Asean-focused. Ex-Head of Thai Research

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

This is the first of our 4-part (initially) series on financial services and related themes, such as interest rates. In the subsequent installments, we discuss: 1) Thai banks under regulatory headwinds (PromptPay &amp; deposit guarantee removals); 2) investment banks, brokers, and non-bank financiers in an age of declining fees and low interest; and 3) insurance stocks, using some of the things we read about from this uber-expensive book by McKinsey. We hope you enjoy this new series by the MCorp…

This is the first of our 4-part (initially) series on financial services and related themes, such as interest rates. In the subsequent installments, we discuss: 1) Thai banks under regulatory headwinds (PromptPay &amp; deposit guarantee removals); 2) investment banks, brokers, and non-bank financiers in an age of declining fees and low interest; and 3) insurance stocks, using some of the things we read about from this uber-expensive book by McKinsey. We hope you enjoy this new series by the MCorp…

Sathorn Series 1: The Case Against Rate Cuts

Founder, Riedel Research

David Riedel

Founder

Independent equity research on GEM Markets

Riedel Research

Riedel provides equity research and analysis to leading financial organizations. By becoming members of a region (Asia, Latin America, Emerging Europe or Global), organizations have access to an integrated set of services including:

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Customized company reports and unlimited on-line access to the program's services.

Riedel provides research coverage of companies across the full range of market capitalization. Experienced research professionals in each market develop company reports and analysis as well as earnings models and projections. Ratings are Buy, Hold and Sell with a focus on compelling investment ideas - both long and short. Downloadable, dynamic earnings models are built to facilitate sensitivity analysis.

Please feel free to contact us for complimentary access to our written research.  We want to show you that our unique research flow can add value and help develop a long-term, high value-add relationship.

Riedel's model focuses on providing clients with unique insights and consulting in addition to unlimited access to all produced research This model allows members to receive exponential benefits for their retainer fees.

In this month's analysis of the RRG Global Consumer Sentiment Index (GCSI) we focus on:<ol><li class="p1">The recent impact the Brexit has had on the global economy,</li><li class="p1">Why the consensus view (that while the eurozone is proving resilient to the turmoil surrounding the Brexit the UK is already suffering greatly and is set to for further pain) is inconsistent with recent evidence in the GCSI</li><li class="p1">Highlight which markets and sectors globally can be expected to outperform through year end. </li></ol>

In this month's analysis of the RRG Global Consumer Sentiment Index (GCSI) we focus on:The recent impact the Brexit has had on the global economy,Why the consensus view (that while the eurozone is proving resilient to the turmoil surrounding the Brexit the UK is already suffering greatly and is set to for further pain) is inconsistent with recent evidence in the GCSIHighlight which markets and sectors globally can be expected to outperform through year end. 

Why the Consensus Is Wrong on The UK - Strategy Through Year End

Asia Economist and CEO, Centennial Asia Advisors

Manu Bhaskaran

Asia Economist and CEO

Centennial Asia Advisors

At Centennial Asia Advisors, we tell it like it is. We have no vested interests, no need for a China wall, and no reason to skew our outlook any other way. With over 30 years experience covering Asia’s political economy, you can be sure our conclusions and analyses are based on the unadulterated facts. Through years of fine-tuning our research methodologies, we deliver a quality of macroeconomic analysis few other houses can match.

Centennial Asia Advisors is an independent research and advisory firm that works with governments, multilateral institutions, financial firms and leading MNCs.

