Asia Economist and CEO, Centennial Asia Advisors

Manu Bhaskaran

Asia Economist and CEO

Centennial Asia Advisors

At Centennial Asia Advisors, we tell it like it is. We have no vested interests, no need for a China wall, and no reason to skew our outlook any other way. With over 30 years experience covering Asia’s political economy, you can be sure our conclusions and analyses are based on the unadulterated facts. Through years of fine-tuning our research methodologies, we deliver a quality of macroeconomic analysis few other houses can match.

Centennial Asia Advisors is an independent research and advisory firm that works with governments, multilateral institutions, financial firms and leading MNCs.

Economic Policy and Strategic Advisors

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>India is surging in global competitiveness, gaining 16 positions in the rankings - the largest gain of any country ever. Backed by expanding government reforms and inherent long-term advantages, India’s capacity for upside growth surprise is strengthening.</li><li>ASEAN countries will be the main winners from China’s stagnating competitiveness due to structural issues and rising costs. Despite small falls in ASEAN’s rankings, Indonesia, the Philippines and Vietnam have shown longer-term gains in competitiveness which reflect their rising growth potential.</li></ul>

India is surging in global competitiveness, gaining 16 positions in the rankings - the largest gain of any country ever. Backed by expanding government reforms and inherent long-term advantages, India’s capacity for upside growth surprise is strengthening.ASEAN countries will be the main winners from China’s stagnating competitiveness due to structural issues and rising costs. Despite small falls in ASEAN’s rankings, Indonesia, the Philippines and Vietnam have shown longer-term gains in competitiveness which reflect their rising growth potential.

Global Competitiveness Index 2016: Winners and Losers in Asia

Prime Minister Najib Razak announced the 2017 Budget on Friday, in which he appears to have struck the right balance between maintaining fiscal rectitude while providing benefits to key voting blocs, as he prepares for a likely early general election in 2017.<ul><li>
Realistic assumptions: By and large, the assumptions underlying the budget are reasonable, even conservative. Economic growth is projected at a modest 4%-5% in 2017 while the oil price is cautiously estimated to be USD40-45 per barrel in…</li></ul>

Prime Minister Najib Razak announced the 2017 Budget on Friday, in which he appears to have struck the right balance between maintaining fiscal rectitude while providing benefits to key voting blocs, as he prepares for a likely early general election in 2017.
Realistic assumptions: By and large, the assumptions underlying the budget are reasonable, even conservative. Economic growth is projected at a modest 4%-5% in 2017 while the oil price is cautiously estimated to be USD40-45 per barrel in…

Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

REAL-Economics.com

The Budget for 2017 contained a set of utterly unrealistic revenue and deficit projections, that are blithely oblivious to the sharp deterioration that has already occurred in 2016. In 1H 2016, Malaysia's fiscal deficit was 5.6% of GDP (double what it was in 1H 2015: 2.8% of GDP). Sharply lower oil prices have caused government revenue to decline sharply in 2016: for the first 8 months of the year, revenue was down 5.6% YoY, expenditure was up 3.4%YoY and the deficit has ballooned by 80.3% YoY…

The Budget for 2017 contained a set of utterly unrealistic revenue and deficit projections, that are blithely oblivious to the sharp deterioration that has already occurred in 2016. In 1H 2016, Malaysia's fiscal deficit was 5.6% of GDP (double what it was in 1H 2015: 2.8% of GDP). Sharply lower oil prices have caused government revenue to decline sharply in 2016: for the first 8 months of the year, revenue was down 5.6% YoY, expenditure was up 3.4%YoY and the deficit has ballooned by 80.3% YoY…

Fiscal Reality Will Either Cut GDP Growth or Cause the Deficit to Balloon

EM PM, Ecstrat

Emad Mostaque

EM PM

Ecstrat

Ecstrat is a consultancy advising on asset allocation between global equity markets, with a focus on the intersection of governments, geopolitics, governance and markets.
 
