Economist

Richard Iley

Macroeconomics

<div class="content-highlight">CPI inflation continued to normalise in August, led by a continued acceleration in vegetable inflation but also further upticks in housing, clothing and footwear and core services inflation. Only continued unprecedented but ultimately unsustainable deflation in pulses is keeping inflation below 4% y/y. With base effects set to keep pushing inflation up and upside risks from the 7th Pay Commission hovering in the wings, rate-cut expectations should fade further. 5% inflation, as we have…</div>

CPI inflation continued to normalise in August, led by a continued acceleration in vegetable inflation but also further upticks in housing, clothing and footwear and core services inflation. Only continued unprecedented but ultimately unsustainable deflation in pulses is keeping inflation below 4% y/y. With base effects set to keep pushing inflation up and upside risks from the 7th Pay Commission hovering in the wings, rate-cut expectations should fade further. 5% inflation, as we have…

Some people tend to view 'the glass' as half full; others as half empty. A further alternative is that the  glass is simply twice as large as it needs to be! Ultimately, analysis and opinion is often in the 'eye of the beholder'.India's latest GDP report is a perfect case in point with pessimistic, optimistic and realistic interpretations all plausible and legitimate. This short note will try to encompass all three view points and, in the process, hopefully shed more light on the Indian…

Some people tend to view 'the glass' as half full; others as half empty. A further alternative is that the  glass is simply twice as large as it needs to be! Ultimately, analysis and opinion is often in the 'eye of the beholder'.India's latest GDP report is a perfect case in point with pessimistic, optimistic and realistic interpretations all plausible and legitimate. This short note will try to encompass all three view points and, in the process, hopefully shed more light on the Indian…

Asia focused research insights & advisory, Asia Advisors

Vinay Patel

Asia focused research insights & advisory

Asia Advisors

Asia Advisors is an independent financial advisory and research firm working closely with corporates and institutions to provide consulting solutions & research insights. We provide advisory services including capital solutions, business strategy and investment insights.
Firm is headed by Vinay Patel who has close to two decades of experience in research and business development at large, international investment banks such as HSBC and ICICI Securities. Led research efforts in areas of Macroeconomics, Asset Allocation & Investment Strategy for close to a decade in global & domestic research teams. As a business head in Singapore, advised top global investment management firms & Portfolio managers in Asia for India related investments.
Vinay was recently joined by Swapnil Manish, an investment banker and ex-ecommerce entrepreneur with more than 12 years of experience. Swapnil was the TMT banker at BNP Paribas and was part of several large M&A and ECM transactions (Bharti-Zain, Bharti Infratel IPO, Schneider-Zicom among several others). He's also had a stint as an ecommerce entrepreneur having launched & led Mumbai's first online grocery player.

Inflation rate as measured by CPI jumped to 2.4% y-o-y for the month of July (from 1.5% y-o-y in June) against market expectation of 1.9%. July was also the first month of GST implementation and at the first sight inflation index for several goods &amp; services has jumped up (m-o-m) post-GST while corresponding fall in prices of products now attracting lower taxes has not taken place. Even as a spike in prices of select vegetables and also the housing price index played a major role in the rise in…

Inflation rate as measured by CPI jumped to 2.4% y-o-y for the month of July (from 1.5% y-o-y in June) against market expectation of 1.9%. July was also the first month of GST implementation and at the first sight inflation index for several goods &amp; services has jumped up (m-o-m) post-GST while corresponding fall in prices of products now attracting lower taxes has not taken place. Even as a spike in prices of select vegetables and also the housing price index played a major role in the rise in…

Is GST Turning Inflationary for India: An Analysis of the July CPI Spike?

The Doklam standoff between India and China continues to attract daily press coverage although the rhetoric of escalation &amp; war has been reduced significantly in past few days. We take a game theory approach to evaluating this standoff that has been debated from strategic, political and economic angles. While a few commentators have published on game theory aspects of the dispute but approach has been fairly basic using Prisoners dilemma game to evaluate the strategic options available to both…

The Doklam standoff between India and China continues to attract daily press coverage although the rhetoric of escalation &amp; war has been reduced significantly in past few days. We take a game theory approach to evaluating this standoff that has been debated from strategic, political and economic angles. While a few commentators have published on game theory aspects of the dispute but approach has been fairly basic using Prisoners dilemma game to evaluate the strategic options available to both…

A Game Theory Approach to India-China Standoff at Doklam

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI Emerging Markets / Technical Analysis

We run through our biggest gainers and losers in the first half of 2017 month by month for closed positions and where we stand with our current holdings/open positions.We are currently up nearly 6% at the end of June, not as good as we did last year but in good shape to build on gains for the second half of 2017 as long as we get the summer equity peak cycle correct.To view click on this link: <a href="https://www.screencast.com/t/nram1N8Xhlbm" target="_blank">https://www.screencast.com/t/nram1N8Xhlbm</a> 8:04 min.<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/028/956/original/CPG%20INSERT.png?1498926071" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="28956"></figure><div class="content-caption">Portfolio return webcast 1H 2017</div>Closed positions to…

We run through our biggest gainers and losers in the first half of 2017 month by month for closed positions and where we stand with our current holdings/open positions.We are currently up nearly 6% at the end of June, not as good as we did last year but in good shape to build on gains for the second half of 2017 as long as we get the summer equity peak cycle correct.To view click on this link: https://www.screencast.com/t/nram1N8Xhlbm 8:04 min.Portfolio return webcast 1H 2017Closed positions to…

India

iShares MSCI India ETF is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA. The ETF seeks investment results that correspond generally to the price and yield performance, before fees and expenses, of the MSCI India Index.

iShares MSCI India ETF (INDA US)

India: Return To Normalcy

CPI inflation continued to normalise in August, led by a continued acceleration in vegetable inflation but also further upticks in housing,...

Richard Iley

India: The Eye of the Beholder

Some people tend to view 'the glass' as half full; others as half empty. A further alternative is that the glass is simply twice as large as it...

Richard Iley

Is GST Turning Inflationary for India: An Analysis of the July CPI Spike?

Inflation rate as measured by CPI jumped to 2.4% y-o-y for the month of July (from 1.5% y-o-y in June) against market expectation of 1.9%. July was...

Asia Advisors

A Game Theory Approach to India-China Standoff at Doklam

The Doklam standoff between India and China continues to attract daily press coverage although the rhetoric of escalation & war has been...

Asia Advisors

10% 1H 2017 Portfolio Gain

We run through our biggest gainers and losers in the first half of 2017 month by month for closed positions and where we stand with our current...

Thomas Schroeder