Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Market dynamics remain healthy and we are continuing to see signs that suggest global equities are entering a new broad-based bull market.</li>
<li>Led by strength from the US, the MSCI ACWI index (ACWI-US) recently broke out to new highs above the key $105.40 resistance level, a bullish sign for global equities.</li>
<li>Global sovereign yields have moved lower in recent weeks. We expect rates to find support near current levels, creating an opportunity to add to value Sectors.</li>
</ul>


Market dynamics remain healthy and we are continuing to see signs that suggest global equities are entering a new broad-based bull market.
Led by strength from the US, the MSCI ACWI index (ACWI-US) recently broke out to new highs above the key $105.40 resistance level, a bullish sign for global equities.
Global sovereign yields have moved lower in recent weeks. We expect rates to find support near current levels, creating an opportunity to add to value Sectors.


MSCI ACWI Breaking To New Highs; Buying Financials, Consumer Discretionary, Industrials, Materials

The broad global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, and EAFE) have pulled back to test key intermediate-term supports, and we expect to see buyers step in near current levels. Market dynamics remain largely healthy and our outlook remains neutral yet constructive overall. We see this pullback as a buying opportunity, however breakdowns would be problematic and would suggest additional downside or consolidation is likely.

The broad global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, and EAFE) have pulled back to test key intermediate-term supports, and we expect to see buyers step in near current levels. Market dynamics remain largely healthy and our outlook remains neutral yet constructive overall. We see this pullback as a buying opportunity, however breakdowns would be problematic and would suggest additional downside or consolidation is likely.

MSCI ACWI, ACWI Ex-US, EAFE Testing Key Supports; Buy Ideas in Financials, Materials, Industrials

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ishares-msci-acwi-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24402:1" rel="noopener">iShares MSCI ACWI ETF (ACWI US)</a> shows an eerily similar macro setup to where the Euro banks were at the 100 handle with a bearish rising wedge due to break support amid a pressure packed MACD pattern.This is a textbook/high conviction set up.Euro banks are currently down over 10% and the correction is not complete.MACD bear triangulation with divergence is THE most powerful set up in our trade plans. US breadth is breaking some key support with the bulk of US sectors topping in May and drawing more sectors into the downturn. Weaker markets in Asia and Europe registered sell signals some time ago.An ACWI support break runs the risk of a sharp correction into seasonally weak August as stronger pockets buckle. NDX just broke trendline support!

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF (ACWI US) shows an eerily similar macro setup to where the Euro banks were at the 100 handle with a bearish rising wedge due to break support amid a pressure packed MACD pattern.This is a textbook/high conviction set up.Euro banks are currently down over 10% and the correction is not complete.MACD bear triangulation with divergence is THE most powerful set up in our trade plans. US breadth is breaking some key support with the bulk of US sectors topping in May and drawing more sectors into the downturn. Weaker markets in Asia and Europe registered sell signals some time ago.An ACWI support break runs the risk of a sharp correction into seasonally weak August as stronger pockets buckle. NDX just broke trendline support!

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Equity Bottom-Up

From a positioning perspective, our analysis shows that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-motor-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:73:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Motor (7203 JP)</a> is one of the largest underweights in Asia and highly under-owned versus its own historical levels.  Just 12.7% of Global managers hold a position in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-motor-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:73:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Motor (7203 JP)</a> , down from a high of 31% in 2013.Despite these low investment levels, there are signs that sentiment is starting to turn across a number of our holdings metrics;  average weights have moved off the lows, the percentage of funds invested has increased and the net underweight is at it's lowest level in a decade.For Global managers, to hold nothing in Toyota aligns you with the majority of active peers and risks underperformance against the benchmark should the investment case for Toyota improve, as highlighted in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/mio-kato" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:713" rel="noopener">Mio Kato's</a> bullish thesis <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/toyota-real-strength-shining-through" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:48014" rel="noopener">Toyota – Real Strength Shining Through</a> .  To hold an overweight, although being out-of-consensus, has the potential to drive outperformance against both active and passive peers.  Furthermore, should sentiment turn, the flow effect of Global funds buying back in to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-motor-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:73:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Motor (7203 JP)</a> will be supportive.Analysis taken from our Global active fund research, covering 386 managers with combined AUM of $960bn

From a positioning perspective, our analysis shows that Toyota Motor (7203 JP) is one of the largest underweights in Asia and highly under-owned versus its own historical levels.  Just 12.7% of Global managers hold a position in Toyota Motor (7203 JP) , down from a high of 31% in 2013.Despite these low investment levels, there are signs that sentiment is starting to turn across a number of our holdings metrics;  average weights have moved off the lows, the percentage of funds invested has increased and the net underweight is at it's lowest level in a decade.For Global managers, to hold nothing in Toyota aligns you with the majority of active peers and risks underperformance against the benchmark should the investment case for Toyota improve, as highlighted in Mio Kato's bullish thesis Toyota – Real Strength Shining Through .  To hold an overweight, although being out-of-consensus, has the potential to drive outperformance against both active and passive peers.  Furthermore, should sentiment turn, the flow effect of Global funds buying back in to Toyota Motor (7203 JP) will be supportive.Analysis taken from our Global active fund research, covering 386 managers with combined AUM of $960bn

Toyota Motor (7203):  Chronically Underinvested:  Turnaround Potential

United States

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA. The ETF tracks the performance of the MSCI All Country World Index and holds over 1200 equities in developed and emerging markets. The ETF weights its holdings using a representative sampling indexing strategy, generally investing at least 90% of its assets in the underlying index.

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF (ACWI US)

MSCI ACWI Breaking To New Highs; Buying Financials, Consumer Discretionary, Industrials, Materials

Global sovereign yields have moved lower in recent weeks. We expect rates to find support near current levels, and recommend adding exposure to...

Vermilion Research

MSCI ACWI, ACWI Ex-US, EAFE Testing Key Supports; Buy Ideas in Financials, Materials, Industrials

The MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), and EAFE (EFA-US) are testing important intermediate-term support levels of $99, $54, and $76.50...

Vermilion Research

MSCI All World Macro Sell Set Up

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF (ACWI US) shows an eerily similar macro setup to where the Euro banks were at the 100 handle with a bearish rising wedge due...

Thomas Schroeder

Toyota Motor (7203): Chronically Underinvested: Turnaround Potential

Toyota Motor (7203 JP) is one of the largest underweights in Asia and highly under-owned versus its own historical levels. Among Global active...

Steven Holden