Founder, BWS Financial Inc

Hamed Khorsand

Founder

Independent Stock Specific Research

BWS Financial Inc

BWS provides independent stock specific research focused on companies with distinct value that are going through a special situation where there is a tangible catalyst not priced in. The catalyst can be anything from new product, restructuring, M&A, management change, change in business strategy, etc. BWS’s focus is to understand the change and evaluate the potential return for investors.

BWS utilizes a self formed proprietary approach in discovering stocks by putting great emphasis on deep research. BWS does generate short recommendations following a similar criteria.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul type="disc"><li>Demand for fragrances continues to outpace expectations with Inter Parfums (IPAR) reporting preliminary third quarters sales materially more than we were forecasting. While we have been steadfast on proclaiming IPAR’s sales guidance as too light, we were not expecting the level of outperformance IPAR experienced in the third quarter.</li></ul> <ul type="disc"><li>The growth in sales is due to the return of the consumer and introduction of several new products this year. The product pipeline is expanding with the addition of Moncler and Salvatore Ferragamo this year and Donna Karan in 2022.</li></ul> <ul type="disc"><li>IPAR is facing some supply chain challenges by not being able to meet market demand. IPAR is projecting fourth quarter sales to decline more than normal from the third quarter due to uncertainties with logistics. IPAR is asserting they are taking a conservative stance while we believe management might be trying to tame Wall Street estimates after their third quarter performance.</li></ul>

Demand for fragrances continues to outpace expectations with Inter Parfums (IPAR) reporting preliminary third quarters sales materially more than we were forecasting. While we have been steadfast on proclaiming IPAR’s sales guidance as too light, we were not expecting the level of outperformance IPAR experienced in the third quarter. The growth in sales is due to the return of the consumer and introduction of several new products this year. The product pipeline is expanding with the addition of Moncler and Salvatore Ferragamo this year and Donna Karan in 2022. IPAR is facing some supply chain challenges by not being able to meet market demand. IPAR is projecting fourth quarter sales to decline more than normal from the third quarter due to uncertainties with logistics. IPAR is asserting they are taking a conservative stance while we believe management might be trying to tame Wall Street estimates after their third quarter performance.

<ul type="disc"><li>
Inter Parfums (IPAR) announced it has signed a license to develop and sell fragrances under the Donna Karan and DKNY brands beginning in the second half of 2022. This is the second license win IPAR has announced in the last six months, the prior being Salvatore Ferragamo.</li></ul> <ul type="disc"><li>IPAR won the Donna Karan license away from Estee Lauder (EL) who had been the exclusive licensee since the inception of the brand’s fragrance line. IPAR’s license would begin on July 1, 2022 by taking over the fragrances already on the market.</li></ul> <ul type="disc"><li>IPAR’s stock has always received a relatively high valuation due to the steady growth the business has experienced in the past. The addition of Donna Karan should have a positive contribution to earnings in 2022 and 2023 and is not being fully considered in the consensus estimates nor in the current valuation.</li></ul>


Inter Parfums (IPAR) announced it has signed a license to develop and sell fragrances under the Donna Karan and DKNY brands beginning in the second half of 2022. This is the second license win IPAR has announced in the last six months, the prior being Salvatore Ferragamo. IPAR won the Donna Karan license away from Estee Lauder (EL) who had been the exclusive licensee since the inception of the brand’s fragrance line. IPAR’s license would begin on July 1, 2022 by taking over the fragrances already on the market. IPAR’s stock has always received a relatively high valuation due to the steady growth the business has experienced in the past. The addition of Donna Karan should have a positive contribution to earnings in 2022 and 2023 and is not being fully considered in the consensus estimates nor in the current valuation.

