ASEAN (Indo) & China-focused. Ex-Deputy HoR UBS.

Johannes Salim, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>In the first-round Jakarta gubernatorial election (2/15), quick count reveals that Ahok, a reformist, came out on top with 43% of the votes, followed by Anies (40%) and Agus (17%)</li>
<li>Some of our key takeaways are 1) (perceived) characters of a candidate is very important, 2) people power wins, and 3) populist tone is not everything.</li>
<li>The runoff election will be held on 19 Apr, with Ahok having a good chance of winning. </li>
</ul>Jakarta Gubernatorial Election Day (2/15) just passed hours ago, literally…


In the first-round Jakarta gubernatorial election (2/15), quick count reveals that Ahok, a reformist, came out on top with 43% of the votes, followed by Anies (40%) and Agus (17%)
Some of our key takeaways are 1) (perceived) characters of a candidate is very important, 2) people power wins, and 3) populist tone is not everything.
The runoff election will be held on 19 Apr, with Ahok having a good chance of winning. 
Jakarta Gubernatorial Election Day (2/15) just passed hours ago, literally…

Indo Politics: Who Is The Winner of Jakarta Gubernatorial Election?

Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

REAL-Economics.com

Macroeconomics

The tight race for Jakarta governor remains too close to call, so political uncertainty will be prolonged. While Jokowi's coalition will be weakened if the secularist ticket fails to win the runoff for Jakarta governorship, the very fact of a tight contest is a testament to the resilience of Indonesia's democracy.Today's Jakarta gubernatorial election is increasingly seen as a proxy fight among the three current titans of Indonesian politics -- incumbent President Joko Widodo, his predecessor…

The tight race for Jakarta governor remains too close to call, so political uncertainty will be prolonged. While Jokowi's coalition will be weakened if the secularist ticket fails to win the runoff for Jakarta governorship, the very fact of a tight contest is a testament to the resilience of Indonesia's democracy.Today's Jakarta gubernatorial election is increasingly seen as a proxy fight among the three current titans of Indonesian politics -- incumbent President Joko Widodo, his predecessor…

Indonesia: Democracy a Long Term Stabilizer, Despite Episodic Ructions

Asia Economist and CEO, Centennial Asia Advisors

Manu Bhaskaran

Asia Economist and CEO

Centennial Asia Advisors

At Centennial Asia Advisors, we tell it like it is. We have no vested interests, no need for a China wall, and no reason to skew our outlook any other way. With over 30 years experience covering Asia’s political economy, you can be sure our conclusions and analyses are based on the unadulterated facts. Through years of fine-tuning our research methodologies, we deliver a quality of macroeconomic analysis few other houses can match.

Centennial Asia Advisors is an independent research and advisory firm that works with governments, multilateral institutions, financial firms and leading MNCs.

Economic Policy and Strategic Advisors

<ul>
<li>
Growth underwhelms in 4Q16: The Indonesian economy grew 4.9% y/y in 4Q16, down from 5.0% in 3Q16, capping off a disappointing year. Overall, the economy grew 5.02% in 2016, up from 4.88% in 2015, but below the government’s 5.3% target.</li>
<li>
Private consumption continues to be a strong driver of Indonesian growth. Exports, which were bolstered by higher commodity prices, grew 4.2% y/y, up from a 5.6% contraction in 3Q16. Fiscal spending was especially tepid, contracting 4.0% in 4Q16, down from the…</li>
</ul>



Growth underwhelms in 4Q16: The Indonesian economy grew 4.9% y/y in 4Q16, down from 5.0% in 3Q16, capping off a disappointing year. Overall, the economy grew 5.02% in 2016, up from 4.88% in 2015, but below the government’s 5.3% target.

Private consumption continues to be a strong driver of Indonesian growth. Exports, which were bolstered by higher commodity prices, grew 4.2% y/y, up from a 5.6% contraction in 3Q16. Fiscal spending was especially tepid, contracting 4.0% in 4Q16, down from the…


Indonesia: Growth Contingent upon Targeted Fiscal Stimulus

<ul>
<li>The correlation between Emerging Markets Asia and US market has reversed to a positive coefficient YTD (a typical global bull market's sign).</li>
<li>Our chart of the day reveals that Indonesia (Indo) and Philippines are the least vulnerable to trade war risk.</li>
<li>We are bearish on China's macro fundamentals and concerned of looming intense trade negotiations with the US.</li>
</ul>As we have been watching CNBC's US market coverage (its TV show is called "Opening Bell") past two weeks, we can't help but think that there…


The correlation between Emerging Markets Asia and US market has reversed to a positive coefficient YTD (a typical global bull market's sign).
Our chart of the day reveals that Indonesia (Indo) and Philippines are the least vulnerable to trade war risk.
We are bearish on China's macro fundamentals and concerned of looming intense trade negotiations with the US.
As we have been watching CNBC's US market coverage (its TV show is called "Opening Bell") past two weeks, we can't help but think that there…

Asia Market Strategy: Will The Bulls Win in 2017 on The Back of Trumponomics?

<ul>
<li>
Trump stepped back from direct confrontation with China: In his phone call with Chinese President Xi, Trump acceded to China’s request to honour the longstanding “One China” policy, which he had appeared to question in his tweets. But the potential downside risks in the bilateral relationship were made clear by reports of an “unsafe” interaction between a Chinese surveillance plane and a US Navy P-3C Orion surveillance aircraft on the same day.</li>
<li>
North Korean missile test not a huge deal: The test…</li>
</ul>



Trump stepped back from direct confrontation with China: In his phone call with Chinese President Xi, Trump acceded to China’s request to honour the longstanding “One China” policy, which he had appeared to question in his tweets. But the potential downside risks in the bilateral relationship were made clear by reports of an “unsafe” interaction between a Chinese surveillance plane and a US Navy P-3C Orion surveillance aircraft on the same day.

North Korean missile test not a huge deal: The test…


Geopolitics: Trump Refines Approach to China

Indonesia

iShares MSCI Indonesia ETF is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA. The ETF seeks investment results that correspond to the performance of the MSCI Indonesia Investable Market Index.

iShares MSCI Indonesia ETF (EIDO US)

Indo Politics: Who Is The Winner of Jakarta Gubernatorial Election?

In the first-round Jakarta gubernatorial election (2/15), quick count reveals that Ahok, a reformist, came out on top with 43% of the votes,...

Johannes Salim, CFA

Indonesia: Democracy a Long Term Stabilizer, Despite Episodic Ructions

The tight race for Jakarta governor remains too close to call, so political uncertainty will be prolonged. While Jokowi's coalition will be...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Indonesia: Growth Contingent upon Targeted Fiscal Stimulus

Growth underwhelms in 4Q16: The Indonesian economy grew 4.9% y/y in 4Q16, down from 5.0% in 3Q16, capping off a disappointing year. Overall, the...

Manu Bhaskaran

Asia Market Strategy: Will The Bulls Win in 2017 on The Back of Trumponomics?

The correlation between Emerging Markets Asia and US market has reversed to a positive coefficient YTD (a typical global bull market's sign). Our...

Johannes Salim, CFA

Geopolitics: Trump Refines Approach to China

Trump stepped back from direct confrontation with China: In his phone call with Chinese President Xi, Trump acceded to China’s request to honour...

Manu Bhaskaran