Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

While the S&amp;P 500 has hit marginal new highs, price action of the S&amp;P 500 and the price and RS of several Sectors/subsectors is similar to the periods leading up to the October 2018 and May 2019 breakdowns. We draw several similarities in today’s report, and we continue to believe upside is likely to be muted from here barring additional positive developments.

While the S&amp;P 500 has hit marginal new highs, price action of the S&amp;P 500 and the price and RS of several Sectors/subsectors is similar to the periods leading up to the October 2018 and May 2019 breakdowns. We draw several similarities in today’s report, and we continue to believe upside is likely to be muted from here barring additional positive developments.

U.S. Equities: Mixed Signals Punctuate Muted Outlook

EURO STOXX 50 Price EUR / Technical Analysis

This report highlights actionable set ups from predominately European, developed markets, and is supportive of our view that Europe is bottoming, a viewpoint that remains far from consensus. Within Europe, we put a spotlight on Germany’s DAX and France’s CAC 40. Today’s recommendations are primarily from cyclical Sectors, however European Consumer Staples also exhibits bottoming RS.

This report highlights actionable set ups from predominately European, developed markets, and is supportive of our view that Europe is bottoming, a viewpoint that remains far from consensus. Within Europe, we put a spotlight on Germany’s DAX and France’s CAC 40. Today’s recommendations are primarily from cyclical Sectors, however European Consumer Staples also exhibits bottoming RS. 

Developed Markets Chart Book: Europe in Focus

Making sense of the Global Market, Euromonitor International Ltd.

Yu Mitsuhashi

Making sense of the Global Market

Euromonitor International Ltd.

We are a global market research company focused on industries, countries, economies and consumers worldwide. Our cross-country comparable research helps your organisation identify opportunities and develop growth strategies in countries and regions across the globe. With offices around the world, 1,200 analysts in 100 countries and market research on every key trend and driver, we give you powerful access to the real story behind consumer change.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul class=""><li>Luxury hotels (5-star plus) revenues declined by 3% in current value terms in 2017, to sales of SGD1.7 billion</li><li>Hotels in Singapore face an oversupply of rooms and falling business arrivals</li><li>Marina Bay Sands leads brands of luxury hotels in 2016, with a 27% value share</li><li>Luxury hotels is expected to register a 1% value CAGR at constant 2017 prices, reaching SGD1.8 billion in 2022</li></ul>

Luxury hotels (5-star plus) revenues declined by 3% in current value terms in 2017, to sales of SGD1.7 billionHotels in Singapore face an oversupply of rooms and falling business arrivalsMarina Bay Sands leads brands of luxury hotels in 2016, with a 27% value shareLuxury hotels is expected to register a 1% value CAGR at constant 2017 prices, reaching SGD1.8 billion in 2022

<ul><li>Retail current value sales grow by 6% in 2017 to reach THB33.3 billion</li><li>Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT) promotes Thailand for MICE and medical tourism</li><li>Luxury hotels sees slower retail current value sales growth compared with 2016</li><li>Central Plaza Hotel leads luxury hotels in 2016</li><li>A 3% retail value CAGR at constant 2017 prices is expected over the forecast period to reach THB39.0 billion in 2022</li></ul>

Retail current value sales grow by 6% in 2017 to reach THB33.3 billionTourism Authority of Thailand (TAT) promotes Thailand for MICE and medical tourismLuxury hotels sees slower retail current value sales growth compared with 2016Central Plaza Hotel leads luxury hotels in 2016A 3% retail value CAGR at constant 2017 prices is expected over the forecast period to reach THB39.0 billion in 2022

Sector Capsule: Luxury Hotels (5-Star Plus) In Thailand

<ul class=""><li>Lodging in Singapore underperforms in 2017, with value sales of SGD4.9 billon representing a 2% fall from the previous year</li></ul><ul><li>A glut of new hotel rooms and unfavourable regulations have adversely affected sales of hotels and short-term rentals</li></ul><ul><li>Lodging is expected to recover in the long run, but will achieve only a marginal value CAGR at constant 2017 prices over the forecast period, and reach SGD5.0 billion in 2022</li></ul>

Lodging in Singapore underperforms in 2017, with value sales of SGD4.9 billon representing a 2% fall from the previous yearA glut of new hotel rooms and unfavourable regulations have adversely affected sales of hotels and short-term rentalsLodging is expected to recover in the long run, but will achieve only a marginal value CAGR at constant 2017 prices over the forecast period, and reach SGD5.0 billion in 2022

United Kingdom

InterContinental Hotels Group PLC owns and operates a portfolio of hotel businesses. The Company manages hotel loyalty and priority club rewards programs. InterContinental Hotels Group serves customers worldwide.

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InterContinental Hotels Group (IHG LN)

U.S. Equities: Mixed Signals Punctuate Muted Outlook

While the S&P 500 has hit marginal new highs, price action of the S&P 500 and the price and RS of several Sectors/subsectors is similar to...

Vermilion Research

Developed Markets Chart Book: Europe in Focus

This report highlights actionable set ups from predominately European, developed markets, and is supportive of our view that Europe is bottoming, a...

Vermilion Research

Luxury Hotels (5-Star Plus) In Singapore

Luxury hotels (5-star plus) revenues declined by 3% in current value terms in 2017, to sales of SGD1.7 billion Hotels in Singapore face an...

Euromonitor International Ltd.

Sector Capsule: Luxury Hotels (5-Star Plus) In Thailand

Retail current value sales grow by 6% in 2017 to reach THB33.3 billion Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT) promotes Thailand for MICE and medical...

Euromonitor International Ltd.

Lodging in Singapore

Lodging in Singapore underperforms in 2017, with value sales of SGD4.9 billon representing a 2% fall from the previous yearA glut of new hotel...

Euromonitor International Ltd.

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