<ul type="disc"><li>
Inter Parfums (IPAR) disclosed demand was running ahead of supply even though ad spending continues to trail the target level the Company tries to spend every year. IPAR had already disclosed its second quarter sales leaving the official announcement for more of the underpinnings of the business.</li></ul> <ul type="disc"><li>The release of new fragrances this year has been met with greater consumer demand than expected even though duty-free stores remain mostly closed. IPAR plans to have new fragrances for its top brands next year as well.</li></ul> <ul type="disc"><li>The addition of Salvatore Ferragamo to IPAR’s product portfolio sets the course for further growth in 2022.</li></ul> <ul type="disc"><li>Overall demand environment would support IPAR exceeding sales guidance prior to adding in the benefits of the Ferragamo license.</li></ul> <ul type="disc"><li>Our price target is now $100 from $80 to reflect our 2022 earnings forecast.</li></ul>


Inter Parfums (IPAR) disclosed demand was running ahead of supply even though ad spending continues to trail the target level the Company tries to spend every year. IPAR had already disclosed its second quarter sales leaving the official announcement for more of the underpinnings of the business. The release of new fragrances this year has been met with greater consumer demand than expected even though duty-free stores remain mostly closed. IPAR plans to have new fragrances for its top brands next year as well. The addition of Salvatore Ferragamo to IPAR’s product portfolio sets the course for further growth in 2022. Overall demand environment would support IPAR exceeding sales guidance prior to adding in the benefits of the Ferragamo license. Our price target is now $100 from $80 to reflect our 2022 earnings forecast.

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

The “Big” rally has now faded less than a week from its start. While many point to a robust economy, strong GDP, and a strengthening U.S. dollar as the bellwether of global currencies, something seems amiss. Higher interest rates have doused the market’s advance, with 10-year yields double what they once were just three years ago. Investors are being jostled about as a determination is made as to whether the Fed has gone too far and too fast. Our concern here is that the Fed is creating a conundrum, indicating that higher rates are still forthcoming despite what we, and the market, are viewing as the possible end of the bull market...In our November Strategy publication, we outline a host of indicators we are watching for signs of the market's health.  In addition we highlight a number of actionable setups within Health care, Consumer Staples and Technology.

The “Big” rally has now faded less than a week from its start. While many point to a robust economy, strong GDP, and a strengthening U.S. dollar as the bellwether of global currencies, something seems amiss. Higher interest rates have doused the market’s advance, with 10-year yields double what they once were just three years ago. Investors are being jostled about as a determination is made as to whether the Fed has gone too far and too fast. Our concern here is that the Fed is creating a conundrum, indicating that higher rates are still forthcoming despite what we, and the market, are viewing as the possible end of the bull market...In our November Strategy publication, we outline a host of indicators we are watching for signs of the market's health.  In addition we highlight a number of actionable setups within Health care, Consumer Staples and Technology.

U.S. Equity Strategy & Sector Commentaries: Defensive Sectors Leading = Unhealthy Market

United States

Inter Parfums, Inc. manufactures, markets, and distributes a wide array of fragrances and fragrance related products. The Company's European-based operations produce and distribute prestige fragrance products primarily under license with brand owners. It's U.S.-based operations primarily produce and sell fragrance and personal care products under several specialty retail brands.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Inter Parfums (IPAR US)

IPAR: Outperforming Expectations

IPAR issued Q3 sales well ahead of our forecast and Street estimates. An increase in demand for all of IPAR's brands along with the introduction of...

BWS Financial Inc

IPAR: License to Expand

IPAR winning the license to make fragrances for Donna Karan and DKNY brands is significant. The Company is anticipating Donna Karan to become a...

BWS Financial Inc

IPAR: Extended Growth Story, PT to $100

The increase in demand IPAR is experiencing should spill over into 2022 with new fragrance releases and the inclusion of managing the fragrance...

BWS Financial Inc

U.S. Equity Strategy & Sector Commentaries: Defensive Sectors Leading = Unhealthy Market

The “Big” rally has now faded less than a week from its start. While many point to a robust economy, strong GDP, and a strengthening U.S. dollar as...

Vermilion Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)