Asia Economist and CEO, Centennial Asia Advisors

Manu Bhaskaran

Asia Economist and CEO

Centennial Asia Advisors

At Centennial Asia Advisors, we tell it like it is. We have no vested interests, no need for a China wall, and no reason to skew our outlook any other way. With over 30 years experience covering Asia’s political economy, you can be sure our conclusions and analyses are based on the unadulterated facts. Through years of fine-tuning our research methodologies, we deliver a quality of macroeconomic analysis few other houses can match.

Centennial Asia Advisors is an independent research and advisory firm that works with governments, multilateral institutions, financial firms and leading MNCs.

Economic Policy and Strategic Advisors

Macroeconomics

Philippines: IS-linked Abu Sayyaf on offensive<ul><li>Conflict in the southern Philippines has escalated. A massive bomb killed 14 and injured 71 people in a market in Davao City, the stronghold of Philippines President Duterte. The Abu Sayyaf Group which has allegiance to the so-called Islamic State (IS) said it was the work of an allied group. Earlier in the week, Abu Sayyaf forces killed 12 Philippines soldiers in an ambush in the lawless region of Sulu.</li></ul>Assessment: Government’s weaknesses shown up<ul><li>The…</li></ul>

Philippines: IS-linked Abu Sayyaf on offensiveConflict in the southern Philippines has escalated. A massive bomb killed 14 and injured 71 people in a market in Davao City, the stronghold of Philippines President Duterte. The Abu Sayyaf Group which has allegiance to the so-called Islamic State (IS) said it was the work of an allied group. Earlier in the week, Abu Sayyaf forces killed 12 Philippines soldiers in an ambush in the lawless region of Sulu.Assessment: Government’s weaknesses shown upThe…

Economist, Centennial Asia Advisors

Jason Tan

Economist

<ul><li>The economy in Thailand continues to firm, supported by tourism and a recovering farm sector. However, fiscal largesse has moderated while exports remain battered.</li><li>The upturn in the Thai economy will likely persist; it will be driven by concerted fiscal spending, higher farm incomes and a clearer political outlook in the near term.</li><li>Political manoeuvres are increasing in the wake of the referendum. There has been more talk of Gen Prayuth Chan-o-cha staying on as unelected Prime Minister to continue leading the country. Prayuth also seems to have garnered the support of the influential Gen Prem Tinsulanonda, for the time being.</li></ul>

The economy in Thailand continues to firm, supported by tourism and a recovering farm sector. However, fiscal largesse has moderated while exports remain battered.The upturn in the Thai economy will likely persist; it will be driven by concerted fiscal spending, higher farm incomes and a clearer political outlook in the near term.Political manoeuvres are increasing in the wake of the referendum. There has been more talk of Gen Prayuth Chan-o-cha staying on as unelected Prime Minister to continue leading the country. Prayuth also seems to have garnered the support of the influential Gen Prem Tinsulanonda, for the time being.

Thailand: Turnaround in Fortunes Should Persist for the Rest of 2016

Asean-focused. Ex-Head of Thai Research

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<table class="table table-striped"><tbody>
<tr>
<td>Stock</td>
<td>Business</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">Shr pr (Bt/sh)</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">Mkt cap (US$ m)</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">PE (x)</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">Yld (%)</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">ROE (%)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>TSTH (Tata Steel)</td>
<td>Steel</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">0.75</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">188</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">18</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">0</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">4.2</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>NMG (Nation Multimedia)</td>
<td>Newspaper</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">1.09</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">130</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">n/a</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">2.7</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">1.3</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>MATI (Matichon)</td>
<td>Newspaper</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">5.9</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">171</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">n/a</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">0</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">-10</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>POST (Bangkok Post)</td>
<td>Newspaper</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">4.5</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">130</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">n/a</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">0</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">-40</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>EPCO (Eastern Printing)</td>
<td>Magazines</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">6.85</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">200</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">18.2</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">1.7</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">18</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>AMARIN</td>
<td>Magazines</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">7.65</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">222</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">n/a</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">0</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">-40</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Average </td>
<td style="text-align: center;">n/a</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">0.7</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">-8.2</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>One day, I was watching the sunset in Chiangmai, and somehow, it inspired me to do a review on sunset industries. Of course, two that really come to mind are steel and print media…



Stock
Business
Shr pr (Bt/sh)
Mkt cap (US$ m)
PE (x)
Yld (%)
ROE (%)


TSTH (Tata Steel)
Steel
0.75
188
18
0
4.2


NMG (Nation Multimedia)
Newspaper
1.09
130
n/a
2.7
1.3


MATI (Matichon)
Newspaper
5.9
171
n/a
0
-10


POST (Bangkok Post)
Newspaper
4.5
130
n/a
0
-40


EPCO (Eastern Printing)
Magazines
6.85
200
18.2
1.7
18


AMARIN
Magazines
7.65
222
n/a
0
-40


Average 
n/a
0.7
-8.2

One day, I was watching the sunset in Chiangmai, and somehow, it inspired me to do a review on sunset industries. Of course, two that really come to mind are steel and print media…

Watching the Sunset in Print Media & Steel

For most parts, Thai anti-trust laws are quite lax, so there are good investing opportunities in certain monopoly stocks such as BTS and Thaicom, as well as those that could become more attractive in the upcoming sell-down of global equities. These include Major and Singapore-listed Thai Beverage. Of course, we don't believe all monopolies are good investments. Some exist in sectors that are fundamentally under pressure, such as oil &amp; gas (PTT and PTTEP) or whose growth outlook may be limited by delays in infrastructure expansion (BAFS and AOT). Nevertheless, it is refreshing to realize that there are so many stocks where investors don't have to worry too much about competition.

For most parts, Thai anti-trust laws are quite lax, so there are good investing opportunities in certain monopoly stocks such as BTS and Thaicom, as well as those that could become more attractive in the upcoming sell-down of global equities. These include Major and Singapore-listed Thai Beverage. Of course, we don't believe all monopolies are good investments. Some exist in sectors that are fundamentally under pressure, such as oil &amp; gas (PTT and PTTEP) or whose growth outlook may be limited by delays in infrastructure expansion (BAFS and AOT). Nevertheless, it is refreshing to realize that there are so many stocks where investors don't have to worry too much about competition.

The Robber Baron's Guide to Thai Investing in Monopolies

APAC Investment Strategy, Animal Spirits Report

Paul M. Kitney, PhD

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Asia Pacific Investment Strategy <ul><li>In the following series of introductory notes, Animal Spirits will outline the investment process and analytical framework we employ to provide context for the regular pieces to follow. </li><li>Animal Spirits is an equity-focused Asia Pacific Investment Strategy report. It harnesses macro, fundamental, and quantitative analysis and selectively incorporates and interprets elements of academic and central bank research where it is helpful to the investment process. Animal Spirits is structured in a long run framework but the investment horizon is tactical, usually in the 3-6 month range.</li><li>We begin with ANIMAL SPIRITS Part 1: Macro Backdrop - Base Jumping the Fed with Oil and Inflation Expectations<ul><li>The dominant paradigm in 2016 has been deflation, fueled by a series of shocks. The energy market has transmitted shocks through to the real economy via the credit market, which is part of the Fed's policy reaction function. Central to Fed decision making is inflation expectations, which are influenced by YOY changes in oil prices.</li><li>The deflation paradigm has been characterized by a generically weak commodities sector, chronic underperformance of emerging market (EM) equities and an impressive outperformance of the US equity market. </li><li>A paradigm shift - or at least a pause in the current deflation regime - is likely underway. This should consist of two consecutive phases:</li></ul></li></ul> 1. EM Goldilocks - APAC EM equities and associated currencies are likely to outperform into 2016 year end, driven by market clearing in the commodities space. The Fed will run "hot" for a while. 2. Fed responds to a possible “inflation surprise” in Q1 2017 with at least one rate hike, reacting to an oil price "base effect" and possibly a stabilization in the liquid energy demand-supply balance, which would exaggerate this effect.A pdf version of this note is attached, including important disclaimersNext in this series is: ANIMAL SPIRITS Part 2: Earnings and Valuation Snapshot

Asia Pacific Investment Strategy In the following series of introductory notes, Animal Spirits will outline the investment process and analytical framework we employ to provide context for the regular pieces to follow. Animal Spirits is an equity-focused Asia Pacific Investment Strategy report. It harnesses macro, fundamental, and quantitative analysis and selectively incorporates and interprets elements of academic and central bank research where it is helpful to the investment process. Animal Spirits is structured in a long run framework but the investment horizon is tactical, usually in the 3-6 month range.We begin with ANIMAL SPIRITS Part 1: Macro Backdrop - Base Jumping the Fed with Oil and Inflation ExpectationsThe dominant paradigm in 2016 has been deflation, fueled by a series of shocks. The energy market has transmitted shocks through to the real economy via the credit market, which is part of the Fed's policy reaction function. Central to Fed decision making is inflation expectations, which are influenced by YOY changes in oil prices.The deflation paradigm has been characterized by a generically weak commodities sector, chronic underperformance of emerging market (EM) equities and an impressive outperformance of the US equity market. A paradigm shift - or at least a pause in the current deflation regime - is likely underway. This should consist of two consecutive phases: 1. EM Goldilocks - APAC EM equities and associated currencies are likely to outperform into 2016 year end, driven by market clearing in the commodities space. The Fed will run "hot" for a while. 2. Fed responds to a possible “inflation surprise” in Q1 2017 with at least one rate hike, reacting to an oil price "base effect" and possibly a stabilization in the liquid energy demand-supply balance, which would exaggerate this effect.A pdf version of this note is attached, including important disclaimersNext in this series is: ANIMAL SPIRITS Part 2: Earnings and Valuation Snapshot 

ANIMAL SPIRITS REPORT 1: Macro Backdrop - Base Jumping the Fed with Oil and Inflation Expectations

Thailand

iShares MSCI Thailand Capped ETF is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA. The ETF seeks investment results that correspond to the performance of the MSCI Thailand IMI 25/50 Index.

iShares MSCI Thailand (THD US)

Terrorism Risks Rise in Southeast Asia

Philippines: IS-linked Abu Sayyaf on offensiveConflict in the southern Philippines has escalated. A massive bomb killed 14 and injured 71 people in...

Manu Bhaskaran

Thailand: Turnaround in Fortunes Should Persist for the Rest of 2016

The economy in Thailand continues to firm, supported by tourism and a recovering farm sector. However, fiscal largesse has moderated while exports...

Jason Tan

Watching the Sunset in Print Media & Steel

One day, I was watching the sunset in Chiangmai, and somehow, it inspired me to do a review on sunset industries. Of course, two that really come...

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

The Robber Baron's Guide to Thai Investing in Monopolies

For most parts, Thai anti-trust laws are quite lax, so there are good investing opportunities in certain monopoly stocks such as BTS and Thaicom,...

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

ANIMAL SPIRITS REPORT 1: Macro Backdrop - Base Jumping the Fed with Oil and Inflation Expectations

Asia Pacific Investment Strategy In the following series of introductory notes, Animal Spirits will outline the investment process and...

Paul M. Kitney, PhD