Asia Economic Research, Centennial Asia Advisors

Asees Bajaj

Asia Economic Research

Centennial Asia Advisors

At Centennial Asia Advisors, we tell it like it is. We have no vested interests, no need for a China wall, and no reason to skew our outlook any other way. With over 30 years experience covering Asia’s political economy, you can be sure our conclusions and analyses are based on the unadulterated facts. Through years of fine-tuning our research methodologies, we deliver a quality of macroeconomic analysis few other houses can match.

Centennial Asia Advisors is an independent research and advisory firm that works with governments, multilateral institutions, financial firms and leading MNCs.

Economic Policy and Strategic Advisors

Macroeconomics

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President Duterte’s satisfaction ratings slip: SWS’s latest survey shows Duterte’s net satisfaction rating at +64 or “very good”, a drop from the earlier survey’s score of +79 or “excellent”.</li>
<li>Duterte retains excellent support in his home-base of Mindanao, but his ratings fell to “very good” in the Visayas, Metro Manila and Luzon from the earlier “excellent” ratings across the regions. However, Duterte fared slightly better in rural areas (+67) as compared to urban areas (+63), a reversal from the…</li>
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President Duterte’s satisfaction ratings slip: SWS’s latest survey shows Duterte’s net satisfaction rating at +64 or “very good”, a drop from the earlier survey’s score of +79 or “excellent”.
Duterte retains excellent support in his home-base of Mindanao, but his ratings fell to “very good” in the Visayas, Metro Manila and Luzon from the earlier “excellent” ratings across the regions. However, Duterte fared slightly better in rural areas (+67) as compared to urban areas (+63), a reversal from the…


Philippines: President's Ratings Slip Could Prompt Change in Approach

Asia Economist and CEO, Centennial Asia Advisors

Manu Bhaskaran

Asia Economist and CEO

<ul><li>Less than 100 days into his Presidency, Duterte's rhetoric on drugs and foreign policy has garnered unfavourable attention. His methods leave much to be desired on a diplomatic and humanitarian level, but a closer look at the overall picture of his presidency thus far tells a different story - one that could positively transform the Philippines.</li><li>Policy foundations are being formulated for a durable acceleration in economic growth. Having inherited ample fiscal space, structural issues on multiple fronts will be tackled - especially in infrastructure.</li><li>The progress over just the last two months is a positive indication of the reformation momentum we can expect over the course of Duterte's presidency. But still, a lot more needs to be done to address Philippines' deep-rooted structural weaknesses which emanate primarily from infrastructure shortfalls and foreign investment restrictions.</li></ul>

Less than 100 days into his Presidency, Duterte's rhetoric on drugs and foreign policy has garnered unfavourable attention. His methods leave much to be desired on a diplomatic and humanitarian level, but a closer look at the overall picture of his presidency thus far tells a different story - one that could positively transform the Philippines.Policy foundations are being formulated for a durable acceleration in economic growth. Having inherited ample fiscal space, structural issues on multiple fronts will be tackled - especially in infrastructure.The progress over just the last two months is a positive indication of the reformation momentum we can expect over the course of Duterte's presidency. But still, a lot more needs to be done to address Philippines' deep-rooted structural weaknesses which emanate primarily from infrastructure shortfalls and foreign investment restrictions.

The Philippines: Do-Dirty or Do-Good? The Duterte Dilemma

EM PM, Ecstrat

Emad Mostaque

EM PM

Ecstrat

Ecstrat is a consultancy advising on asset allocation between global equity markets, with a focus on the intersection of governments, geopolitics, governance and markets.
 
Over the past few years and more especially since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), investors have become more focused on short-term market movements and real-time returns and have consequently neglected the analysis of the underlying structural themes that underpin longer term performance.
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More specifically we believe that the evolution of governance-based relationships between investors, controlling shareholders, labour and the state is one of the primary determinants of both relative and absolute performance between individual equity markets.
 
We will endeavour to provide investors with some of the context surrounding governance-related issues which encompass many different disciplines including history, economics and political science, as well as the financial metrics which are the most obvious manifestation of the structural characteristics of each market.
 
