Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/stock-exchange-of-thailand-set-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31493:1" rel="noopener">Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX)</a> rebalance was implemented at the close on Friday and there were a bunch of review cutoffs on the same day.</li>
<li>Passive Hang Seng trackers need to sell <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan-dianping" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan (3690 HK)</a> at the close on 4 January following <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a> in-specie distribution.</li>
<li>We take a look at flows to Asian focused ETFs over the course of 2022. A lot of winners in terms of AUM, but a few losers too.</li>
</ul>


The Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX) rebalance was implemented at the close on Friday and there were a bunch of review cutoffs on the same day.
Passive Hang Seng trackers need to sell Meituan (3690 HK) at the close on 4 January following Tencent (700 HK) in-specie distribution.
We take a look at flows to Asian focused ETFs over the course of 2022. A lot of winners in terms of AUM, but a few losers too.


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: Meituan, S&P/ASX All Tech, 2022 ETF Flows

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

<div>
<p>Not all of the stocks in the benchmark MSCI Asia Ex-Japan index are well liked by active fund managers in the region.  In fact, there a large number of stocks that are avoided by the majority of funds.  In this analysis, we screen for these unloved stocks.</p>
<p>We filter our aggregated stock holdings data across the Asia Ex-Japan region as follows:</p>
</div><div><ol>
<li>Average Active Fund Weight &lt; I Shares MSCI Asia Ex-Japan<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ishares-msci-cntry-asa-jpn-idx-fnd-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:416:1" rel="noopener"></a> ETF Weight (i.e net underweight)</li>
<li>Percentage of Funds Invested &lt; 2% (i.e less than 2% of funds hold each stock).</li>
</ol></div><div>
<p>The list is headed by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nio-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27399:1" rel="noopener">NIO Inc (NIO US)</a> , a stock owned by just 1% of active Asia Ex-Japan funds at a net underweight of -0.54%.  In total, 577 out of the 1086 stocks in the benchmark meet this criteria.</p>
<p>Does it pay to avoid unloved stocks?  We have backtested a portfolio of Asia Ex-Japan Unloved stocks based on the screening criteria above, rebalanced monthly going back to 2011 and capped at 50 stocks. The performance suggests that Unloved stocks are best avoided, with consistent underperformance vs the I-Shares Asia Ex-Japan ETF since 2011. </p>
<p><em>The analysis uses our Asia Ex-Japan fund data, comprising 97 active long-only Asia Ex-Japan funds with a combined AUM of $70bn.</em></p>
</div>


Not all of the stocks in the benchmark MSCI Asia Ex-Japan index are well liked by active fund managers in the region.  In fact, there a large number of stocks that are avoided by the majority of funds.  In this analysis, we screen for these unloved stocks.
We filter our aggregated stock holdings data across the Asia Ex-Japan region as follows:

Average Active Fund Weight &lt; I Shares MSCI Asia Ex-Japan ETF Weight (i.e net underweight)
Percentage of Funds Invested &lt; 2% (i.e less than 2% of funds hold each stock).

The list is headed by NIO Inc (NIO US) , a stock owned by just 1% of active Asia Ex-Japan funds at a net underweight of -0.54%.  In total, 577 out of the 1086 stocks in the benchmark meet this criteria.
Does it pay to avoid unloved stocks?  We have backtested a portfolio of Asia Ex-Japan Unloved stocks based on the screening criteria above, rebalanced monthly going back to 2011 and capped at 50 stocks. The performance suggests that Unloved stocks are best avoided, with consistent underperformance vs the I-Shares Asia Ex-Japan ETF since 2011. 
The analysis uses our Asia Ex-Japan fund data, comprising 97 active long-only Asia Ex-Japan funds with a combined AUM of $70bn.


Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Allocations in Asian Financials stocks have fallen to all-time lows in Asia Ex-Japan active portfolios this year.</li>
<li>Fund managers move to underweight following $3bn in net outflows.</li>
<li>Managers exit ASEAN banks, weights drop in China banks. </li>
<li>On a stock level, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/icici-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:547:1" rel="noopener">ICICI Bank Ltd (ICICIBC IN)</a> ,  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-rakyat-indonesia-persero" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:484:1" rel="noopener">Bank Rakyat Indonesia Persero (BBRI IJ)</a> (-7.2%) and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indusind-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1558:1" rel="noopener">Indusind Bank (IIB IN)</a> are the hardest hit.</li>
</ul>


Allocations in Asian Financials stocks have fallen to all-time lows in Asia Ex-Japan active portfolios this year.
Fund managers move to underweight following $3bn in net outflows.
Managers exit ASEAN banks, weights drop in China banks. 
On a stock level, ICICI Bank Ltd (ICICIBC IN) ,  Bank Rakyat Indonesia Persero (BBRI IJ) (-7.2%) and Indusind Bank (IIB IN) are the hardest hit.


Quantitative Analysis

<p>In light of the Temasek stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keppel-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12:1" rel="noopener">Keppel Corp Ltd (KEP SP)</a> we thought it useful to provide an update on fund positioning among Global and Asia Ex-Japan fund managers.  It's fair to say, the exodus has been brutal.</p>
<p>Our fund universes:</p>
<p>Global:  430 Global Equity Long Only Funds - $760bn in combined assets</p>
<p>Asia Ex-Japan:  105 Asia Ex-Japan Long Only Funds = $75bn in combined assets</p>

In light of the Temasek stake in Keppel Corp Ltd (KEP SP) we thought it useful to provide an update on fund positioning among Global and Asia Ex-Japan fund managers.  It's fair to say, the exodus has been brutal.
Our fund universes:
Global:  430 Global Equity Long Only Funds - $760bn in combined assets
Asia Ex-Japan:  105 Asia Ex-Japan Long Only Funds = $75bn in combined assets

Keppel Corp: Underweight and Unloved - Fund Positioning Analysis

<p>In this report, we analyse Asia Ex-Japan fund positioning across the key Asian industry groups.  The analysis measures current sentiment across all Asian industry groups by calculating today's positioning levels in relation to historical levels.  We then overlay short term fund activity data in order to detect reversals or confirmations of longer-term trends.</p><p>For this analysis, we analyse the holdings of 102 actively managed mutual funds benchmarked to the MSCI Asia Ex-Japan Index. The current fund sample covers a combined AUM of $70bn.</p>

In this report, we analyse Asia Ex-Japan fund positioning across the key Asian industry groups.  The analysis measures current sentiment across all Asian industry groups by calculating today's positioning levels in relation to historical levels.  We then overlay short term fund activity data in order to detect reversals or confirmations of longer-term trends.For this analysis, we analyse the holdings of 102 actively managed mutual funds benchmarked to the MSCI Asia Ex-Japan Index. The current fund sample covers a combined AUM of $70bn.

Focus Industries for Asia Ex-Japan Fund Managers

United States

iShares MSCI All Country Asia ex-Japan ETF is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA. The ETF seeks investment results that correspond to the  price and yield performance of the MSCI All Country Asia ex-Japan Index. The MSCI All Country Asia ex-Japan Index offers exposure to stocks from Asian countries excluding Japan.

iShares MSCI All Country Asia ex-Japan ETF (AAXJ US)

iShares MSCI All Country Asia ex-Japan ETF

iShares MSCI All Country Asia ex-Japan ETF (AAXJ US)

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: Meituan, S&P/ASX All Tech, 2022 ETF Flows

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A changes). We also highlight large...

Brian Freitas

Asia's Unloved Stocks

Many stocks in the benchmark MSCI Asia Ex-Japan index are largely avoided by active fund managers. In this analysis, we discover the stocks that...

Steven Holden

Asia Ex-Japan Financials: Long Drop

Allocations in Financial stocks drop to all-time lows in Asia Ex-Japan active funds. Financials now key underweight holding, led by selling in the...

Steven Holden

Keppel Corp: Underweight and Unloved - Fund Positioning Analysis

In light of the Temasek stake in Keppel Corp Ltd (KEP SP) we thought it useful to provide an update on fund positioning among Global and Asia...

Steven Holden

Focus Industries for Asia Ex-Japan Fund Managers

In this report, we analyse Asia Ex-Japan fund positioning across the key Asian industry groups. The analysis measures current sentiment across all...

Steven Holden