposit facility (SDF) rate stands adjusted to 6%, and the marginal standing facility (MSF) rate and the Bank Rate to 6.50%</li><li>The basic facts on the ground have not changed much since the last policy in September-end: global headwinds, inflationary pressures arising from both exogenous and endogenous sources, and adverse terms of trade balanced against an economy exhibiting nascent growth with all the growth engines - industrial, agricultural and service sectors - in early stages of combustion.</li></ul>

After a 50 bp hike three times a row, RBI softened and increased the repo rate by 35 basis points to 6.25%.Consequently, the standing deposit facility (SDF) rate stands adjusted to 6%, and the marginal standing facility (MSF) rate and the Bank Rate to 6.50%The basic facts on the ground have not changed much since the last policy in September-end: global headwinds, inflationary pressures arising from both exogenous and endogenous sources, and adverse terms of trade balanced against an economy exhibiting nascent growth with all the growth engines - industrial, agricultural and service sectors - in early stages of combustion.

Technical Analysis

<div data-attrs='{"url":"https://gordianknot.substack.com/subscribe?","text":"Subscribe"}'><div><form class="subscription-widget-subscribe"><ul><li><span style="font-size: var(--content-font-size);">I usually work with a base case view and not the most optimistic or pessimistic take, and this note is no different. </span></li><li><span style="font-size: var(--content-font-size);">Its approach is forming an opinion on more probable in the next move and avoiding click baits 2-3 σ price targets.</span></li><li>I was expecting to do this note the following Monday as I thought with the NPC meeting and directive to state banks to act accordingly, any downward pressure on CNY would be avoided or measured.</li></ul></form></div></div>

I usually work with a base case view and not the most optimistic or pessimistic take, and this note is no different. Its approach is forming an opinion on more probable in the next move and avoiding click baits 2-3 σ price targets.I was expecting to do this note the following Monday as I thought with the NPC meeting and directive to state banks to act accordingly, any downward pressure on CNY would be avoided or measured.

India

The Indian rupee is the official currency of India. 

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INR (USDINR CURNCY)

US Dollar is Dead Redux

This note extensively focuses on sentiment as the market is overwhelmed with the Negative Dollar narrative that is mainstream. And it begs the...

Untying The Gordian Knot

US Dollar: Trend Reversal or Start of Bull Run

U.S. interest rates have been climbing since early January 2024 after reaching their lowest points between December 27th and January 11th.

Untying The Gordian Knot

EM Traffic Light July 2023

In July, we observe a significant decrease in overall risk levels. Currently, there are no currencies labeled as high risk, and 27 currencies are...

Nordea

RBI Rate Decision

Consequently, the standing deposit facility (SDF) rate stands adjusted to 6%, and the marginal standing facility (MSF) rate and the Bank Rate to 6.50%

Untying The Gordian Knot

Consequential Currency

I usually work with a base case view and not the most optimistic or pessimistic take, and this note is no different. Its approach is forming an...

Untying The Gordian Knot

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)