FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

Macroeconomics

<p><em>The USD/JPY has plunged below its previous lows since November 2014. The next major support is the levels preceding the Oct-2014 BoJ QQE phase two policy easing (USD/JPY around 110).  The fall comes despite the short term yield advantage for the USD/JPY rising to its widest margin in many years.  The key driver is higher global market uncertainty sharply reducing yield-seeking behavior.  The effectiveness of unconventional QE/negative rate policies appears to have sharply diminished over the last year.  We may even be witnessing the undesirable unintended consequences of prolonged global QE coming home to roost and dampening market confidence.  Nevertheless it is hard to see any other path for the BoJ and ECB, suggesting both may opt for more negative rates and play the intervention card if currencies strength persist.  We note that in the most recent bout of global market uncertainty this year, intensifying since the BoJ opted for negative rates on 29-Jan, JPY has not strengthened more than gold.</em></p>

The USD/JPY has plunged below its previous lows since November 2014. The next major support is the levels preceding the Oct-2014 BoJ QQE phase two policy easing (USD/JPY around 110).  The fall comes despite the short term yield advantage for the USD/JPY rising to its widest margin in many years.  The key driver is higher global market uncertainty sharply reducing yield-seeking behavior.  The effectiveness of unconventional QE/negative rate policies appears to have sharply diminished over the last year.  We may even be witnessing the undesirable unintended consequences of prolonged global QE coming home to roost and dampening market confidence.  Nevertheless it is hard to see any other path for the BoJ and ECB, suggesting both may opt for more negative rates and play the intervention card if currencies strength persist.  We note that in the most recent bout of global market uncertainty this year, intensifying since the BoJ opted for negative rates on 29-Jan, JPY has not strengthened more than gold.

AmpGFX - JPY Feeling the Unintended Consequences of QE

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI Emerging Markets / Technical Analysis

<div>
<strong>S&amp;P decline on track as the risk off move lower gains traction. S&amp;P uptick resistance near 1,950+ is the zone to add to shorts with an ideal cap of 1,965</strong>. Financials and small caps are our sector short points of interest.</div><div>
<strong>US and European banks were touted as a good short lead trade during this decline</strong>. Remember our GS short back at 212. GS is a stock to watch for a lead relative turn as financials reach for a foothold in February.</div><div>
<strong>Europe has been the favored short trade over US equities and</strong>…</div>


S&amp;P decline on track as the risk off move lower gains traction. S&amp;P uptick resistance near 1,950+ is the zone to add to shorts with an ideal cap of 1,965. Financials and small caps are our sector short points of interest.
US and European banks were touted as a good short lead trade during this decline. Remember our GS short back at 212. GS is a stock to watch for a lead relative turn as financials reach for a foothold in February.
Europe has been the favored short trade over US equities and…

<p>All major equities are again below the lows in 2015 after a dead-cat bounce sending another body-blow to global investor confidence.  Bottom fishers will be tentative and choppy bearish markets are likely to persist.  Financials (led by Europe) are leading the falls in equities; regulatory pressure implemented in the wake of the global and Eurozone financial crises and litigation and compliance costs since the LIBOR and FX fixing scandals are coming home to roost and creating an echo of the financial stress that undermined global economic confidence in the crises of the last decade.  EUR is whippy as investors cope with Euro-centric financial sector stress, but this is only likely to embolden the ECB to adopt more aggressive policy easing measures.  It is possible they emulate the BoJ and adopt a tiered cash rate policy resplendent with a much lower more negative marginal cash rate.  The outcome would be much lower yields across the EUR curve and a weaker EUR (we much prefer to sell EUR against Gold; as discussed in our previous two reports). Australia has proven resilient to global economic and financial stress, but its banks are being infected by global pressures, and we see a significant risk that RBA scope to cut rates turns into an obligation before long.  We see a fallback in the AUD (again we prefer to sell against gold).</p>

