Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>We expect the MPC to hike interest rates by 0.25% to 1.75% in the meeting on March 29; this would cause the spread between the TH 2Y bond yield (1.71%) and the policy interest rate to turn negative, potentially leading to fund outflows, similar to what happened in January 2023.</li><li>Concerns over bank runs in the US have remained, as seen by the additional financial aid sought from the Fed as of March 22, 2023, of USD164bn (vs. USD165bn in the previous week).</li><li>The SET Index is expected to move in the range of 1,580-1,620 points.</li></ul>

We expect the MPC to hike interest rates by 0.25% to 1.75% in the meeting on March 29; this would cause the spread between the TH 2Y bond yield (1.71%) and the policy interest rate to turn negative, potentially leading to fund outflows, similar to what happened in January 2023.Concerns over bank runs in the US have remained, as seen by the additional financial aid sought from the Fed as of March 22, 2023, of USD164bn (vs. USD165bn in the previous week).The SET Index is expected to move in the range of 1,580-1,620 points.

SET Index Expected to Move in the Range of 1,580-1620 Points

<ul><li>US yield curves declined after problems emerged in the banking system, suggesting that the Fed will end its rate hikes sooner than expected</li><li>S&P 500 Index has a negative correlation with US 10Y bond yield (-70.00%)</li><li>The SET Index is expected to rebound, with the resistance at 1,565/1,575 points and the support at 1,543/1,535 points.</li></ul>

US yield curves declined after problems emerged in the banking system, suggesting that the Fed will end its rate hikes sooner than expectedS&P 500 Index has a negative correlation with US 10Y bond yield (-70.00%)The SET Index is expected to rebound, with the resistance at 1,565/1,575 points and the support at 1,543/1,535 points.

High Probability That the Fed Will Slow Down Rate Hikes Should Lift the SET

Thai Equity - Bottom-up - Equities, Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

Pi Research

Thai Equity - Bottom-up - Equities

Leading, full-service investment firm in Thailand

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

Pi Securities is a well known securities company with 40 years experience in the industry, serving more than 60,000 clients. We offer one - stop service providing full range of financial products and services including extensive Brokerage, Proprietary Trading (Equities and Bonds), Advisory Services, Structured Products.

Moreover, our new research team tailored for institutional clients to focus on mid to small cap of Thai equities and trading strategies. Our services offered to our premium clients also include arrangement of company or site visits to with the managements of Thai listed companies.

Note: Effective on 1 March 2022, Country Group Securities PCL changed its name to Pi Securities

<ul>
<li>We maintain HOLD rating but cut TP to Bt74.50(-5% from previous TP)to factor in earnings cut in ADVANC. 3Q22 earnings was in-line with our expectations at Bt2.5bn (-8%YoY, -7%QoQ). Meanwhile</li>
<li>Details on sale of THCOM to GULF INTUCH announced that its entire stake in THCOM will be sold to GULF at a price of Bt9.92/share(around 11% below current market price)</li>
<li>The deal will have to be approved by INTUCH’s shareholders (excluding GULF) with a 75% approval rate. Management is confident that the deal will be approved by end of 2022.</li>
</ul>


We maintain HOLD rating but cut TP to Bt74.50(-5% from previous TP)to factor in earnings cut in ADVANC. 3Q22 earnings was in-line with our expectations at Bt2.5bn (-8%YoY, -7%QoQ). Meanwhile
Details on sale of THCOM to GULF INTUCH announced that its entire stake in THCOM will be sold to GULF at a price of Bt9.92/share(around 11% below current market price)
The deal will have to be approved by INTUCH’s shareholders (excluding GULF) with a 75% approval rate. Management is confident that the deal will be approved by end of 2022.


INTUCH : THCOM Sale Is Positive for INTUCH

<ul><li>Acquisition of 41.1% of THCOM's shares at Bt9.92/share, with a total transaction value of Bt4.47bn: GULF will become the major shareholder of THCOM, replacing INTUCH, after the deal's completion in 1Q23.</li><li>The diversified investment in THCOM is aligned with the company's strategy to invest in infrastructure businesses, thus potentially broadening its business range.</li><li>There is upside to the 2023E fair price: The investment in THCOM will pose 0.9% upside risk to the current 2023E earnings forecast on the assumption that no shareholders accept the tender offer, which would lift our 24M forward fair price by around 0.7%.</li></ul>

Acquisition of 41.1% of THCOM's shares at Bt9.92/share, with a total transaction value of Bt4.47bn: GULF will become the major shareholder of THCOM, replacing INTUCH, after the deal's completion in 1Q23.The diversified investment in THCOM is aligned with the company's strategy to invest in infrastructure businesses, thus potentially broadening its business range.There is upside to the 2023E fair price: The investment in THCOM will pose 0.9% upside risk to the current 2023E earnings forecast on the assumption that no shareholders accept the tender offer, which would lift our 24M forward fair price by around 0.7%.

<ul><li>The SET Index is expected to move sideways up, with the resistance at 1,640/1,650 points and the support at 1,629 points (10-day EMA)/1,619 points (25-day EMA).</li><li>We recommend trading buy on ASIAN, TTB and COM7.</li><li>The market should be poised for gains, as the negative news about the Fed's intention to expedite interest rate hikes to bring down inflation has been absorbed.</li></ul>

The SET Index is expected to move sideways up, with the resistance at 1,640/1,650 points and the support at 1,629 points (10-day EMA)/1,619 points (25-day EMA).We recommend trading buy on ASIAN, TTB and COM7.The market should be poised for gains, as the negative news about the Fed's intention to expedite interest rate hikes to bring down inflation has been absorbed.

Recommendation: Buy on Weakness, Sell on Strength

Thailand

Intouch Holdings is a Thai investment holding company that focuses on the telecommunications, media, and technology (TMT) sectors, including digital businesses. It generates revenue primarily through dividends and share of profits from its major stakes in subsidiaries such as Advanced Info Service (AIS), Thailand's largest mobile operator, and Thaicom, Thailand's satellite operator. The company is headquartered in Bangkok, Thailand, and was founded in 1983.

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Intouch Holdings (INTUCH-R TB)

SET Index Expected to Move in the Range of 1,580-1620 Points

We expect the MPC to hike interest rates by 0.25% to 1.75% in the meeting on March 29; this would cause the spread between the TH 2Y bond yield...

Krungthai XSpring

High Probability That the Fed Will Slow Down Rate Hikes Should Lift the SET

US yield curves declined after problems emerged in the banking system, suggesting that the Fed will end its rate hikes sooner than...

Krungthai XSpring

INTUCH : THCOM Sale Is Positive for INTUCH

We maintain HOLD rating but cut TP to Bt74.50 (-5% from previous TP) to factor in earnings cut in ADVANC. 3Q22 earnings was in-line with our...

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

Big Cap Update

Acquisition of 41.1% of THCOM's shares at Bt9.92/share, with a total transaction value of Bt4.47bn: GULF will become the major shareholder of...

Krungthai XSpring

Recommendation: Buy on Weakness, Sell on Strength

The SET Index is expected to move sideways up, with the resistance at 1,640/1,650 points and the support at 1,629 points (10-day EMA)/1,619 points...

Krungthai XSpring

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