European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>May saw selective convergence reassert itself across Europe’s dual-class universe, with broad tightening in several structurally wide and liquidity-driven spreads offsetting renewed widening in Carlsberg and Grifols.</li>
<li>Both median and mean tightened, confirming no systemic repricing of voting rights. Dispersion remains driven by liquidity, concentrated ownership, implementation constraints and episodic positioning reversals across Europe’s dual-class universe.</li>
<li>Handelsbanken, Media-for-Europe and Telecom Italia delivered the strongest tightening moves in May, while Carlsberg and Grifols reversed sharply, re-widening after April’s convergence phase.</li>
</ul>


May saw selective convergence reassert itself across Europe’s dual-class universe, with broad tightening in several structurally wide and liquidity-driven spreads offsetting renewed widening in Carlsberg and Grifols.
Both median and mean tightened, confirming no systemic repricing of voting rights. Dispersion remains driven by liquidity, concentrated ownership, implementation constraints and episodic positioning reversals across Europe’s dual-class universe.
Handelsbanken, Media-for-Europe and Telecom Italia delivered the strongest tightening moves in May, while Carlsberg and Grifols reversed sharply, re-widening after April’s convergence phase.


Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: May '26 Report

<ul>
<li>Dispersion persists across European holdcos, with discounts anchored by structure and governance rather than valuation. Convergence remains selective and catalyst-driven, not a broad-based re-rating.</li>
<li>Event-Driven asymmetry remains concentrated, with Vivendi offering legal-driven optionality and Rio conditional on strategic pressure, while most structures trade within stable equilibrium ranges.</li>
<li>Elsewhere, discounts reflect steady-state positioning, with GBL tightening on execution, Porsche stable at structural levels, and Nordic holdcos trading near parity as quality proxies.</li>
</ul>


Dispersion persists across European holdcos, with discounts anchored by structure and governance rather than valuation. Convergence remains selective and catalyst-driven, not a broad-based re-rating.
Event-Driven asymmetry remains concentrated, with Vivendi offering legal-driven optionality and Rio conditional on strategic pressure, while most structures trade within stable equilibrium ranges.
Elsewhere, discounts reflect steady-state positioning, with GBL tightening on execution, Porsche stable at structural levels, and Nordic holdcos trading near parity as quality proxies.


Selected European HoldCos and DLC: April 2026 Report

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Global technicals still relay a bullish outlook. Breakouts and bullish inflections are widespread, especially in Europe and Japan right now, as well as once-laggard sectors like energy.  In addition to our weekly global market recap and outlook, today’s report highlights actionable investment opportunities in global energy stocks and European financials.

Global technicals still relay a bullish outlook. Breakouts and bullish inflections are widespread, especially in Europe and Japan right now, as well as once-laggard sectors like energy.  In addition to our weekly global market recap and outlook, today’s report highlights actionable investment opportunities in global energy stocks and European financials.

Buy Energy Stocks; Brent Is Bottoming; Japan Breaking Out; Buying Opportunity in European Financials

Independent Insight Provider

Stewart Paterson

Taurus Advisors LLP

Macroeconomics

The trade weighted dollar Index is within a whisker of breaking out of its two year long consolidation phase. There are two fairly imminent catalysts that could give the dollar a final push through resistance and lead it to trend higher: The Italian referendum on constitutional reform on 4th December and the FOMC meeting on December 14th. Although in theory the Italian referendum actually has nothing to do with Italy's continued membership of the Eurozone and hence the EU (remember Greece was…

The trade weighted dollar Index is within a whisker of breaking out of its two year long consolidation phase. There are two fairly imminent catalysts that could give the dollar a final push through resistance and lead it to trend higher: The Italian referendum on constitutional reform on 4th December and the FOMC meeting on December 14th. Although in theory the Italian referendum actually has nothing to do with Italy's continued membership of the Eurozone and hence the EU (remember Greece was…

Money Matters: The Road to Italeave and a Dollar Break-Out?

<ul>
<li>April saw dispersion re-expand, with median and mean widening modestly, confirming no systemic repricing of voting rights but renewed divergence across liquidity- and structure-driven dual-class pairs.</li>
<li>Convergence remained selective: Grifols, MFE and Sixt tightened, while Carlsberg, Fuchs and Handelsbanken re-widened, highlighting the episodic nature of ord/pref convergence.</li>
<li>Telecom Italia transitions towards corporate-action, while Nordic anomalies—particularly Handelsbanken—continue to dominate dispersion and constrain arbitrage.</li>
</ul>


April saw dispersion re-expand, with median and mean widening modestly, confirming no systemic repricing of voting rights but renewed divergence across liquidity- and structure-driven dual-class pairs.
Convergence remained selective: Grifols, MFE and Sixt tightened, while Carlsberg, Fuchs and Handelsbanken re-widened, highlighting the episodic nature of ord/pref convergence.
Telecom Italia transitions towards corporate-action, while Nordic anomalies—particularly Handelsbanken—continue to dominate dispersion and constrain arbitrage.


Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: April '26 Report

Sweden

Investor AB is an industrial holding company. The Company owns significant shareholdings in major public multinational companies and conducts private equity activities in Europe, North America, and Asia. Investor takes an active ownership role in many of the companies it owns.

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Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: May '26 Report

European dual-class spreads tightened again in May as liquidity-driven convergence resumed. Handelsbanken, MFE and Telecom Italia led compression,...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Selected European HoldCos and DLC: April 2026 Report

European holdcos remain dispersed: Vivendi at deep discount, Rio offers conditional optionality, while most trade near equilibrium. Convergence...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Buy Energy Stocks; Brent Is Bottoming; Japan Breaking Out; Buying Opportunity in European Financials

Global technicals still relay a bullish outlook. Breakouts and bullish inflections are widespread, especially in Europe and Japan right now, as...

Vermilion Research

Money Matters: The Road to Italeave and a Dollar Break-Out?

The trade weighted dollar Index is within a whisker of breaking out of its two year long consolidation phase. There are two fairly imminent...

Stewart Paterson

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: April '26 Report

European dual-class spreads re-widened in April, with mean rising on right-tail moves. Liquidity-driven convergence persists, while structural...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

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