Fundamental Short Selling Research

Eric Fernandez, CFA

TwoRiversAnalytics

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>This model seeks companies that are potentially “overearning”, defined as companies with unusually high margins relative to their own history or relative to the industry. </li>
<li>The reasons for the margin increases are sometimes unsustainable or fraudulent. The  critical judgement involves to what extent unsustainable margins are embedded in a company’s forecasts and/or the stock’s valuation. </li>
<li>These shorts tend to have moderate to higher betas, higher valuations due to recent strong results and good short responses to subsequently disappointing earnings.</li>
</ul>


This model seeks companies that are potentially “overearning”, defined as companies with unusually high margins relative to their own history or relative to the industry. 
The reasons for the margin increases are sometimes unsustainable or fraudulent. The  critical judgement involves to what extent unsustainable margins are embedded in a company’s forecasts and/or the stock’s valuation. 
These shorts tend to have moderate to higher betas, higher valuations due to recent strong results and good short responses to subsequently disappointing earnings.


Overearning Short Candidates: Builders FirstSource, IBM, Forward Air Co, Deere & Co.

Equity Long-Short Analyst

Pyari Menon

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>We write about one stock each from the large, mid and small cap portfolios, briefly giving the reasons behind their the innovation scores and inclusion in the portfolio.  </li>
<li>The three companies are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/johnson-johnson-831a1ab9-b291-4564-99b0-dc7f8d2b8175" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26818:1" rel="noopener">Johnson &amp; Johnson (JNJ UN)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mondelez-international-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8111:1" rel="noopener">Mondelez International (MDLZ US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/qorvo-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11965:1" rel="noopener">Qorvo Inc (QRVO US), which have the highest weighting in each portfolio</a>
</li>
<li>For the week the large cap portfolio was up 1.2%, the midcap was up 1.4% and the small cap was up 0.9%, all in US$ terms.  </li>
</ul>


We write about one stock each from the large, mid and small cap portfolios, briefly giving the reasons behind their the innovation scores and inclusion in the portfolio.  
The three companies are Johnson &amp; Johnson (JNJ UN) , Mondelez International (MDLZ US) and Qorvo Inc (QRVO US), which have the highest weighting in each portfolio

For the week the large cap portfolio was up 1.2%, the midcap was up 1.4% and the small cap was up 0.9%, all in US$ terms.  


How the Portfolios Did for the First Week

<ul>
<li>We built a large cap, a mid cap and a small cap portfolio of twenty stocks each. The constituents are based on how technical publications score and rank their innovations </li>
<li>Only algo driven scores were considered to pick the stocks. Metrics like sales and profit growth, cashflow, leverage, returns, margins, valuations, estimates, news flow, price momentum were NOT considered</li>
<li>The portfolios are market cap weighted. We avoided including the mega caps Apple, Microsoft, Amazon and Google, due to the significant skew their weights will have on the portfolio</li>
</ul>


We built a large cap, a mid cap and a small cap portfolio of twenty stocks each. The constituents are based on how technical publications score and rank their innovations 
Only algo driven scores were considered to pick the stocks. Metrics like sales and profit growth, cashflow, leverage, returns, margins, valuations, estimates, news flow, price momentum were NOT considered
The portfolios are market cap weighted. We avoided including the mega caps Apple, Microsoft, Amazon and Google, due to the significant skew their weights will have on the portfolio


Portfolios Built Based on Innovation Score by Datamining Technical Publications

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

International Business Machines / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>IBM delivered an all-around beat with over $14 billion in revenue and tremendous growth throughout the portfolio resulting in a sharp recovery in its stock price.</li><li>Technology continues to be a key source of competitive advantage, and there is still a healthy market for hybrid cloud and AI solutions.</li><li>Consistent double-digit revenue growth at IBM Consulting, satisfying client demand for digital transformations.</li></ul>

IBM delivered an all-around beat with over $14 billion in revenue and tremendous growth throughout the portfolio resulting in a sharp recovery in its stock price.Technology continues to be a key source of competitive advantage, and there is still a healthy market for hybrid cloud and AI solutions.Consistent double-digit revenue growth at IBM Consulting, satisfying client demand for digital transformations.

IBM Corporation: Acquisition-Led Growth In The Cloud Market & Other Drivers

<ul><li>As a legacy tech company, IBM may have seen a slowdown in its growth trajectory but its acquisition-led growth approach continues to work.</li><li>With this performance, the company is maintaining its model of mid-single-digit revenue growth and a double-digit performance in IBM Consulting.</li><li>In this report, we have carried out a fundamental analysis of the historical financial statements of the company.</li></ul>

As a legacy tech company, IBM may have seen a slowdown in its growth trajectory but its acquisition-led growth approach continues to work.With this performance, the company is maintaining its model of mid-single-digit revenue growth and a double-digit performance in IBM Consulting.In this report, we have carried out a fundamental analysis of the historical financial statements of the company.

International Business Machines (IBM): The Databand Acquisition & Other Drivers

United States

International Business Machines Corporation (IBM) provides computer solutions through the use of advanced information technology. The Company's solutions include technologies, systems, products, services, software, and financing. IBM offers its products through its global sales and distribution organization, as well as through a variety of third party distributors and resellers.

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International Business Machines (IBM US)

Overearning Short Candidates: Builders FirstSource, IBM, Forward Air Co, Deere & Co.

Margin over-earners are fertile hunting ground for shorts if the reasons for the margin increase are unsustainable or fraudulent. This week:...

Eric Fernandez, CFA

How the Portfolios Did for the First Week

We assess how the three portfolios did for the first week and discuss about one stock each from the large, mid and small cap portfolios, briefly...

Pyari Menon

Portfolios Built Based on Innovation Score by Datamining Technical Publications

We publish a small cap, midcap and large cap portfolio each comprising of twenty stocks, built entirely based on innovations scores by datamining...

Pyari Menon

IBM Corporation: Acquisition-Led Growth In The Cloud Market & Other Drivers

IBM delivered an all-around beat with over $14 billion in revenue and tremendous growth throughout the portfolio resulting in a sharp recovery in...

Baptista Research

International Business Machines (IBM): The Databand Acquisition & Other Drivers

As a legacy tech company, IBM may have seen a slowdown in its growth trajectory but its acquisition-led growth approach continues to work. With...

Baptista Research

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