European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Holdco discounts tightened in September: GBL to 28.1%, Industrivärden C to 6.9%, Investor B to 10.9%, Heineken Holding to 12.1%; Porsche SE widened to 31.6%; Rio Tinto DLC premium 21.6%.</li>
<li>Drivers: discounts compress with buybacks and bull markets. GBL cancelling repurchases; target sub-25% discount. Heineken Holding’s control structure sustains a spread. Swedish holdcos are investment-grade, high-quality, with low look-through discounts.</li>
<li>Catalysts: Vivendi’s AMF-driven mandatory-offer path, appeals pending, base-case €4.15 bid. Rio Tinto DLC unification could unlock $27–32B despite May vote. Porsche SE discount reflects deleveraging priority; legal overhang increasingly immaterial.</li>
</ul>


Holdco discounts tightened in September: GBL to 28.1%, Industrivärden C to 6.9%, Investor B to 10.9%, Heineken Holding to 12.1%; Porsche SE widened to 31.6%; Rio Tinto DLC premium 21.6%.
Drivers: discounts compress with buybacks and bull markets. GBL cancelling repurchases; target sub-25% discount. Heineken Holding’s control structure sustains a spread. Swedish holdcos are investment-grade, high-quality, with low look-through discounts.
Catalysts: Vivendi’s AMF-driven mandatory-offer path, appeals pending, base-case €4.15 bid. Rio Tinto DLC unification could unlock $27–32B despite May vote. Porsche SE discount reflects deleveraging priority; legal overhang increasingly immaterial.


Selected European HoldCos and DLC: September 2025 Report

<ul>
<li>Across Europe’s dual-class names, spreads mostly tightened: Atlas Copco B-to-A 10.8%, BMW prefs 7.2%, Volvo at par; notable wideners include Carlsberg B at 19.5% discount and SSAB B at 2.6%.</li>
<li>Drivers include index inclusion, liquidity and control: Volkswagen prefs gain from flows and €0.06 dividend uplift; Telecom Italia savings widen on arrears prospects; Handelsbanken and Fuchs maintain puzzling elevated premiums.</li>
<li>Actionables: long MFE A versus B as ProSieben settlement lifts liquidity; Grifols B versus A on deleveraging; Henkel ords versus prefs; Volkswagen prefs versus ords; monitor Ericsson, Investor, Industrivärden parity.</li>
</ul>


Across Europe’s dual-class names, spreads mostly tightened: Atlas Copco B-to-A 10.8%, BMW prefs 7.2%, Volvo at par; notable wideners include Carlsberg B at 19.5% discount and SSAB B at 2.6%.
Drivers include index inclusion, liquidity and control: Volkswagen prefs gain from flows and €0.06 dividend uplift; Telecom Italia savings widen on arrears prospects; Handelsbanken and Fuchs maintain puzzling elevated premiums.
Actionables: long MFE A versus B as ProSieben settlement lifts liquidity; Grifols B versus A on deleveraging; Henkel ords versus prefs; Volkswagen prefs versus ords; monitor Ericsson, Investor, Industrivärden parity.


Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: September'25 Report

<ul>
<li>MFE: A versus B discount widened to 32.2%. ProSiebenSat.1 tender issues new A shares, lifting A voting share from 12.64% toward ~19% at full take-up, supporting medium-term convergence.</li>
<li>Handelsbanken: B shares trade at a 62% premium despite far lower votes (ratio 55.17) and liquidity; history suggests mean reversion—bias long A / short B.</li>
<li>Telecom Italia: savings premium 11.4%. Three years of unpaid €0.0275 dividends (€0.0825 arrears). Payouts guided from 2026; Poste Italiane now largest shareholder, reinforcing governance stability.</li>
</ul>


MFE: A versus B discount widened to 32.2%. ProSiebenSat.1 tender issues new A shares, lifting A voting share from 12.64% toward ~19% at full take-up, supporting medium-term convergence.
Handelsbanken: B shares trade at a 62% premium despite far lower votes (ratio 55.17) and liquidity; history suggests mean reversion—bias long A / short B.
Telecom Italia: savings premium 11.4%. Three years of unpaid €0.0275 dividends (€0.0825 arrears). Payouts guided from 2026; Poste Italiane now largest shareholder, reinforcing governance stability.


Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: August '25 Report

<ul>
<li>GBL’s discount to NAV is compressing but remains wide versus peers — buybacks, portfolio moves, and dividends hint at a valuation shift.</li>
<li>Rio Tinto’s Australia-UK dual listing still trades at a premium — mean reversion potential remains as unification chatter simmers beneath the surface.</li>
<li>Vivendi’s looming mandatory offer from Bolloré reshapes stub trade dynamics — a narrowing discount points to accelerating corporate resolution.</li>
</ul>


GBL’s discount to NAV is compressing but remains wide versus peers — buybacks, portfolio moves, and dividends hint at a valuation shift.
Rio Tinto’s Australia-UK dual listing still trades at a premium — mean reversion potential remains as unification chatter simmers beneath the surface.
Vivendi’s looming mandatory offer from Bolloré reshapes stub trade dynamics — a narrowing discount points to accelerating corporate resolution.


Selected European HoldCos and DLC: July 2025 Report

<ul>
<li>Since mid-June, share price spreads have generally widened across the European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares, with 6 tightening and 13 widening.</li>
<li>The premium of non-voting, less liquid Handelsbanken B shares vs. A has widened to 59.2%; the discount of Grifols B has widened (Brookfield’s approach remains tentative and non-committal).</li>
<li>Recommended trades long preferred/short ords: Atlas Copco, BMW, Grifols, MFE Media-for-Europe. Recommended trades long ordinary / short preferred shares: Handelsbanken, Henkel.</li>
</ul>


Since mid-June, share price spreads have generally widened across the European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares, with 6 tightening and 13 widening.
The premium of non-voting, less liquid Handelsbanken B shares vs. A has widened to 59.2%; the discount of Grifols B has widened (Brookfield’s approach remains tentative and non-committal).
Recommended trades long preferred/short ords: Atlas Copco, BMW, Grifols, MFE Media-for-Europe. Recommended trades long ordinary / short preferred shares: Handelsbanken, Henkel.


Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: July '25 Report

Sweden

Investor AB is an industrial holding company. The Company owns significant shareholdings in major public multinational companies and conducts private equity activities in Europe, North America, and Asia. Investor takes an active ownership role in many of the companies it owns.

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Investor (INVEA SS)

Selected European HoldCos and DLC: September 2025 Report

Holdco discounts tightened in Sept. GBL buybacks aid narrowing; Swedish names near lows; HEIO spread persists. Optionality: Vivendi OPA, Rio Tinto...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: September'25 Report

This month’s color: MFE A/B narrows on ProSieben; VW prefs outpace ords; Atlas Copco & BMW tighten; Carlsberg B and SSAB B widen; TIM savings bid...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: August '25 Report

Across Europe’s liquid dual-class universe, share-price spreads have mainly tightened. Convergence plays: MFE A/B as A votes rise; TIM savings...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Selected European HoldCos and DLC: July 2025 Report

GBL’s discount is tightening, Rio Tinto’s dual listing offers DLC convergence upside, and Vivendi’s forced bid reshapes stub trade dynamics—three...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: July '25 Report

Since mid-June, share price spreads have generally widened across the European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares, with 6 tightening...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

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