Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI Emerging Markets / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>In our prior EM Strategy (October 2) we discussed that as long as EEM-US is above our important line-in-the-sand at $37, we were buyers on the pullback.</li>
<li>This support level held and EEM-US now displays a bullish 3-month downtrend reversal as the DXY appears to be breaking below $105.70, all bullish signals signaling additional upside-- buy.</li>
<li>We are bullish as long as $36.50-$37 support holds on EEM-US. Our first target is $42, which is 1.5+ year resistance. Remain overweight India, and we're upgrading Poland/Greece to overweight</li>
</ul>


In our prior EM Strategy (October 2) we discussed that as long as EEM-US is above our important line-in-the-sand at $37, we were buyers on the pullback.
This support level held and EEM-US now displays a bullish 3-month downtrend reversal as the DXY appears to be breaking below $105.70, all bullish signals signaling additional upside-- buy.
We are bullish as long as $36.50-$37 support holds on EEM-US. Our first target is $42, which is 1.5+ year resistance. Remain overweight India, and we're upgrading Poland/Greece to overweight


MSCI EM Index Reversing 3-Month Downtrend -- Buy. Remain Overweight India, Upgrading Poland & Greece

Head of Research, Steno Research

Emil Moller

Head of Research

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Cross Asset Strategy

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<ul>
<li>Emerging market central banks demonstrated their foresight in 2021, acting ahead of the curve.</li>
<li>However, there is a looming concern that the resurgence in energy prices might pose a challenge for them, much like it did in 2022.</li>
</ul>
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<ul>
<li>In our analysis last week, we delved into the situation in Turkey and arrived at the following conclusion: The capable technocratic approach is more likely to succeed than the resurgence of economic populism.</li>
</ul>





Emerging market central banks demonstrated their foresight in 2021, acting ahead of the curve.
However, there is a looming concern that the resurgence in energy prices might pose a challenge for them, much like it did in 2022.






In our analysis last week, we delved into the situation in Turkey and arrived at the following conclusion: The capable technocratic approach is more likely to succeed than the resurgence of economic populism.


EM by EM #20 Another Energy Squeeze in the Cards?

Product Marketing Manager, Criat

Raghav Chandra Mathur

Product Marketing Manager

Next-Generation Credit Analytics Provider

Criat

Criat specializes in new-generation data-driven credit analytics. Leveraging our industry-leading DeepCredit analytical technologies, we produce daily-updated forward-looking credit assessment and valuation to help financial institutions stay ahead of risks. Coupled with use-case-driven applications, we extract insights, answer questions and enable smarter credit decisions.

<ul><li>Since its establishment in 2009, the BRICS consortium, comprising Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, has evolved into a formidable alliance of emerging economies.</li><li>This collective, wielding a considerable share of the global economic landscape, commands about 26.6% of the world's nominal GDP and 32.5% of its GDP based on purchasing power parity (PPP). S</li><li>panning 41.5% of the world's population and covering 26.7% of its land area, these nations convene annually to deliberate on an array of subjects including trade dynamics, investment prospects, sustainable development, security imperatives, and the principles of multilateralism.</li></ul>

Since its establishment in 2009, the BRICS consortium, comprising Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, has evolved into a formidable alliance of emerging economies.This collective, wielding a considerable share of the global economic landscape, commands about 26.6% of the world's nominal GDP and 32.5% of its GDP based on purchasing power parity (PPP). Spanning 41.5% of the world's population and covering 26.7% of its land area, these nations convene annually to deliberate on an array of subjects including trade dynamics, investment prospects, sustainable development, security imperatives, and the principles of multilateralism.

Decoding Credit Cycles: BRICS and New Entrants in Focus

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Main takeaways: Brazilian Equities are on offer and provide solid value for long-only. If commodities are in for a rebound Brazil may be a decent option to seek exposure.</li><li>Plenty of recessionary clouds near mid-term and while fixed income remain the game in town, yields coming down may provide a narrow opportunity for equities. Regular EM readers here would know that we have been bullish on Brazilian Sovereigns since March.</li><li>The fundamental drivers behind this thesis have roughly been two folded: The market being over-pessimistic of the re-ascension of Lula to the office and over-concerned with the inflationary resilience of the Brazilian Economy.</li></ul>

Main takeaways: Brazilian Equities are on offer and provide solid value for long-only. If commodities are in for a rebound Brazil may be a decent option to seek exposure.Plenty of recessionary clouds near mid-term and while fixed income remain the game in town, yields coming down may provide a narrow opportunity for equities. Regular EM readers here would know that we have been bullish on Brazilian Sovereigns since March.The fundamental drivers behind this thesis have roughly been two folded: The market being over-pessimistic of the re-ascension of Lula to the office and over-concerned with the inflationary resilience of the Brazilian Economy.

EM by EM #13 – A sweetspot for Brazilian Equities?

Macroeconomic and Investing, The Macro Compass

Alfonso Peccatiello (Alf)

Macroeconomic and Investing

The Macro Compass

Actionable investment ideas and unique global macro insights. From the desk of a former Head of $20 bn Investment Portfolio straight to your inbox.

Actionable Investment Ideas

<ul><li>Investing is all about probabilities: all you need to do is assess the chances markets are assigning to different scenarios today and anticipate how this probability distribution will move over time.</li><li>In other words, you don’t need to be necessarily right on what happens next but just be able to grasp how market consensus will move from here.</li><li>Ignoring this simple principle has been a very expensive exercise for European fixed income investors over the last few weeks: the-ECB-will-never-really-hike mantra is melting under the eyes of bond investors married to a dovish narrative which has been successful for a decade but offers a very bad risk-reward today.</li></ul>

Investing is all about probabilities: all you need to do is assess the chances markets are assigning to different scenarios today and anticipate how this probability distribution will move over time.In other words, you don’t need to be necessarily right on what happens next but just be able to grasp how market consensus will move from here.Ignoring this simple principle has been a very expensive exercise for European fixed income investors over the last few weeks: the-ECB-will-never-really-hike mantra is melting under the eyes of bond investors married to a dovish narrative which has been successful for a decade but offers a very bad risk-reward today.

The Biggest Macro Risk You Might Be Ignoring

Brazil

iShares MSCI Brazil Capped ETF is an exchange-traded fund in the USA. The ETF's objective is to provide investment results that correspond to the performance of the MSCI Brazil 25/50 Index.

iShares MSCI Brazil Capped ETF (EWZ US)

MSCI EM Index Reversing 3-Month Downtrend -- Buy. Remain Overweight India, Upgrading Poland & Greece

In our prior EM Strategy (10/2/23) we discussed that, if $EEM is above $37, we were buyers on the pullback. Support held and now EEM displays a...

Vermilion Research

EM by EM #20 Another Energy Squeeze in the Cards?

Emerging market central banks demonstrated their foresight in 2021, acting ahead of the curve. However, there is a looming concern that the...

Steno Research

Decoding Credit Cycles: BRICS and New Entrants in Focus

Since its establishment in 2009, the BRICS consortium, comprising Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, has evolved into a formidable...

Criat

EM by EM #13 – A sweetspot for Brazilian Equities?

Main takeaways:Brazilian Equities are on offer and provide solid value for long-only. If commodities are in for a rebound Brazil may be a decent...

Steno Research

The Biggest Macro Risk You Might Be Ignoring

Investing is all about probabilities: all you need to do is assess the chances markets are assigning to different scenarios today and anticipate...

Alfonso Peccatiello (Alf)