We will pay particular attention to the shifts and potential inflection points for governance in individual markets as these are often the best lead indicators for both economic and market performance.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Senate and Congress have overridden President Obama's veto on the Justice Against Sponsors of Terrorism (JASTA) legislation, designed to allow families of victims of terror attacks on US soil to sue any member of foreign governments (specifically the Saudi government) for support of these acts.The stripping of sovereign immunity will have profound implications for global geopolitics and the increasingly strained relationship of Gulf states and their traditional Western allies, particularly at a time when the USA is pivoting away from the Middle East towards the perceived increasing threat in Asia.

Senate and Congress have overridden President Obama's veto on the Justice Against Sponsors of Terrorism (JASTA) legislation, designed to allow families of victims of terror attacks on US soil to sue any member of foreign governments (specifically the Saudi government) for support of these acts.The stripping of sovereign immunity will have profound implications for global geopolitics and the increasingly strained relationship of Gulf states and their traditional Western allies, particularly at a time when the USA is pivoting away from the Middle East towards the perceived increasing threat in Asia.

<ul><li>Asian economies are more likely to be resilient to the Fed’s rate increases if global demand is growing. Indeed, in light of a brighter trade outlook, the Fed could intensify the pace of rate hikes.</li><li>World trade remains in the doldrums but there are very early signs that US import demand is picking up and forward-looking indicators reflect a nascent uptick in the works.</li><li>Our take is that the world economy is finally coming out of a dark period of successive major shocks. What we are probably seeing is the natural healing process that occurs in economies as the worst effects of these shocks wears off. This is forming a base for a more resilient recovery around the world – so long as there are no more new shocks.</li></ul>

Asian economies are more likely to be resilient to the Fed’s rate increases if global demand is growing. Indeed, in light of a brighter trade outlook, the Fed could intensify the pace of rate hikes.World trade remains in the doldrums but there are very early signs that US import demand is picking up and forward-looking indicators reflect a nascent uptick in the works.Our take is that the world economy is finally coming out of a dark period of successive major shocks. What we are probably seeing is the natural healing process that occurs in economies as the worst effects of these shocks wears off. This is forming a base for a more resilient recovery around the world – so long as there are no more new shocks.

Looking Beyond the Fed: Is Demand for Asian Exports Picking Up?

As remittances slow, near-term growth prospects dampened<ul><li>
Overseas foreign worker remittances fell4% y/y in Jul 16, down from a 4.8% y/y rise in Jun 16. Between Jan-Jul 16 remittances grew 2.9%, but this is down sharply from 7.4% growth between Jan-Jul 15.</li></ul>Assessment: A key driver of consumption is at risk<ul><li>Currency fluctuations and uncertainty could be causing overseas Filipino workers to hold back on remitting funds home. The weaker growth could also reflect more difficult economic conditions in…</li></ul>

As remittances slow, near-term growth prospects dampened
Overseas foreign worker remittances fell4% y/y in Jul 16, down from a 4.8% y/y rise in Jun 16. Between Jan-Jul 16 remittances grew 2.9%, but this is down sharply from 7.4% growth between Jan-Jul 15.Assessment: A key driver of consumption is at riskCurrency fluctuations and uncertainty could be causing overseas Filipino workers to hold back on remitting funds home. The weaker growth could also reflect more difficult economic conditions in…

Philippines: Duterte a Source of Uncertainty

United States

iShares MSCI Philippines ETF is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA. The ETF seeks to track the performance of the MSCI Philippines Investable Market Index.

iShares MSCI Philippines (EPHE US)

Philippines: President's Ratings Slip Could Prompt Change in Approach

President Duterte’s satisfaction ratings slip: SWS’s latest survey shows Duterte’s net satisfaction rating at +64 or “very good”, a drop from the...

Asees Bajaj

The Philippines: Do-Dirty or Do-Good? The Duterte Dilemma

Less than 100 days into his Presidency, Duterte's rhetoric on drugs and foreign policy has garnered unfavourable attention. His methods leave much...

Manu Bhaskaran

JASTA Will Push Saudi East

Senate and Congress have overridden President Obama's veto on the Justice Against Sponsors of Terrorism (JASTA) legislation, designed to allow...

Emad Mostaque

Looking Beyond the Fed: Is Demand for Asian Exports Picking Up?

Asian economies are more likely to be resilient to the Fed’s rate increases if global demand is growing. Indeed, in light of a brighter trade...

Manu Bhaskaran

Philippines: Duterte a Source of Uncertainty

As remittances slow, near-term growth prospects dampened Overseas foreign worker remittances fell4% y/y in Jul 16, down from a 4.8% y/y rise in Jun...

Manu Bhaskaran