Asia focused research insights & advisory, Asia Advisors

Vinay Patel

Asia focused research insights & advisory

Asia Advisors

Asia Advisors is an independent financial advisory and research firm working closely with corporates and institutions to provide consulting solutions & research insights. We provide advisory services including capital solutions, business strategy and investment insights.
Firm is headed by Vinay Patel who has close to two decades of experience in research and business development at large, international investment banks such as HSBC and ICICI Securities. Led research efforts in areas of Macroeconomics, Asset Allocation & Investment Strategy for close to a decade in global & domestic research teams. As a business head in Singapore, advised top global investment management firms & Portfolio managers in Asia for India related investments.
Vinay was recently joined by Swapnil Manish, an investment banker and ex-ecommerce entrepreneur with more than 12 years of experience. Swapnil was the TMT banker at BNP Paribas and was part of several large M&A and ECM transactions (Bharti-Zain, Bharti Infratel IPO, Schneider-Zicom among several others). He's also had a stint as an ecommerce entrepreneur having launched & led Mumbai's first online grocery player.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>The commercial office property market in India is showing good signs of revival since last year</li><li>Demand indicators as seen through the leasing activity, rental movement and the fall in vacancy rates points to positive trends for the sector that has lagged its residential counterpart since 2012</li><li>The offers promising yields of 9-10% across the top cities along with chances of capital appreciation</li><li>High Yield has attracted many global PE &amp; pension funds and Blackstone today has emerged as the largest owner of grade-A office space in India with a portfolio of over 30msf (million square feet)</li><li>Impending creation and listing of REITs in India will be another positive trigger for the sector as developers and asset owners unlock capital from tenanted properties  </li></ul>

The commercial office property market in India is showing good signs of revival since last yearDemand indicators as seen through the leasing activity, rental movement and the fall in vacancy rates points to positive trends for the sector that has lagged its residential counterpart since 2012The offers promising yields of 9-10% across the top cities along with chances of capital appreciationHigh Yield has attracted many global PE &amp; pension funds and Blackstone today has emerged as the largest owner of grade-A office space in India with a portfolio of over 30msf (million square feet)Impending creation and listing of REITs in India will be another positive trigger for the sector as developers and asset owners unlock capital from tenanted properties  

Looking for Yield? India Office Property Offers 10%; Sector on an Uptick; REIT Listings Next Trigger

Technical Analysis / Chartered Market Technician, The Markets Academy

David Coloretti, CMT

Technical Analysis / Chartered Market Technician

The Markets Academy

TMA implements 2 strategies. 1) Tactical ... Trend Sustainability Score (TSS) allows TMA to identify exhaustion / reversal points in interim trends by utilising our proprietary analysis of ST momentum indicators. 2) Medium Term ... our 3 Pillars approach to technical analysis allows TMA to determine high probability medium term outcomes in markets.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI India ETF / Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis View: The June quarter end close completed a bullish LT reversal pattern confirming the likely end of the 2015/2016 correction. We anticipate an immediate return to the LT uptrend and target a 1-2 year upswing generating new LT uptrend highs beyond the 2015 high at 9119.Price Action: The LT uptrend produced major corrections of 4 quarters in duration after the highs of 2008, 2010 and 2015. The most recent 4 quarter correction, after the high of 2015, has once again preceded an  impulsive bullish quarterly reversal pattern in Q2 2016. This confirms a high probability return to the LT uptrend. Momentum: Momentum has realigned to a positive bias across ST, MT and LT time frames.Key Levels: Corrective dips in the recent months have found support around the 50 day MA. Dips must remain above the 50 day MA (currently at 8045/65) on a daily close basis to maintain the uptrend bias.

Technical Analysis View: The June quarter end close completed a bullish LT reversal pattern confirming the likely end of the 2015/2016 correction. We anticipate an immediate return to the LT uptrend and target a 1-2 year upswing generating new LT uptrend highs beyond the 2015 high at 9119.Price Action: The LT uptrend produced major corrections of 4 quarters in duration after the highs of 2008, 2010 and 2015. The most recent 4 quarter correction, after the high of 2015, has once again preceded an  impulsive bullish quarterly reversal pattern in Q2 2016. This confirms a high probability return to the LT uptrend. Momentum: Momentum has realigned to a positive bias across ST, MT and LT time frames.Key Levels: Corrective dips in the recent months have found support around the 50 day MA. Dips must remain above the 50 day MA (currently at 8045/65) on a daily close basis to maintain the uptrend bias.

