HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The rally of TCM companies has probably come to an end. But we think there would be good trading opportunities in 23Q4. Things could become challenging again in 24Q1.</li>
<li>If P/E is used when calculating the valuation of innovative pharmaceutical companies, unreasonable situations may arise. Sales profit rather than net profit could be a better choice for P/E.</li>
<li>Although iRay’s current P/E has fallen in reasonable range, due to concerns about its long-term growth prospects, valuation could further decline in long term. So, just short-term trade is recommended.</li>
</ul>


The rally of TCM companies has probably come to an end. But we think there would be good trading opportunities in 23Q4. Things could become challenging again in 24Q1.
If P/E is used when calculating the valuation of innovative pharmaceutical companies, unreasonable situations may arise. Sales profit rather than net profit could be a better choice for P/E.
Although iRay’s current P/E has fallen in reasonable range, due to concerns about its long-term growth prospects, valuation could further decline in long term. So, just short-term trade is recommended.


China Healthcare Weekly (Aug.4) - TCM Rally Ends, P/E Ratio Becomes Ineffective, IRay Technology

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The review period for the September rebalance ends 31 July. We expect the changes to be announced 25 August with the implementation taking place after the close on 8 September.</li>
<li>We expect the index committee to continue using a 6-month minimum listing history resulting in two changes to the index.</li>
<li>One way turnover is estimated at 3.45% resulting in a one-way trade of CNY 3,675m. The impact on the deletions will be larger than that on the inclusions.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the September rebalance ends 31 July. We expect the changes to be announced 25 August with the implementation taking place after the close on 8 September.
We expect the index committee to continue using a 6-month minimum listing history resulting in two changes to the index.
One way turnover is estimated at 3.45% resulting in a one-way trade of CNY 3,675m. The impact on the deletions will be larger than that on the inclusions.


STAR50 Index Rebalance Preview: One High Probability Change; One 'It Depends'

AVIC (Chengdu) UAS Co Ltd / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The index committee has used a 6-month minimum listing history and that results in two changes. This is the first rebalance with less than 5 changes at a review.</li>
<li>One way turnover is estimated at 1.03% and will result in a one-way trade of CNY 1,025m. Given the adds are new listings, there will be some reverse funding flow.</li>
<li>There appears to be little pre-positioning on the adds while there is a bigger buildup on the deletes.</li>
</ul>


The index committee has used a 6-month minimum listing history and that results in two changes. This is the first rebalance with less than 5 changes at a review.
One way turnover is estimated at 1.03% and will result in a one-way trade of CNY 1,025m. Given the adds are new listings, there will be some reverse funding flow.
There appears to be little pre-positioning on the adds while there is a bigger buildup on the deletes.


STAR50 Index Rebalance: Two Changes in June (As Expected)

<ul>
<li>The review period for the June rebalance ends 28 April. We expect the changes to be announced 26 May with the implementation taking place after the close on 9 June.</li>
<li>Using a 12-month minimum listing history results in no index changes. Using a 6-month minimum listing history results in two changes - we think this is what will be used.</li>
<li>The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes but both sets of stocks have underperformed the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sse-science-and-technology-innovation-board-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29279:1" rel="noopener">SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX)</a> and the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/csi-smallcap-500-index-shanghai" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35347:1" rel="noopener">CSI Smallcap 500 Index - Shanghai (SH000905 INDEX)</a>. </li>
</ul>


The review period for the June rebalance ends 28 April. We expect the changes to be announced 26 May with the implementation taking place after the close on 9 June.
Using a 12-month minimum listing history results in no index changes. Using a 6-month minimum listing history results in two changes - we think this is what will be used.
The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes but both sets of stocks have underperformed the SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX) and the CSI Smallcap 500 Index - Shanghai (SH000905 INDEX). 


STAR50 Index Rebalance Preview: Changes Depend on Minimum Listing History

Jiangsu Cnano Technology  Lt / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The review period for the June rebalance ends 30 April. We expect the changes to be announced 26 May with the implementation taking place after the close on 9 June.</li>
<li>We expect the index committee to continue using a 6-month minimum listing history resulting in two changes to the index.</li>
<li>One way turnover is estimated at 1.6% resulting in a one-way trade of CNY 1,442m. The impact on the deletions will be larger than that on the inclusions.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the June rebalance ends 30 April. We expect the changes to be announced 26 May with the implementation taking place after the close on 9 June.
We expect the index committee to continue using a 6-month minimum listing history resulting in two changes to the index.
One way turnover is estimated at 1.6% resulting in a one-way trade of CNY 1,442m. The impact on the deletions will be larger than that on the inclusions.


STAR50 Index Rebalance Preview: Two Changes in June (Possibly)

China

iRay Technology Company Limited manufactures optical components. The Company produces and sells amorphous silicon flat detectors and other products. iRay Technology markets its products throughout China.

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iRay Technology (688301 CH)

China Healthcare Weekly (Aug.4) - TCM Rally Ends, P/E Ratio Becomes Ineffective, IRay Technology

Rally of TCM sector has probably ended. Traditional P/E ratio becomes ineffective sometimes. iRay’s current valuation is comfortable for trades,...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

STAR50 Index Rebalance Preview: One High Probability Change; One 'It Depends'

There could be 2 changes in September if a 6 month minimum listing history is used. Piotech was added to the CSI500 in June and there are multiple...

Brian Freitas

STAR50 Index Rebalance: Two Changes in June (As Expected)

There are 2 changes for the STAR50 Index as a 6-month minimum listing history is used. There is little increase in excess volume on the adds while...

Brian Freitas

STAR50 Index Rebalance Preview: Changes Depend on Minimum Listing History

There could be 2 index changes if a 6-month minimum listing history is used. The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes. But both...

Brian Freitas

STAR50 Index Rebalance Preview: Two Changes in June (Possibly)

There could be 2 changes to the index in June with a higher impact on the deletes than on the adds. The potential adds have started to o/p the...

Brian Freitas

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