Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

REAL-Economics.com

Macroeconomics

The election results from 5 states where the BJP has traditionally been non-existent (Assam, West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Kerala and the city of Puducherry) have provided a shot in the arm for PM Narendra Modi. His BJP-led alliance won a landslide victory in Assam, and managed to win more seats than expected in West Bengal and Kerala (for the first time ever). Modi's legislative agenda will gain momentum.  Crucially, the main Opposition Congress party was decimated. Congress had ruled Assam for 15…

The election results from 5 states where the BJP has traditionally been non-existent (Assam, West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Kerala and the city of Puducherry) have provided a shot in the arm for PM Narendra Modi. His BJP-led alliance won a landslide victory in Assam, and managed to win more seats than expected in West Bengal and Kerala (for the first time ever). Modi's legislative agenda will gain momentum.  Crucially, the main Opposition Congress party was decimated. Congress had ruled Assam for 15…

India: State Elections Help Bolster Modi's Agenda

Asia focused research insights & advisory, Asia Advisors

Vinay Patel

Asia focused research insights & advisory

Asia Advisors

Asia Advisors is an independent financial advisory and research firm working closely with corporates and institutions to provide consulting solutions & research insights. We provide advisory services including capital solutions, business strategy and investment insights.
Firm is headed by Vinay Patel who has close to two decades of experience in research and business development at large, international investment banks such as HSBC and ICICI Securities. Led research efforts in areas of Macroeconomics, Asset Allocation & Investment Strategy for close to a decade in global & domestic research teams. As a business head in Singapore, advised top global investment management firms & Portfolio managers in Asia for India related investments.
Vinay was recently joined by Swapnil Manish, an investment banker and ex-ecommerce entrepreneur with more than 12 years of experience. Swapnil was the TMT banker at BNP Paribas and was part of several large M&A and ECM transactions (Bharti-Zain, Bharti Infratel IPO, Schneider-Zicom among several others). He's also had a stint as an ecommerce entrepreneur having launched & led Mumbai's first online grocery player.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

The Indian IPO market has outperformed global peers and remains a silver-lining in an otherwise lackluster secondary market. The quality of issuance and new sectors that are opening up provide a welcome relief for investors stung by old economy sectors. For example issues like those in micro-finance space provide good alternative (even if in a small way), to existing stocks in the financial sector that are suffering from high NPLs. The Indian market, with close to US$1bn in primary deals ytd, is…

The Indian IPO market has outperformed global peers and remains a silver-lining in an otherwise lackluster secondary market. The quality of issuance and new sectors that are opening up provide a welcome relief for investors stung by old economy sectors. For example issues like those in micro-finance space provide good alternative (even if in a small way), to existing stocks in the financial sector that are suffering from high NPLs. The Indian market, with close to US$1bn in primary deals ytd, is…

India IPO Market – Batting Strong on a Good Pitch; Poised for a Long Innings!

Narendra Modi government completes two years in office this month and initial euphoria surrounding his victory has been quickly replaced by widespread disappointment in second year as reform momentum and economic growth lag expectations. His inability to resolve stalemate in Parliament has held up key reforms that many thought would be a cakewalk after his huge election win. Today, market participants are adjusting to new realities that slow growth and lack of reforms may well be here to stay as logjam in Rajya Sabha (upper house) continues and banking sector clean up takes much longer.We look at the fine print beyond the headlines to see how the government machinery is responding these new realities in order to make an objective assessment. Even as many observers are writing off this govt after seeing the first two year performance, we find it is not all gloom for the economy and government's steady push for infra creation, emphasis on incremental reforms relating to financial inclusion, green energy along with strong support to Central bank in banking sector clean up sets stage for higher growth in coming years. Below we evaluate the arguments on both sides of the spectrum.

Narendra Modi government completes two years in office this month and initial euphoria surrounding his victory has been quickly replaced by widespread disappointment in second year as reform momentum and economic growth lag expectations. His inability to resolve stalemate in Parliament has held up key reforms that many thought would be a cakewalk after his huge election win. Today, market participants are adjusting to new realities that slow growth and lack of reforms may well be here to stay as logjam in Rajya Sabha (upper house) continues and banking sector clean up takes much longer.We look at the fine print beyond the headlines to see how the government machinery is responding these new realities in order to make an objective assessment. Even as many observers are writing off this govt after seeing the first two year performance, we find it is not all gloom for the economy and government's steady push for infra creation, emphasis on incremental reforms relating to financial inclusion, green energy along with strong support to Central bank in banking sector clean up sets stage for higher growth in coming years. Below we evaluate the arguments on both sides of the spectrum.