Over the past few years and more especially since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), investors have become more focused on short-term market movements and real-time returns and have consequently neglected the analysis of the underlying structural themes that underpin longer term performance.
​
More specifically we believe that the evolution of governance-based relationships between investors, controlling shareholders, labour and the state is one of the primary determinants of both relative and absolute performance between individual equity markets.
 
We will endeavour to provide investors with some of the context surrounding governance-related issues which encompass many different disciplines including history, economics and political science, as well as the financial metrics which are the most obvious manifestation of the structural characteristics of each market.
 
We will pay particular attention to the shifts and potential inflection points for governance in individual markets as these are often the best lead indicators for both economic and market performance.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Senate and Congress have overridden President Obama's veto on the Justice Against Sponsors of Terrorism (JASTA) legislation, designed to allow families of victims of terror attacks on US soil to sue any member of foreign governments (specifically the Saudi government) for support of these acts.The stripping of sovereign immunity will have profound implications for global geopolitics and the increasingly strained relationship of Gulf states and their traditional Western allies, particularly at a time when the USA is pivoting away from the Middle East towards the perceived increasing threat in Asia.

Senate and Congress have overridden President Obama's veto on the Justice Against Sponsors of Terrorism (JASTA) legislation, designed to allow families of victims of terror attacks on US soil to sue any member of foreign governments (specifically the Saudi government) for support of these acts.The stripping of sovereign immunity will have profound implications for global geopolitics and the increasingly strained relationship of Gulf states and their traditional Western allies, particularly at a time when the USA is pivoting away from the Middle East towards the perceived increasing threat in Asia.

<ul><li>Asian economies are more likely to be resilient to the Fed’s rate increases if global demand is growing. Indeed, in light of a brighter trade outlook, the Fed could intensify the pace of rate hikes.</li><li>World trade remains in the doldrums but there are very early signs that US import demand is picking up and forward-looking indicators reflect a nascent uptick in the works.</li><li>Our take is that the world economy is finally coming out of a dark period of successive major shocks. What we are probably seeing is the natural healing process that occurs in economies as the worst effects of these shocks wears off. This is forming a base for a more resilient recovery around the world – so long as there are no more new shocks.</li></ul>

Asian economies are more likely to be resilient to the Fed’s rate increases if global demand is growing. Indeed, in light of a brighter trade outlook, the Fed could intensify the pace of rate hikes.World trade remains in the doldrums but there are very early signs that US import demand is picking up and forward-looking indicators reflect a nascent uptick in the works.Our take is that the world economy is finally coming out of a dark period of successive major shocks. What we are probably seeing is the natural healing process that occurs in economies as the worst effects of these shocks wears off. This is forming a base for a more resilient recovery around the world – so long as there are no more new shocks.

Looking Beyond the Fed: Is Demand for Asian Exports Picking Up?

United States

iShares MSCI Malaysia ETF is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA. The ETF's objective seeks to provide investment results that correspond to the performance of the Malaysian market, as measured by the MSCI  Malaysia Index. The ETF invests in a representative sample of index stocks using a  "portfolio sampling" technique.

iShares MSCI Malaysia ETF (EWM US)

Global Competitiveness Index 2016: Winners and Losers in Asia

India is surging in global competitiveness, gaining 16 positions in the rankings - the largest gain of any country ever. Backed by expanding...

Manu Bhaskaran

Malaysia's 2017 Budget

Prime Minister Najib Razak announced the 2017 Budget on Friday, in which he appears to have struck the right balance between maintaining fiscal...

Manu Bhaskaran

Fiscal Reality Will Either Cut GDP Growth or Cause the Deficit to Balloon

The Budget for 2017 contained a set of utterly unrealistic revenue and deficit projections, that are blithely oblivious to the sharp deterioration...

Prasenjit K. Basu

JASTA Will Push Saudi East

Senate and Congress have overridden President Obama's veto on the Justice Against Sponsors of Terrorism (JASTA) legislation, designed to allow...

Emad Mostaque

Looking Beyond the Fed: Is Demand for Asian Exports Picking Up?

Asian economies are more likely to be resilient to the Fed’s rate increases if global demand is growing. Indeed, in light of a brighter trade...

Manu Bhaskaran