Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

Equity Bottom-Up

China Pacific Insurance / Equity Bottom-Up

*Weak 3Q21 Results: China Pacific Insurance (2601.HK) (CPIC) reported 3Q21 results of CNY 5.4 bn, declining CNY 3.4 bn (38.5%) linked quarter. Profitability was hurt by both the Life and P&amp;C units, which declined CNY 3.9 bn (52.4%) and CNY 156 mn (10.6%), respectively, to CNY 3.6 bn and CNY 1.3 bn; and*Troubles Continue In Life: During 3Q21, first year premium (FYP) agent per month declined by 41.0% linked quarter largely due to CPIC relying more on online channels to conduct new sales, and intimating agency distribution remained a challenge.The new CEO of CPIC Life mentioned that a new agency restructure will be implemented beginning January 1, 2022.

*Weak 3Q21 Results: China Pacific Insurance (2601.HK) (CPIC) reported 3Q21 results of CNY 5.4 bn, declining CNY 3.4 bn (38.5%) linked quarter. Profitability was hurt by both the Life and P&amp;C units, which declined CNY 3.9 bn (52.4%) and CNY 156 mn (10.6%), respectively, to CNY 3.6 bn and CNY 1.3 bn; and*Troubles Continue In Life: During 3Q21, first year premium (FYP) agent per month declined by 41.0% linked quarter largely due to CPIC relying more on online channels to conduct new sales, and intimating agency distribution remained a challenge.The new CEO of CPIC Life mentioned that a new agency restructure will be implemented beginning January 1, 2022.

China Pacific Insurance – Life Troubles

*Loan Defaults and USD Bond Payments Set To Continue:  China Evergrande Group (3333.HK) [Evergrande] magically made another 11th hour interest payment of USD 47.6 mn to bondholders on Friday, October 29, 2021 – escaping another default by the skin of its teeth, just as its 30-day grace period with bondholders was about to end. While the market is worried about a China Huarong Asset Management (2799.HK) default crippling the country’s USD credit market, they too should understand that any bond default by Evergande likely roils this market as well; and*Watch Your Bank Risk: According to Bloomberg, Evergrande has already been in contact with its lenders to request loan maturity extensions, including: China Minsheng Bank (1988.HK), China Zheshang Bank (2016.HK), Shanghai Pudong Development Bank (600000.CH), and Citic Trust (267.HK).  There would appear to be a limited amount of budging by its lenders. Its main bank, Shenjang Bank (2066.HK) is also on the verge of announcing NPLs in the 20% plus range.

*Loan Defaults and USD Bond Payments Set To Continue:  China Evergrande Group (3333.HK) [Evergrande] magically made another 11th hour interest payment of USD 47.6 mn to bondholders on Friday, October 29, 2021 – escaping another default by the skin of its teeth, just as its 30-day grace period with bondholders was about to end. While the market is worried about a China Huarong Asset Management (2799.HK) default crippling the country’s USD credit market, they too should understand that any bond default by Evergande likely roils this market as well; and*Watch Your Bank Risk: According to Bloomberg, Evergrande has already been in contact with its lenders to request loan maturity extensions, including: China Minsheng Bank (1988.HK), China Zheshang Bank (2016.HK), Shanghai Pudong Development Bank (600000.CH), and Citic Trust (267.HK).  There would appear to be a limited amount of budging by its lenders. Its main bank, Shenjang Bank (2066.HK) is also on the verge of announcing NPLs in the 20% plus range. 

China Evergrande Group – Dodging Another Bullet

Postal Savings Bank of China C / Equity Bottom-Up

*Blowout 3Q21 Results: Established in 2007, Postal Savings Bank of China (1658.HK) [PSB], mainland China’s youngest large commercial bank, reported 3Q21 bottom-line results of CNY 23.5 bn – increasing CNY 3.7 bn (18.6%) linked quarter. Much of the improvement at PSB is due to credit leverage, as loss provisions declined CNY 9.3 bn (54.3%); and*Credit Quality Continues Its Positive Turn, But Reserves More Than Adequate: Net new NPLs did increase CNY 7.8 bn or 61.0% annualized versus CNY 14.9 bn or 116.6% at 2Q21. Despite the increase in net new NPLs, it would appear that PSB’s reserves would remain excessive to the tune of CNY 100 bn or about a year of pre-tax profits – begging the question of why not reverse loss reserves?

*Blowout 3Q21 Results: Established in 2007, Postal Savings Bank of China (1658.HK) [PSB], mainland China’s youngest large commercial bank, reported 3Q21 bottom-line results of CNY 23.5 bn – increasing CNY 3.7 bn (18.6%) linked quarter. Much of the improvement at PSB is due to credit leverage, as loss provisions declined CNY 9.3 bn (54.3%); and*Credit Quality Continues Its Positive Turn, But Reserves More Than Adequate: Net new NPLs did increase CNY 7.8 bn or 61.0% annualized versus CNY 14.9 bn or 116.6% at 2Q21. Despite the increase in net new NPLs, it would appear that PSB’s reserves would remain excessive to the tune of CNY 100 bn or about a year of pre-tax profits – begging the question of why not reverse loss reserves?