All major equities are again below the lows in 2015 after a dead-cat bounce sending another body-blow to global investor confidence.  Bottom fishers will be tentative and choppy bearish markets are likely to persist.  Financials (led by Europe) are leading the falls in equities; regulatory pressure implemented in the wake of the global and Eurozone financial crises and litigation and compliance costs since the LIBOR and FX fixing scandals are coming home to roost and creating an echo of the financial stress that undermined global economic confidence in the crises of the last decade.  EUR is whippy as investors cope with Euro-centric financial sector stress, but this is only likely to embolden the ECB to adopt more aggressive policy easing measures.  It is possible they emulate the BoJ and adopt a tiered cash rate policy resplendent with a much lower more negative marginal cash rate.  The outcome would be much lower yields across the EUR curve and a weaker EUR (we much prefer to sell EUR against Gold; as discussed in our previous two reports). Australia has proven resilient to global economic and financial stress, but its banks are being infected by global pressures, and we see a significant risk that RBA scope to cut rates turns into an obligation before long.  We see a fallback in the AUD (again we prefer to sell against gold).

AmpGFX - Dead-Cats and Body Blows, Financial Crisis Echo, RBA Scope to Become Obligation

<p>The Bank has cut the effective cash interest rate to -0.1% from +0.1% (-20bp).  Banks will be required to pay 0.1% on balances held in their current account that are above a certain threshold.</p><p>In order not to tax banks too much, the BoJ has introduced a three-tier system with current account balances up to the first tier still earning 0.1%, zero on the second tier and -0.1% on the third tier.</p><p>This third tier rate will be the most relevant to money market rates since, with excess reserve balances…</p>

The Bank has cut the effective cash interest rate to -0.1% from +0.1% (-20bp).  Banks will be required to pay 0.1% on balances held in their current account that are above a certain threshold.In order not to tax banks too much, the BoJ has introduced a three-tier system with current account balances up to the first tier still earning 0.1%, zero on the second tier and -0.1% on the third tier.This third tier rate will be the most relevant to money market rates since, with excess reserve balances…

AmpGFX - Quick Take on the BoJ Shock Rate Cut

<p><a href="http://www.screencast.com/t/mxK3sCSR" target="_blank">Our view for a zig zag uptick sequence has not changed and counting on a secondary low in the S&amp;P and oil to provide support for a final uptick attempt later this week/early next week before the bear cycle resumes. Difficult to trade 2 day swings. We are allowing for a 2-3 day draw down followed by a final push up next week to re cycle shorts.</a></p><div>
<a href="http://www.screencast.com/t/mxK3sCSR" target="_blank">We look at support points in our long Nikkei (17,600 rally target) and Taiwan (8,000 trendline and sliding) with a smaller bet in Thailand (1,300+ to exit</a>…</div>

Our view for a zig zag uptick sequence has not changed and counting on a secondary low in the S&amp;P and oil to provide support for a final uptick attempt later this week/early next week before the bear cycle resumes. Difficult to trade 2 day swings. We are allowing for a 2-3 day draw down followed by a final push up next week to re cycle shorts.
We look at support points in our long Nikkei (17,600 rally target) and Taiwan (8,000 trendline and sliding) with a smaller bet in Thailand (1,300+ to exit…

Japan

iShares MSCI Japan ETF is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA. The ETF's objective seeks to provide investment results that correspond to the performance of the Japanese market, as measured by the MSCI Japan Index. The ETF invests in a representative sample of index stocks in a variety of sectors using a market cap weighted "portfolio sampling" technique.

iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ US)

AmpGFX - JPY Feeling the Unintended Consequences of QE

The USD/JPY has plunged below its previous lows since November 2014. The next major support is the levels preceding the Oct-2014 BoJ QQE phase two...

Greg Gibbs

S&P, Europe Shorts and Aussie Banks

S&P decline on track as the risk off move lower gains traction. S&P uptick resistance near 1,950+ is the zone to add to shorts with an...

Thomas Schroeder

AmpGFX - Dead-Cats and Body Blows, Financial Crisis Echo, RBA Scope to Become Obligation

All major equities are again below the lows in 2015 after a dead-cat bounce sending another body-blow to global investor confidence. Bottom...

Greg Gibbs

AmpGFX - Quick Take on the BoJ Shock Rate Cut

The Bank has cut the effective cash interest rate to -0.1% from +0.1% (-20bp). Banks will be required to pay 0.1% on balances held in their...

Greg Gibbs

Asia into Next Week

Our view for a zig zag uptick sequence has not changed and counting on a secondary low in the S&P and oil to provide support for a final uptick...

Thomas Schroeder