NSE Nifty 50 Index: Bull Market Confirmation

Asia Economist and CEO, Centennial Asia Advisors

Manu Bhaskaran

Asia Economist and CEO

Centennial Asia Advisors

At Centennial Asia Advisors, we tell it like it is. We have no vested interests, no need for a China wall, and no reason to skew our outlook any other way. With over 30 years experience covering Asia’s political economy, you can be sure our conclusions and analyses are based on the unadulterated facts. Through years of fine-tuning our research methodologies, we deliver a quality of macroeconomic analysis few other houses can match.

Centennial Asia Advisors is an independent research and advisory firm that works with governments, multilateral institutions, financial firms and leading MNCs.

Economic Policy and Strategic Advisors

Macroeconomics

Prime Minister Modi appears to be making a renewed effort to push reforms including in contentious areas such as labour laws:<ul><li>
Labour laws being tweaked: The Cabinet is discussing fixed-term employment contracts that reduce the disparity in wages and incentives between contractual and permanent workers. The government also aims to bear the 12% of employers’ contribution of the Employees’ Provident Fund Scheme to leave more money in the hands of the workers and promote employment in the formal…</li></ul>

Prime Minister Modi appears to be making a renewed effort to push reforms including in contentious areas such as labour laws:
Labour laws being tweaked: The Cabinet is discussing fixed-term employment contracts that reduce the disparity in wages and incentives between contractual and permanent workers. The government also aims to bear the 12% of employers’ contribution of the Employees’ Provident Fund Scheme to leave more money in the hands of the workers and promote employment in the formal…

<ul><li>The global environment appears more and more threatening to Asian economies, with rising risks of currency market volatility in Asia. In this context, we see the credibility of central banks and how appropriately valued their currencies as crucial determinants of resilience in the face of potential shocks.</li><li>We examined inflation differentials to identify which currencies could be under threat and which would be relatively more robust.</li></ul>

The global environment appears more and more threatening to Asian economies, with rising risks of currency market volatility in Asia. In this context, we see the credibility of central banks and how appropriately valued their currencies as crucial determinants of resilience in the face of potential shocks.We examined inflation differentials to identify which currencies could be under threat and which would be relatively more robust.

Asian Currencies: What Inflation Differentials Show

The reforms credentials of Modi government have been dented with news of exit of Raghuram Rajan, Governor Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in September. Rajan is widely credited for initiating monetary policy reforms, maintaining the independence of RBI and also raising its stature as a strong institution globally. Failure to retain him will cost the economy in the medium to long run especially if any of the reforms undertaken are diluted. Many of the critics of Rajan state that a country does not…

The reforms credentials of Modi government have been dented with news of exit of Raghuram Rajan, Governor Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in September. Rajan is widely credited for initiating monetary policy reforms, maintaining the independence of RBI and also raising its stature as a strong institution globally. Failure to retain him will cost the economy in the medium to long run especially if any of the reforms undertaken are diluted. Many of the critics of Rajan state that a country does not…

Post Rajan World: Potential Red Flags to Watch & Why Strong Personality Head Imp in EMs Institutions

India

iShares MSCI India ETF is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA. The ETF seeks investment results that correspond generally to the price and yield performance, before fees and expenses, of the MSCI India Index.

iShares MSCI India ETF (INDA US)

Looking for Yield? India Office Property Offers 10%; Sector on an Uptick; REIT Listings Next Trigger

The commercial office property market in India is showing good signs of revival since last year Demand indicators as seen through the leasing...

Asia Advisors

NSE Nifty 50 Index: Bull Market Confirmation

Technical Analysis View: The June quarter end close completed a bullish LT reversal pattern confirming the likely end of the 2015/2016 correction....

David Coloretti, CMT

India: Deregulation a Boost to FDI

Prime Minister Modi appears to be making a renewed effort to push reforms including in contentious areas such as labour laws: Labour laws being...

Manu Bhaskaran

Asian Currencies: What Inflation Differentials Show

The global environment appears more and more threatening to Asian economies, with rising risks of currency market volatility in Asia. In this...

Manu Bhaskaran

Post Rajan World: Potential Red Flags to Watch & Why Strong Personality Head Imp in EMs Institutions

The reforms credentials of Modi government have been dented with news of exit of Raghuram Rajan, Governor Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in September....

Asia Advisors