Global Equities, Multi-Asset PM, Dantes Outlook

Damanick Dantes, CMT

Global Equities, Multi-Asset PM

Dantes Outlook

We invest over a full market cycle, using multi-asset portfolios tailored to each global client, from individuals to family offices.

Built to Endure

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>
Cautious entry: Indonesian stocks are stabilizing. We may consider a small absolute long on a 6-12-month horizon, either on the country level or with a basket of three stocks.</li>
<li>
Absolute for now: Historically, past downside extremes in Indonesian stocks preceded positive absolute returns 6-12-months forward, but relative performance remained weak over the same time horizon.</li>
<li>
Relative later: Our framework does not support an overweight to Indonesia vs. EM or Asia Pacific until relative trend signals improve. If you're already underweight, trim it.</li>
</ul>



Cautious entry: Indonesian stocks are stabilizing. We may consider a small absolute long on a 6-12-month horizon, either on the country level or with a basket of three stocks.

Absolute for now: Historically, past downside extremes in Indonesian stocks preceded positive absolute returns 6-12-months forward, but relative performance remained weak over the same time horizon.

Relative later: Our framework does not support an overweight to Indonesia vs. EM or Asia Pacific until relative trend signals improve. If you're already underweight, trim it.


Indonesia Stabilizes: Three Stocks with Relative Upside

<ul>
<li>Global equities and commodities contributed to gains throughout our portfolio suite, driven by positive selection effects.</li>
<li>Aggressive strategies continue to outperform their respective benchmarks YTD, especially as tech and crypto stabilize.</li>
<li>Positioning carries over into September, maintaining an underweight to bonds and overweights to global stocks and commodities.</li>
</ul>


Global equities and commodities contributed to gains throughout our portfolio suite, driven by positive selection effects.
Aggressive strategies continue to outperform their respective benchmarks YTD, especially as tech and crypto stabilize.
Positioning carries over into September, maintaining an underweight to bonds and overweights to global stocks and commodities.


Portfolio Update: Selective in Global Stocks, Commodities, Underweight Bonds

Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>We first review at  Q1 performance in the major markets we follow</li>
<li>Then our outlook for Q2 with the Iran War outcome the major wild card</li>
<li>Some short-term vs  long term  implications of the ongoing Iran war </li>
</ul>


We first review at  Q1 performance in the major markets we follow
Then our outlook for Q2 with the Iran War outcome the major wild card
Some short-term vs  long term  implications of the ongoing Iran war 


Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We are not fighting the trend with all the MSCI global indexes (MSCI ACWI, EAFE, ACWI ex-US, and EM) hitting multi-year highs, but we are monitoring a few potential concerns</li>
<li>Concerns: notably global Consumer Staples (KXI-US) near 5.5-month RS highs, crude oil prices bottoming, and gasoline prices (UGA) breaking out from a 3.5+ year downtrend</li>
<li>Actionable Themes: Energy, Materials, Transports, Real Estate, Telecom, and Utilities. Remain Overweight Emerging Markets, Taiwan, Korea, Spain, Japan, and Canada</li>
</ul>


We are not fighting the trend with all the MSCI global indexes (MSCI ACWI, EAFE, ACWI ex-US, and EM) hitting multi-year highs, but we are monitoring a few potential concerns
Concerns: notably global Consumer Staples (KXI-US) near 5.5-month RS highs, crude oil prices bottoming, and gasoline prices (UGA) breaking out from a 3.5+ year downtrend
Actionable Themes: Energy, Materials, Transports, Real Estate, Telecom, and Utilities. Remain Overweight Emerging Markets, Taiwan, Korea, Spain, Japan, and Canada


Opportunity in Global Cyclical Value and Defensives: Energy, Materials, Real Estate, Telecom, Utes

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

<ul>
<li>Active EM funds retain a strong Asia bias but run a persistent regional underweight, while consensus overweights remain in the Americas and EMEA positioning continues to improve.</li>
<li>2025 rotation was defined by a decisive shift into South Korea, heavy reductions in India, and rising participation across MENA from historically low ownership levels.</li>
<li>Taiwan is now the largest structural underweight within the Big Four, while LATAM and select European EM markets attract consistent overweights and increasing fund participation.</li>
</ul>


Active EM funds retain a strong Asia bias but run a persistent regional underweight, while consensus overweights remain in the Americas and EMEA positioning continues to improve.
2025 rotation was defined by a decisive shift into South Korea, heavy reductions in India, and rising participation across MENA from historically low ownership levels.
Taiwan is now the largest structural underweight within the Big Four, while LATAM and select European EM markets attract consistent overweights and increasing fund participation.


Active EM Regions & Countries: The Setup After 2025’s Rotation

United States

iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA. The ETF tracks the performance of the MSCI TR Emerging Markets Index. The ETF holds emerging market stocks that can predominantly be classified as large and mid-cap. It weights the holdings using a market capitalization methodology and rebalances quarterly.

iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM US)

Indonesia Stabilizes: Three Stocks with Relative Upside

Indonesian equities are stabilizing on an absolute and relative basis. We're considering small positions and selected three relative strength stocks.

Damanick Dantes, CMT

Portfolio Update: Selective in Global Stocks, Commodities, Underweight Bonds

Breakdown of our global multi-asset portfolios with performance and positioning. We're overweight stocks and commodities and underweight bonds,...

Damanick Dantes, CMT

Q2 Outlook – A Tale of Two Regimes

Our outlook for Q2 2026. Separating the short-term noise from our longer-term investment themes. In Part 1 we look at hard assets while we look at...

Rikki Malik

Opportunity in Global Cyclical Value and Defensives: Energy, Materials, Real Estate, Telecom, Utes

Opportunity in Global Cyclical Value and Defensives; Actionable Themes: Energy, Materials, Transports, Real Estate, Telecom, and Utilities....

Vermilion Research

Active EM Regions & Countries: The Setup After 2025’s Rotation

Active EM funds enter 2026 with a reshaped country map after 2025 rotation: Korea moves to overweight, India reduces but stabilises, MENA...

Steven Holden