Second Year Review of Modi Govt: Silverlinings in Growth & Infra; Rajan Says on Cusp of a Revolution

EM PM, Ecstrat

Emad Mostaque

EM PM

Ecstrat

Ecstrat is a consultancy advising on asset allocation between global equity markets, with a focus on the intersection of governments, geopolitics, governance and markets.
 
Over the past few years and more especially since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), investors have become more focused on short-term market movements and real-time returns and have consequently neglected the analysis of the underlying structural themes that underpin longer term performance.
​
More specifically we believe that the evolution of governance-based relationships between investors, controlling shareholders, labour and the state is one of the primary determinants of both relative and absolute performance between individual equity markets.
 
We will endeavour to provide investors with some of the context surrounding governance-related issues which encompass many different disciplines including history, economics and political science, as well as the financial metrics which are the most obvious manifestation of the structural characteristics of each market.
 
We will pay particular attention to the shifts and potential inflection points for governance in individual markets as these are often the best lead indicators for both economic and market performance.

This weekend saw the retirement of long-serving Saudi oil minister Ali al-Naimi and his replacement by the Chairman of Aramco, Khalid al-Falih.At 80 years of age, the retirement of al-Naimi had been on the cards for a number of years, with some indications that it had been scheduled to occur five years ago, but was postponed given the need for stability as the Arab Spring erupted in the region.Now that he has moved on to a position as advisor to the Royal Court, whether Saudi oil policy will…

This weekend saw the retirement of long-serving Saudi oil minister Ali al-Naimi and his replacement by the Chairman of Aramco, Khalid al-Falih.At 80 years of age, the retirement of al-Naimi had been on the cards for a number of years, with some indications that it had been scheduled to occur five years ago, but was postponed given the need for stability as the Arab Spring erupted in the region.Now that he has moved on to a position as advisor to the Royal Court, whether Saudi oil policy will…

New Saudi Oil Minister, Old Saudi Oil Policy

Asia Economist and CEO, Centennial Asia Advisors

Manu Bhaskaran

Asia Economist and CEO

Centennial Asia Advisors

At Centennial Asia Advisors, we tell it like it is. We have no vested interests, no need for a China wall, and no reason to skew our outlook any other way. With over 30 years experience covering Asia’s political economy, you can be sure our conclusions and analyses are based on the unadulterated facts. Through years of fine-tuning our research methodologies, we deliver a quality of macroeconomic analysis few other houses can match.

Centennial Asia Advisors is an independent research and advisory firm that works with governments, multilateral institutions, financial firms and leading MNCs.

Economic Policy and Strategic Advisors

<ul><li>Export growth remains lacklustre and mostly contractionary. The only bright spots for exports are Malaysia and Vietnam, but even Malaysia’s export growth is dimming as Vietnam holds up well, testament to its competitiveness.</li><li>Purchasing manager surveys had more negatives than positives. Inflation rates have remained broadly low suggesting room for monetary easing, but domestic conditions limit the scope of monetary policy for some countries in the region. </li></ul>

Export growth remains lacklustre and mostly contractionary. The only bright spots for exports are Malaysia and Vietnam, but even Malaysia’s export growth is dimming as Vietnam holds up well, testament to its competitiveness.Purchasing manager surveys had more negatives than positives. Inflation rates have remained broadly low suggesting room for monetary easing, but domestic conditions limit the scope of monetary policy for some countries in the region. 

Asian Outlook and the Implications for Monetary Policy

India

iShares MSCI India ETF is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA. The ETF seeks investment results that correspond generally to the price and yield performance, before fees and expenses, of the MSCI India Index.

iShares MSCI India ETF (INDA US)

India: State Elections Help Bolster Modi's Agenda

The election results from 5 states where the BJP has traditionally been non-existent (Assam, West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Kerala and the city of...

Prasenjit K. Basu

India IPO Market – Batting Strong on a Good Pitch; Poised for a Long Innings!

The Indian IPO market has outperformed global peers and remains a silver-lining in an otherwise lackluster secondary market. The quality of...

Asia Advisors

Second Year Review of Modi Govt: Silverlinings in Growth & Infra; Rajan Says on Cusp of a Revolution

Narendra Modi government completes two years in office this month and initial euphoria surrounding his victory has been quickly replaced by...

Asia Advisors

New Saudi Oil Minister, Old Saudi Oil Policy

This weekend saw the retirement of long-serving Saudi oil minister Ali al-Naimi and his replacement by the Chairman of Aramco, Khalid al-Falih.At...

Emad Mostaque

Asian Outlook and the Implications for Monetary Policy

Export growth remains lacklustre and mostly contractionary. The only bright spots for exports are Malaysia and Vietnam, but even Malaysia’s export...

Manu Bhaskaran