Postal Savings Bank of China – Reserve Reversals Expected

*Weak Results in Investment and P&amp;C: Ping An Insurance (2318.HK) [Ping An] reported 3Q21 results of CNY 23.6 bn, declining CNY 7.1 bn (23.2%) linked quarter.  Much of the struggle this quarter remained Ping An’s investment portfolio – likely a long-term thematic, where the net investment yield plummet 30 bp to 4.4%. Excluding Ping An Bank (000001.CH) [PAB] whose results were completely managed, all other business units disappointed linked quarter; and*Concerns Increase At Bank And With Expansion Plans:  PAB reported 3Q21 results of CNY 11.7 bn. Don’t shoot off the streamers just yet, credit quality was abysmal and Ping An clearly pulled on its bank lever. By our analysis, we find that credit remains incredibly challenged as net new NPLs are now accelerating at Indian bank pace of CNY 12.4 bn or 159.8% annualized.  Assuming that the accelerated credit break in the PAB portfolio continues to remain at its current level, we find that PAB’s reserves remain CNY 19 bn light.

*Weak Results in Investment and P&amp;C: Ping An Insurance (2318.HK) [Ping An] reported 3Q21 results of CNY 23.6 bn, declining CNY 7.1 bn (23.2%) linked quarter.  Much of the struggle this quarter remained Ping An’s investment portfolio – likely a long-term thematic, where the net investment yield plummet 30 bp to 4.4%. Excluding Ping An Bank (000001.CH) [PAB] whose results were completely managed, all other business units disappointed linked quarter; and*Concerns Increase At Bank And With Expansion Plans:  PAB reported 3Q21 results of CNY 11.7 bn. Don’t shoot off the streamers just yet, credit quality was abysmal and Ping An clearly pulled on its bank lever. By our analysis, we find that credit remains incredibly challenged as net new NPLs are now accelerating at Indian bank pace of CNY 12.4 bn or 159.8% annualized.  Assuming that the accelerated credit break in the PAB portfolio continues to remain at its current level, we find that PAB’s reserves remain CNY 19 bn light.  

Ping An Insurance – Another Abysmal Result

*Strong Revenue, Controlled Costs: Hong Kong Exchanges &amp; Clearing (388.HK) [HKEx] reported a strong set of 3Q21 earnings at HKD 3.3 bn, improving HKD 481 mn (17.4%) linked quarter. Results were highlighted by HKEx’ marginally positive operating jaws, as recurring revenue improved HKD 550 mn (12.1%) while overall operating expenses declined nominally (under 0.1%) to HKD 1.5 mn over the period; and*A50, A New Avenue Of Growth: On October 18, 2021, HKEx successfully launched the MSCI China A50 Connect (HK A50), which is predicated on the new MSCI A50 Index. HKEx has a very broad range of liquid Hong Kong-China linked products, with the new A50 contract being linked to the northbound Stock Connect – on top of a better fee offering.

*Strong Revenue, Controlled Costs: Hong Kong Exchanges &amp; Clearing (388.HK) [HKEx] reported a strong set of 3Q21 earnings at HKD 3.3 bn, improving HKD 481 mn (17.4%) linked quarter. Results were highlighted by HKEx’ marginally positive operating jaws, as recurring revenue improved HKD 550 mn (12.1%) while overall operating expenses declined nominally (under 0.1%) to HKD 1.5 mn over the period; and*A50, A New Avenue Of Growth: On October 18, 2021, HKEx successfully launched the MSCI China A50 Connect (HK A50), which is predicated on the new MSCI A50 Index. HKEx has a very broad range of liquid Hong Kong-China linked products, with the new A50 contract being linked to the northbound Stock Connect – on top of a better fee offering. 

Hong Kong Exchanges & Clearing – Solid Result Even Prior To A50

China

iShares FTSE A50 China Index ETF is an exchanged-traded fund established in Hong Kong. The investment objective of the iShares FTSE A50 China Index ETF is to provide investment results that, before fees and expenses, closely correspond to the performance of A50 Index.

iShares FTSE/Xinhua A50 China (2823 HK)

China Pacific Insurance – Life Troubles

CHINA PACIFIC: CPIC reported a 3Q21 QOQ results decline of 38.5%, driven by both the Life and P&C units. The new CEO of CPIC Life mentioned that a...

Thomas J. Monaco

China Evergrande Group – Dodging Another Bullet

EVERGRANDE: Evergrande magically made another 11th hour interest payment of USD 47.6 mn to bondholders on October 29th – escaping default....

Thomas J. Monaco

Postal Savings Bank of China – Reserve Reversals Expected

POSTAL SAVINGS BANK: PSB's QOQ 3Q21 increased 18.6%, due largely to credit leverage and net interest income improvement. PSB’s reserves appear...

Thomas J. Monaco

Ping An Insurance – Another Abysmal Result

PING AN: Ping An reported a QOQ 3Q21 results decline of 23.2%, attributed to its investment portfolio. Excluding PAB, whose results were managed,...

Thomas J. Monaco

Hong Kong Exchanges & Clearing – Solid Result Even Prior To A50

HKEX: HKEx reported a strong QOQ 3Q21 earnings growth of 17.4%, and highlighted by marginally positive operating jaws, as recurring revenue...

Thomas J. Monaco