ASEAN (Indo) & China-focused. Ex-Deputy HoR UBS.

Johannes Salim, CFA

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Indonesia's (Indo's) 4Q16 Current Account Deficit (CAD) has considerably improved to 0.8% of GDP, the first quarter since 1Q12 in which CAD/GDP ratio dropped below 1%.</li>
<li>Financial account remained in considerable surplus, mainly thanks to repatriation of assets following tax amnesty program and direct/portfolio investment remaining healthy.</li>
<li>Fundamentals of Balance of Payment (BOP) and subsequently forex reserves have strengthened.  </li>
</ul>Bank Indonesia (BI) released Indo's 4Q16 BOP last Friday (2/10)…


Indonesia's (Indo's) 4Q16 Current Account Deficit (CAD) has considerably improved to 0.8% of GDP, the first quarter since 1Q12 in which CAD/GDP ratio dropped below 1%.
Financial account remained in considerable surplus, mainly thanks to repatriation of assets following tax amnesty program and direct/portfolio investment remaining healthy.
Fundamentals of Balance of Payment (BOP) and subsequently forex reserves have strengthened.  
Bank Indonesia (BI) released Indo's 4Q16 BOP last Friday (2/10)…

Investing in high growth Asian frontier economies., Asia Frontier Capital

Scott Osheroff

Investing in high growth Asian frontier economies.

Asia Frontier Capital

Asia Frontier Capital Ltd. is a pioneering fund management company based in Hong Kong that specializes in investing in high growth Asian frontier economies by managing the AFC Asia Frontier Fund , AFC Iraq Fund and the AFC Vietnam Fund.

The AFC Asia Frontier Fund invests in public equities of Asian frontier countries that are seeing increasing consumption due to favorable demographic trends, rising incomes and high GDP growth. The fund invests in listed equities of companies that have their principal business activities in Bangladesh, Bhutan, Cambodia, Iraq, Laos, Maldives, Mongolia, Myanmar (Burma), Nepal, Pakistan, Papua New Guinea, Sri Lanka and Vietnam. The AFC Asia Frontier Fund is positioned to take advantage of the continuing economic shifts in these countries and offers high returns combined with significant diversification opportunities. This fund is directed by the founder and CEO of Asia Frontier Capital, Thomas Hugger, who has been investing in frontier markets across Asia and Africa for more than 20 years.

The AFC Iraq Fund was launched on the 26th June 2015 and aims to achieve long-term capital appreciation for investors by capturing value and growth potential in the post conflict high-growth & resource rich Iraq market. The fund emphasises long term investment horizon to truly capture the opportunity in Iraq. The fund's investable universe consists of locally listed companies that have their principal business activities in Iraq as well as foreign listed companies that have the majority of the business in Iraq as a whole including the prosperous Kurdish Region of Iraq (KRI). The AFC Iraq Fund offers access to investments in post conflict recovery potential of Iraq, including the KRI, and/or stability in its territory. The AFC Iraq Fund is managed by Asia Frontier Capital (Iraq) Limited, Cayman Islands under the executive leadership team of Thomas Hugger (CEO & Fund Manager) and Ahmed Tabaqchali (CIO) who have more than 47 years of investment experience as well as an extensive background covering global, emerging, frontier and MENA markets.

The AFC Vietnam Fund invests exclusively in listed Vietnamese equities to capture value in growth companies with a focus on the small to medium size companies. This market segment offers a unique investment opportunity as the valuation gap between large- and small-cap stocks in Vietnam is presently much wider than in comparable neighboring markets and the valuations are significantly depressed versus their regional peers. The fund adopts a fundamental-quantitative approach and employs an in-house earnings model to identify attractive companies where we see high growth opportunities. In conjunction with targeting the maximum upside potential the portfolio has been structured to mitigate corporate government and liquidity risks. The fund invests in a diversified portfolio of 70-90 attractively valued companies to carefully control concentration risk.  This approach allows the fund to sell, or buy, positions without having a significant market impact. The fund is directed under the executive leadership of Thomas Hugger and Andreas Vogelsanger who have more than 50 years combined experience managing investments in frontier markets, Asia and around the world.

For more information about the fund, management team and investment strategy please contact us at info@asiafrontiercapital.com.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In line with our process of being on the ground in the countries we invest in, Scott Osheroff, Analyst at Asia Frontier Capital, travelled to Myanmar and conducted meetings with portfolio companies and other companies on our shortlist. The photos in this article are all by AFC.

In line with our process of being on the ground in the countries we invest in, Scott Osheroff, Analyst at Asia Frontier Capital, travelled to Myanmar and conducted meetings with portfolio companies and other companies on our shortlist. The photos in this article are all by AFC.

Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

REAL-Economics.com

With CPI inflation below 3.5% YoY in January, and the current account likely to have improved sharply in 4Q 2016, we expect a 25bp rate cut at this month's monetary policy meeting. The Jakarta gubernatorial election is a political wildcard, although a Black Swan outcome is looking less likely: Ahok needs to win if President Jokowi is not to be destabilized halfway through his first term.Robust exports bolster the quarterly trade surplus to a 5-year high in 4Q 2016. The export rebound stayed on…

With CPI inflation below 3.5% YoY in January, and the current account likely to have improved sharply in 4Q 2016, we expect a 25bp rate cut at this month's monetary policy meeting. The Jakarta gubernatorial election is a political wildcard, although a Black Swan outcome is looking less likely: Ahok needs to win if President Jokowi is not to be destabilized halfway through his first term.Robust exports bolster the quarterly trade surplus to a 5-year high in 4Q 2016. The export rebound stayed on…

Asia Economist and CEO, Centennial Asia Advisors

Manu Bhaskaran

Asia Economist and CEO

Centennial Asia Advisors

At Centennial Asia Advisors, we tell it like it is. We have no vested interests, no need for a China wall, and no reason to skew our outlook any other way. With over 30 years experience covering Asia’s political economy, you can be sure our conclusions and analyses are based on the unadulterated facts. Through years of fine-tuning our research methodologies, we deliver a quality of macroeconomic analysis few other houses can match.

Centennial Asia Advisors is an independent research and advisory firm that works with governments, multilateral institutions, financial firms and leading MNCs.

Economic Policy and Strategic Advisors

<ul><li>The Indonesian government released the 15th tranche of its economic policy. The ‘Economic Justice Policy’, aimed at improving welfare and reducing inequality, addresses 3 key areas; the land and agricultural sector, access to capital for micro, small and medium enterprises and improving job opportunities.</li></ul>Assessment: Previous tranches have laid foundations for impactful reforms<ul><li>The Jokowi Administration’s strategy is to eschew bold, headline grabbing reforms and instead focus on small-scale…</li></ul>

The Indonesian government released the 15th tranche of its economic policy. The ‘Economic Justice Policy’, aimed at improving welfare and reducing inequality, addresses 3 key areas; the land and agricultural sector, access to capital for micro, small and medium enterprises and improving job opportunities.Assessment: Previous tranches have laid foundations for impactful reformsThe Jokowi Administration’s strategy is to eschew bold, headline grabbing reforms and instead focus on small-scale…

<ul><li>
Incumbent Governor Ahok’s comeback: According to a Charta Politika poll conducted between 17 and 24 Jan 17, the Ahok-Djarot team, which has the implicit backing of the President, has improved its electability rating to 36.8% for the upcoming Jakarta gubernatorial election from 28.9% in Nov 16, when Ahok was hit by blasphemy charges which he has hotly denied. The race is shaping up as a battle between Ahok and former Education Minister Anies Baswedan, as Agus Yudhoyono, son of former President…</li></ul>


Incumbent Governor Ahok’s comeback: According to a Charta Politika poll conducted between 17 and 24 Jan 17, the Ahok-Djarot team, which has the implicit backing of the President, has improved its electability rating to 36.8% for the upcoming Jakarta gubernatorial election from 28.9% in Nov 16, when Ahok was hit by blasphemy charges which he has hotly denied. The race is shaping up as a battle between Ahok and former Education Minister Anies Baswedan, as Agus Yudhoyono, son of former President…

Indonesia: Run up to Jakarta Gubernatorial Elections

Indonesia

iShares MSCI Indonesia ETF is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA. The ETF seeks investment results that correspond to the performance of the MSCI Indonesia Investable Market Index.

iShares MSCI Indonesia ETF (EIDO US)

Indo Macro, How Is Your Achilles' Heel?

Indonesia's (Indo's) 4Q16 Current Account Deficit (CAD) has considerably improved to 0.8% of GDP, the first quarter since 1Q12 in which CAD/GDP...

Johannes Salim, CFA

Myanmar Travel Report

In line with our process of being on the ground in the countries we invest in, Scott Osheroff, Analyst at Asia Frontier Capital, travelled to...

Asia Frontier Capital

Indonesia: On Track for a Rate Cut Soon

With CPI inflation below 3.5% YoY in January, and the current account likely to have improved sharply in 4Q 2016, we expect a 25bp rate cut at this...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Indonesia 15th Policy Package

The Indonesian government released the 15th tranche of its economic policy. The ‘Economic Justice Policy’, aimed at improving welfare and reducing...

Manu Bhaskaran

Indonesia: Run up to Jakarta Gubernatorial Elections

Incumbent Governor Ahok’s comeback: According to a Charta Politika poll conducted between 17 and 24 Jan 17, the Ahok-Djarot team, which has the...

Manu Bhaskaran