Economic Policy and Strategic Advisors

Macroeconomics

The bomb attacks that killed at least 4 people and hurting 34 others late last week represent a significant increase in political risk. <ul><li>Note, first, the geographic reach: The fact that terrorism has now gone beyond its previous concentration in the deep south must worry Thailand’s security chiefs. Hua Hin, a tourist resort just a short distance away from Bangkok and the place where the King spends most of his time was hit. There were also bomb blasts in other tourist spots such as Phuket and…</li></ul>

The bomb attacks that killed at least 4 people and hurting 34 others late last week represent a significant increase in political risk. Note, first, the geographic reach: The fact that terrorism has now gone beyond its previous concentration in the deep south must worry Thailand’s security chiefs. Hua Hin, a tourist resort just a short distance away from Bangkok and the place where the King spends most of his time was hit. There were also bomb blasts in other tourist spots such as Phuket and…

Thailand: Significant Rise in Political Risk

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

Chartonics FX webcast Sunday 14 August 2016 Trade pointsTo view click on this link: <a href="http://www.screencast.com/t/mdn546JX" target="_blank" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&amp;q=http://www.screencast.com/t/mdn546JX&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1471215924139000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGSANYz4Evr_EpTf9P4rqByO_bZtA">http://www.screencast.com/t/mdn546JX</a> 9:58 min.<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/011/678/original/CPG%20FRONT%20COVER.png?1471130905" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="11678"><figcaption class="figcaption">FX webcast</figcaption></figure> DXY backing off of 96.50 resistance is finding early USD bid support near the 95 zone. Pullback support at 94.50 but we see support on any spike below 95 followed by renewed USD strength for a fresh test on 96.50. Rising pattern implies a MT rise to 98.50 barring a break below 94.40 (would induce a weaker USD). Macro support remains at 92. We see positive…

Chartonics FX webcast Sunday 14 August 2016 Trade pointsTo view click on this link: http://www.screencast.com/t/mdn546JX 9:58 min.FX webcast DXY backing off of 96.50 resistance is finding early USD bid support near the 95 zone. Pullback support at 94.50 but we see support on any spike below 95 followed by renewed USD strength for a fresh test on 96.50. Rising pattern implies a MT rise to 98.50 barring a break below 94.40 (would induce a weaker USD). Macro support remains at 92. We see positive…

The recent passing of the new constitution by national referendum means Thailand's general elections in September 2017 has been ensured, along with the likely victory of the pro-Thaksin faction. Thaksinomic tends to favor domestic consumer plays over export-oriented stocks or infrastructure themes. Companies founded by Thaksin, such as AIS and Thaicom, and upcountry stocks, such as CP All, Robinsons, and Siam Global, should all do well under Thaksin's sister (a different one this time), but we would not recommend touching rubber stocks, consumer banking, or Thai Airways (a company that has always jinxed it under successive pro-Thaksin regimes).

The recent passing of the new constitution by national referendum means Thailand's general elections in September 2017 has been ensured, along with the likely victory of the pro-Thaksin faction. Thaksinomic tends to favor domestic consumer plays over export-oriented stocks or infrastructure themes. Companies founded by Thaksin, such as AIS and Thaicom, and upcountry stocks, such as CP All, Robinsons, and Siam Global, should all do well under Thaksin's sister (a different one this time), but we would not recommend touching rubber stocks, consumer banking, or Thai Airways (a company that has always jinxed it under successive pro-Thaksin regimes).

Election Year 2017: Return to Thaksinomics

Thailand

iShares MSCI Thailand Capped ETF is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA. The ETF seeks investment results that correspond to the performance of the MSCI Thailand IMI 25/50 Index.

iShares MSCI Thailand (THD US)

Sathorn Series 1: The Case Against Rate Cuts

This is the first of our 4-part (initially) series on financial services and related themes, such as interest rates. In the subsequent...

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

Why the Consensus Is Wrong on The UK - Strategy Through Year End

In this month's analysis of the RRG Global Consumer Sentiment Index (GCSI) we focus on: The recent impact the Brexit has had on the global...

David Riedel

Thailand: Significant Rise in Political Risk

The bomb attacks that killed at least 4 people and hurting 34 others late last week represent a significant increase in political risk. Note,...

Manu Bhaskaran

FX Position Trades

Chartonics FX webcast Sunday 14 August 2016 Trade pointsTo view click on this link: http://www.screencast.com/t/mdn546JX 9:58 min. DXY backing off...

Thomas Schroeder

Election Year 2017: Return to Thaksinomics

The recent passing of the new constitution by national referendum means Thailand's general elections in September 2017 has been ensured, along with...

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA