Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>We currently forecast 10 stocks moving from MidCap to LargeCap, 10 stocks moving from LargeCap to MidCap, 9 stocks from SmallCap to MidCap, and 11 stocks from MidCap to SmallCap.</li>
<li>From the new listings, 2 stocks are expected to be added to Mid Cap, and multiple stocks to Small Cap.</li>
<li>There are multiple stocks among the AMFI changes that will be changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nse-nifty-next-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36053:1" rel="noopener">NSE Nifty Next 50 Index (NIFTYJR INDEX)</a> and/or Nifty Midcap 150 Index in September.</li>
</ul>


We currently forecast 10 stocks moving from MidCap to LargeCap, 10 stocks moving from LargeCap to MidCap, 9 stocks from SmallCap to MidCap, and 11 stocks from MidCap to SmallCap.
From the new listings, 2 stocks are expected to be added to Mid Cap, and multiple stocks to Small Cap.
There are multiple stocks among the AMFI changes that will be changes for the NSE Nifty Next 50 Index (NIFTYJR INDEX) and/or Nifty Midcap 150 Index in September.


AMFI Stock Reclassification Preview (Jun 2025): Plenty of Change With More Likely

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

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Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>IRB Infra: IRB Infrastructure Developers Limited (IRB) reported revenue/EBITDA/APAT of INR 17.8/7.4/60bn, beat/(miss) to our estimates of 5.9/-4.24/159% respectively</li><li>The order book (OB) as of Dec’24 stood at INR 315bn, with EPC contributing 10% (INR 32bn) and O&amp;M contributing 90% (INR 283bn)</li><li>Moreover, in the long term, the company is expecting opportunities under the PPP mode for BOT projects worth INR 2trn</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

IRB Infra: IRB Infrastructure Developers Limited (IRB) reported revenue/EBITDA/APAT of INR 17.8/7.4/60bn, beat/(miss) to our estimates of 5.9/-4.24/159% respectivelyThe order book (OB) as of Dec’24 stood at INR 315bn, with EPC contributing 10% (INR 32bn) and O&amp;M contributing 90% (INR 283bn)Moreover, in the long term, the company is expecting opportunities under the PPP mode for BOT projects worth INR 2trnContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: IRB Infra, Relaxo Footwears

<ul><li>Larsen &amp; Toubro: Larsen &amp; Toubro (LT) reported revenue/EBITDA/APAT at INR 615.5/63.6/33.9bn, a beat/(miss) of 6.3/0.6/1.5%</li><li>P&amp;M margins came in at 7.6% (+20bps YoY), and LT expects to maintain a positive YoY margin expansion trend in ensuing quarters and retained 8.2-8.25% guidance for FY25</li><li>Despite Q2FY25 being impacted by heavy monsoon, LT reported strong 20.6% YoY revenue growth and maintained 15/10% revenue/order inflow guidance for FY25</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Larsen &amp; Toubro: Larsen &amp; Toubro (LT) reported revenue/EBITDA/APAT at INR 615.5/63.6/33.9bn, a beat/(miss) of 6.3/0.6/1.5%P&amp;M margins came in at 7.6% (+20bps YoY), and LT expects to maintain a positive YoY margin expansion trend in ensuing quarters and retained 8.2-8.25% guidance for FY25Despite Q2FY25 being impacted by heavy monsoon, LT reported strong 20.6% YoY revenue growth and maintained 15/10% revenue/order inflow guidance for FY25Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: Larsen & Toubro, Prestige Estates, Voltas, Kaynes Technology

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY Index</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nse-nifty-next-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36053:1" rel="noopener">Nifty Next 50 Index</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nse-nifty-bank-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26811:1" rel="noopener">NSE Nifty Bank Index</a>, CNXIT Index, Nifty Midcap 150 Index, Nifty100 Low Volatility30 Index and the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cpse-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28191:1" rel="noopener">CPSE ETF</a> rebalance at the close tomorrow.</li>
<li>The round-trip trade across the indices is US$3.3bn and there are 13 stocks with over 1 day of ADV to trade from passive trackers.</li>
<li>Stocks with the largest inflows are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trent-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8410:1" rel="noopener">Trent</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bharat-electronics-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6636:1" rel="noopener">Bharat Electronics</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/canara-bank" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:543:1" rel="noopener">Canara Bank</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bharat-heavy-electricals" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:460:1" rel="noopener">Bharat Heavy Electricals</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oil-natural-gas-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3456:1" rel="noopener">Oil &amp; Natural Gas Corp</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/coal-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9117:1" rel="noopener">Coal India</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hindustan-aeronautics-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26747:1" rel="noopener">Hindustan Aeronautics</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/interglobe-aviation-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24877:1" rel="noopener">InterGlobe Aviation</a>.</li>
</ul>


The NIFTY Index, Nifty Next 50 Index, NSE Nifty Bank Index, CNXIT Index, Nifty Midcap 150 Index, Nifty100 Low Volatility30 Index and the CPSE ETF rebalance at the close tomorrow.
The round-trip trade across the indices is US$3.3bn and there are 13 stocks with over 1 day of ADV to trade from passive trackers.
Stocks with the largest inflows are Trent, Bharat Electronics, Canara Bank, Bharat Heavy Electricals, Oil &amp; Natural Gas Corp, Coal India, Hindustan Aeronautics and InterGlobe Aviation.


NIFTY Indices: Flows (Post Capping) At the Close Tomorrow; Round-Trip US$3.3bn

<ul>
<li>There are 19 changes a side for the NIFTY Midcap 150 Index at the September rebalance. There are many stocks with same-way flows from passive trackers of other indices.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 9.8% resulting in a one-way trade of INR 8.2bn (US$98m). With US$40.1bn tracking the index actively, the impact on the stocks will be much larger.</li>
<li>The adds have outperformed the deletes this year, though near-term performance has been meh. There was a similar trend in March and the adds could outperform nearer to implementation.</li>
</ul>


There are 19 changes a side for the NIFTY Midcap 150 Index at the September rebalance. There are many stocks with same-way flows from passive trackers of other indices.
Estimated one-way turnover is 9.8% resulting in a one-way trade of INR 8.2bn (US$98m). With US$40.1bn tracking the index actively, the impact on the stocks will be much larger.
The adds have outperformed the deletes this year, though near-term performance has been meh. There was a similar trend in March and the adds could outperform nearer to implementation.


NIFTY MIDCAP150 Index Rebalance: 19 Changes a Side; Lots of Overlap with Other Index Flow

India

IRB Infrastructure Developers Limited is an infrastructure development and construction company in India with significant experience in the roads and highways sector.  The Company is also involved in the real estate development sector.

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IRB Infrastructure Developers (IRB IN)

AMFI Stock Reclassification Preview (Jun 2025): Plenty of Change With More Likely

We currently forecast 40 migrations for the AMFI July reclassification. There are 2 new listings that could be added to MidCap. The forecast upward...

Brian Freitas

HSIE Results Daily: IRB Infra, Relaxo Footwears

IRB Infrastructure Developers Limited (IRB) reported revenue/EBITDA/APAT of INR 17.8/7.4/60bn, beat/(miss) to our estimates of 5.9/-4.24/159%...

HDFC Securities

HSIE Results Daily: Larsen & Toubro, Prestige Estates, Voltas, Kaynes Technology

Larsen & Toubro: Larsen & Toubro (LT) reported revenue/EBITDA/APAT at INR 615.5/63.6/33.9bn, a beat/(miss) of 6.3/0.6/1.5%

HDFC Securities

NIFTY Indices: Flows (Post Capping) At the Close Tomorrow; Round-Trip US$3.3bn

The next rebalance of the Nifty family of indices takes place at the close on 27 Sep. The round-trip trade is US$3.3bn and there are 13 stocks with...

Brian Freitas

NIFTY MIDCAP150 Index Rebalance: 19 Changes a Side; Lots of Overlap with Other Index Flow

There are 19 changes for the index in Sep. Estimated one-way turnover is 9.8% resulting in a one-way trade of INR 8.2bn (US$98m). There are many...

Brian Freitas

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