Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Event-Driven

<ul><li>The amalgamation will entail the ratios for allocations of shares in the NewCo to the shareholders of GULF and INTUCH as detailed below.</li><li>The amalgamation process and the establishment of the NewCo are expected to be completed in 2Q25.</li><li>The restructuring is aimed at reducing duplication in the shareholding structure and facilitating growth opportunities in the energy, infrastructure, and digital businesses.</li></ul>

The amalgamation will entail the ratios for allocations of shares in the NewCo to the shareholders of GULF and INTUCH as detailed below.The amalgamation process and the establishment of the NewCo are expected to be completed in 2Q25.The restructuring is aimed at reducing duplication in the shareholding structure and facilitating growth opportunities in the energy, infrastructure, and digital businesses.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Technically, the SET Index is expected to move sideways up, with the resistance at 1,395 points (50-day EMA)/1,400 points and the support at 1,380/1,372 points.</li><li>The index may rebound to 1,416/1,438 points again after it was able to reverse and breach the resistance at 1,390 points, forming a higher high and higher low pattern.</li><li>There is risk of the index returning to a downward direction again if it closes below the key support at 1,380 points.</li></ul>

Technically, the SET Index is expected to move sideways up, with the resistance at 1,395 points (50-day EMA)/1,400 points and the support at 1,380/1,372 points.The index may rebound to 1,416/1,438 points again after it was able to reverse and breach the resistance at 1,390 points, forming a higher high and higher low pattern.There is risk of the index returning to a downward direction again if it closes below the key support at 1,380 points.

Wait for Thailand’s 4Q23 GDP (Monday Morning) And U. Of Michigan Survey in US Tonight

<ul><li>Greater clarity after the general election should ease worries over a possible coup and a delay in the formation of a coalition government, which we expect to consist of three parties, i.e., the Pheu Thai Party, the Palang Pracharath Party and the Bhumjaithai Party, in our base-case scenario; this would reduce the risk premium of the SET Index, pushing it up to our target of 1,607 points.</li><li>Historical data from the five most recent elections shows that the SET increased by an average of +3.47% in the month after they were held; and in the week before and after the general elections took place, the index rose by 1.87% and 3.81%, respectively.</li><li>The biggest gainers were the finance, property development and ICT sectors. We thus recommend speculating on SIRI, SC, SCB, KBANK, CPALL, INTUCH, ADVANC and MINT.</li></ul>

Greater clarity after the general election should ease worries over a possible coup and a delay in the formation of a coalition government, which we expect to consist of three parties, i.e., the Pheu Thai Party, the Palang Pracharath Party and the Bhumjaithai Party, in our base-case scenario; this would reduce the risk premium of the SET Index, pushing it up to our target of 1,607 points.Historical data from the five most recent elections shows that the SET increased by an average of +3.47% in the month after they were held; and in the week before and after the general elections took place, the index rose by 1.87% and 3.81%, respectively.The biggest gainers were the finance, property development and ICT sectors. We thus recommend speculating on SIRI, SC, SCB, KBANK, CPALL, INTUCH, ADVANC and MINT.

Special Report: Election Rally (History to Repeat Itself)

Thai Equity - Bottom-up - Equities, Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

Pi Research

Thai Equity - Bottom-up - Equities

Leading, full-service investment firm in Thailand

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

Pi Securities is a well known securities company with 40 years experience in the industry, serving more than 60,000 clients. We offer one - stop service providing full range of financial products and services including extensive Brokerage, Proprietary Trading (Equities and Bonds), Advisory Services, Structured Products.

Moreover, our new research team tailored for institutional clients to focus on mid to small cap of Thai equities and trading strategies. Our services offered to our premium clients also include arrangement of company or site visits to with the managements of Thai listed companies.

Note: Effective on 1 March 2022, Country Group Securities PCL changed its name to Pi Securities

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We maintain HOLD rating but cut TP to Bt74.50(-5% from previous TP)to factor in earnings cut in ADVANC. 3Q22 earnings was in-line with our expectations at Bt2.5bn (-8%YoY, -7%QoQ). Meanwhile</li>
<li>Details on sale of THCOM to GULF INTUCH announced that its entire stake in THCOM will be sold to GULF at a price of Bt9.92/share(around 11% below current market price)</li>
<li>The deal will have to be approved by INTUCH’s shareholders (excluding GULF) with a 75% approval rate. Management is confident that the deal will be approved by end of 2022.</li>
</ul>


We maintain HOLD rating but cut TP to Bt74.50(-5% from previous TP)to factor in earnings cut in ADVANC. 3Q22 earnings was in-line with our expectations at Bt2.5bn (-8%YoY, -7%QoQ). Meanwhile
Details on sale of THCOM to GULF INTUCH announced that its entire stake in THCOM will be sold to GULF at a price of Bt9.92/share(around 11% below current market price)
The deal will have to be approved by INTUCH’s shareholders (excluding GULF) with a 75% approval rate. Management is confident that the deal will be approved by end of 2022.


INTUCH : THCOM Sale Is Positive for INTUCH

<ul>
<li>We downgrade to HOLD from BUY rating and cut TP to Bt78.75 (-4% from previous TP), based on 18.3% discount from SOTP valuation, implying 20.4xPE’23E. 1H22 earnings of ADVANC</li>
<li>1H22 earnings was below expectation 2Q22 net profit was at Bt2.6bn (-6% YoY, +3% QoQ). YoY decline was due to lower equity income from ADVANC, while QoQ increase </li>
<li>Equity income in 2Q22 was at Bt2.4bn (-14% YoY, flat QoQ).YoY declined due to higher marketing expenses and pressured ARPU. QoQ remained flat because the higher marketing costs were offset</li>
</ul>


We downgrade to HOLD from BUY rating and cut TP to Bt78.75 (-4% from previous TP), based on 18.3% discount from SOTP valuation, implying 20.4xPE’23E. 1H22 earnings of ADVANC
1H22 earnings was below expectation 2Q22 net profit was at Bt2.6bn (-6% YoY, +3% QoQ). YoY decline was due to lower equity income from ADVANC, while QoQ increase 
Equity income in 2Q22 was at Bt2.4bn (-14% YoY, flat QoQ).YoY declined due to higher marketing expenses and pressured ARPU. QoQ remained flat because the higher marketing costs were offset


INTUCH : Price War Led to Weak 1H22 Earnings

Thailand

Intouch Holdings Public Company Limited is a holding company that invests in diversified telecommunication and media and advertising businesses.  The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides television broadcasting, cellular phone and wireless services.

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Intouch Holdings (INTUCH TB)

GULF-INTUCH Amalgamation

Restructuring is aimed at reducing duplication in the shareholding structure and facilitating growth opportunities in the energy, infrastructure,...

Krungthai XSpring

Wait for Thailand’s 4Q23 GDP (Monday Morning) And U. Of Michigan Survey in US Tonight

Technically, the SET Index is expected to move sideways up, with the resistance at 1,395 points (50-day EMA)/1,400 points and the support at 1,380...

Krungthai XSpring

Special Report: Election Rally (History to Repeat Itself)

The biggest gainers were the finance, property development and ICT sectors. We thus recommend speculating on SIRI, SC, SCB, KBANK, CPALL, INTUCH,...

Krungthai XSpring

INTUCH : THCOM Sale Is Positive for INTUCH

We maintain HOLD rating but cut TP to Bt74.50 (-5% from previous TP) to factor in earnings cut in ADVANC. 3Q22 earnings was in-line with our...

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

INTUCH : Price War Led to Weak 1H22 Earnings

We downgrade to HOLD from BUY rating and cut TP to Bt78.75 (-4% from previous TP), based on 18.3% discount from SOTP valuation, implying...

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

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