Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

REAL-Economics.com

Macroeconomics

The 3mma of exports (-5.2% YoY) and imports (-7.1% YoY) declined less in August than in the ytd, signalling mild improvement in the trade situation (although some temporary factors boosted imports). China's exports and imports beat market expectations in August, with exports down a modest 2.8% YoY and imports rising 1.5% YoY (after a decline of 12.5% YoY in July). Given monthly volatility, we think it best to look at export and import growth on a 3-month moving average basis -- and that shows…

The 3mma of exports (-5.2% YoY) and imports (-7.1% YoY) declined less in August than in the ytd, signalling mild improvement in the trade situation (although some temporary factors boosted imports). China's exports and imports beat market expectations in August, with exports down a modest 2.8% YoY and imports rising 1.5% YoY (after a decline of 12.5% YoY in July). Given monthly volatility, we think it best to look at export and import growth on a 3-month moving average basis -- and that shows…

China: Mild Improvement in Trade, but Capital Outflows Accelerate Further

Asean-focused. Ex-Head of Thai Research

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

The Thai market has received its much warranted correction. We believe the next entry point is in the 1400-1420 range for the SET index, and this should happen this week. The correction means we can cherry pick quality stocks without worrying too much about valuations. Our top picks continue to be largely unchanged (AIS, BTS, ERW, TIPCO, and SC), but we also have some second-tier names of interest such as BJCHI, BEC, THCOM, and STEC. We are closely monitoring these stocks at the moment.Sector-wise, we continue to prefer domestic consumption over energy-related names and consider all banks to be value traps. We like several telecom names on their selective merits, not any sectoral theme. Media will continue to face heavy headwinds, and we are now less bullish on property sector as further interest cuts are highly unlikely given the Fed's propensity to hike rates in America. Exports will continue to be a drag on the Thai economy, though there are glimmers of hope in all other areas, ranging from consumption to tourism and investments.

The Thai market has received its much warranted correction. We believe the next entry point is in the 1400-1420 range for the SET index, and this should happen this week. The correction means we can cherry pick quality stocks without worrying too much about valuations. Our top picks continue to be largely unchanged (AIS, BTS, ERW, TIPCO, and SC), but we also have some second-tier names of interest such as BJCHI, BEC, THCOM, and STEC. We are closely monitoring these stocks at the moment.Sector-wise, we continue to prefer domestic consumption over energy-related names and consider all banks to be value traps. We like several telecom names on their selective merits, not any sectoral theme. Media will continue to face heavy headwinds, and we are now less bullish on property sector as further interest cuts are highly unlikely given the Fed's propensity to hike rates in America. Exports will continue to be a drag on the Thai economy, though there are glimmers of hope in all other areas, ranging from consumption to tourism and investments.

Thai Market Strategy Update: The Second Wind

Asia Economist and CEO, Centennial Asia Advisors

Manu Bhaskaran

Asia Economist and CEO

Centennial Asia Advisors

At Centennial Asia Advisors, we tell it like it is. We have no vested interests, no need for a China wall, and no reason to skew our outlook any other way. With over 30 years experience covering Asia’s political economy, you can be sure our conclusions and analyses are based on the unadulterated facts. Through years of fine-tuning our research methodologies, we deliver a quality of macroeconomic analysis few other houses can match.

Centennial Asia Advisors is an independent research and advisory firm that works with governments, multilateral institutions, financial firms and leading MNCs.

Economic Policy and Strategic Advisors

Philippines: IS-linked Abu Sayyaf on offensive<ul><li>Conflict in the southern Philippines has escalated. A massive bomb killed 14 and injured 71 people in a market in Davao City, the stronghold of Philippines President Duterte. The Abu Sayyaf Group which has allegiance to the so-called Islamic State (IS) said it was the work of an allied group. Earlier in the week, Abu Sayyaf forces killed 12 Philippines soldiers in an ambush in the lawless region of Sulu.</li></ul>Assessment: Government’s weaknesses shown up<ul><li>The…</li></ul>

Philippines: IS-linked Abu Sayyaf on offensiveConflict in the southern Philippines has escalated. A massive bomb killed 14 and injured 71 people in a market in Davao City, the stronghold of Philippines President Duterte. The Abu Sayyaf Group which has allegiance to the so-called Islamic State (IS) said it was the work of an allied group. Earlier in the week, Abu Sayyaf forces killed 12 Philippines soldiers in an ambush in the lawless region of Sulu.Assessment: Government’s weaknesses shown upThe…

Economist, Centennial Asia Advisors

Jason Tan

Economist

<ul><li>The economy in Thailand continues to firm, supported by tourism and a recovering farm sector. However, fiscal largesse has moderated while exports remain battered.</li><li>The upturn in the Thai economy will likely persist; it will be driven by concerted fiscal spending, higher farm incomes and a clearer political outlook in the near term.</li><li>Political manoeuvres are increasing in the wake of the referendum. There has been more talk of Gen Prayuth Chan-o-cha staying on as unelected Prime Minister to continue leading the country. Prayuth also seems to have garnered the support of the influential Gen Prem Tinsulanonda, for the time being.</li></ul>

The economy in Thailand continues to firm, supported by tourism and a recovering farm sector. However, fiscal largesse has moderated while exports remain battered.The upturn in the Thai economy will likely persist; it will be driven by concerted fiscal spending, higher farm incomes and a clearer political outlook in the near term.Political manoeuvres are increasing in the wake of the referendum. There has been more talk of Gen Prayuth Chan-o-cha staying on as unelected Prime Minister to continue leading the country. Prayuth also seems to have garnered the support of the influential Gen Prem Tinsulanonda, for the time being.

Thailand: Turnaround in Fortunes Should Persist for the Rest of 2016

<table class="table table-striped"><tbody>
<tr>
<td>Stock</td>
<td>Business</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">Shr pr (Bt/sh)</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">Mkt cap (US$ m)</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">PE (x)</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">Yld (%)</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">ROE (%)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>TSTH (Tata Steel)</td>
<td>Steel</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">0.75</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">188</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">18</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">0</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">4.2</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>NMG (Nation Multimedia)</td>
<td>Newspaper</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">1.09</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">130</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">n/a</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">2.7</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">1.3</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>MATI (Matichon)</td>
<td>Newspaper</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">5.9</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">171</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">n/a</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">0</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">-10</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>POST (Bangkok Post)</td>
<td>Newspaper</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">4.5</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">130</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">n/a</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">0</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">-40</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>EPCO (Eastern Printing)</td>
<td>Magazines</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">6.85</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">200</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">18.2</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">1.7</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">18</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>AMARIN</td>
<td>Magazines</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">7.65</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">222</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">n/a</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">0</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">-40</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Average </td>
<td style="text-align: center;">n/a</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">0.7</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">-8.2</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>One day, I was watching the sunset in Chiangmai, and somehow, it inspired me to do a review on sunset industries. Of course, two that really come to mind are steel and print media…



Stock
Business
Shr pr (Bt/sh)
Mkt cap (US$ m)
PE (x)
Yld (%)
ROE (%)


TSTH (Tata Steel)
Steel
0.75
188
18
0
4.2


NMG (Nation Multimedia)
Newspaper
1.09
130
n/a
2.7
1.3


MATI (Matichon)
Newspaper
5.9
171
n/a
0
-10


POST (Bangkok Post)
Newspaper
4.5
130
n/a
0
-40


EPCO (Eastern Printing)
Magazines
6.85
200
18.2
1.7
18


AMARIN
Magazines
7.65
222
n/a
0
-40


Average 
n/a
0.7
-8.2

One day, I was watching the sunset in Chiangmai, and somehow, it inspired me to do a review on sunset industries. Of course, two that really come to mind are steel and print media…

Watching the Sunset in Print Media & Steel

Thailand

iShares MSCI Thailand Capped ETF is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA. The ETF seeks investment results that correspond to the performance of the MSCI Thailand IMI 25/50 Index.

iShares MSCI Thailand (THD US)

China: Mild Improvement in Trade, but Capital Outflows Accelerate Further

The 3mma of exports (-5.2% YoY) and imports (-7.1% YoY) declined less in August than in the ytd, signalling mild improvement in the trade situation...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Thai Market Strategy Update: The Second Wind

The Thai market has received its much warranted correction. We believe the next entry point is in the 1400-1420 range for the SET index, and this...

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

Terrorism Risks Rise in Southeast Asia

Philippines: IS-linked Abu Sayyaf on offensiveConflict in the southern Philippines has escalated. A massive bomb killed 14 and injured 71 people in...

Manu Bhaskaran

Thailand: Turnaround in Fortunes Should Persist for the Rest of 2016

The economy in Thailand continues to firm, supported by tourism and a recovering farm sector. However, fiscal largesse has moderated while exports...

Jason Tan

Watching the Sunset in Print Media & Steel

One day, I was watching the sunset in Chiangmai, and somehow, it inspired me to do a review on sunset industries. Of course, two that really come...

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA