Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist, Trudence Capital Advisors

Pranav Bhavsar

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist

Trudence Capital Advisors

Trudence Capital Advisors Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst, holding SEBI registration number INH000015747. Our firm is dedicated to providing independent and unbiased research on Indian mid to large-cap companies. Trudence Capital is known for its counter-consensus views, with a focus on forensic research and on-ground primary investigations. Our research approach is thorough, involving detailed analysis of accounting practices and governance, alongside extensive channel checks.

Independent & Unbiased Research

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>We analyse markets of South Korea, Vietnam, India, Indonesia, China, Europe, and the US to study extreme dispersion, extracting repeatable, factor-driven signals beyond macro growth narrative.
</li>
<li>Across these markets, returns were driven by earnings inflection, ROE improvement, and cash-flow recovery; stability, defensiveness, and high quality without momentum underperformed.</li>
<li>
Cyclicality and operating leverage outperformed, while revenue growth mattered only when converting into earnings and cash, reinforcing bottom-up capital allocation over GDP-led narratives.</li>
</ul>


We analyse markets of South Korea, Vietnam, India, Indonesia, China, Europe, and the US to study extreme dispersion, extracting repeatable, factor-driven signals beyond macro growth narrative.

Across these markets, returns were driven by earnings inflection, ROE improvement, and cash-flow recovery; stability, defensiveness, and high quality without momentum underperformed.

Cyclicality and operating leverage outperformed, while revenue growth mattered only when converting into earnings and cash, reinforcing bottom-up capital allocation over GDP-led narratives.


Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist, True Insights

Jeroen Blokland

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist

Build Well-Diversified Multi-Asset Portfolios

True Insights

Our research helps investors build well-diversified multi-asset portfolios and profit from market developments. In addition, our unique and proven Macro – Sentiment – Valuation (MSV) investment framework ensures a consistent flow of new investment opportunities. Together with our market views, these opportunities will be reflected in our live ETF-based Global Multi-Asset Portfolios.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>We increase the weight of Developed Market Equities but remain short/underweight. We lower the weight of gold and cash and remove the marginal overweight in Developed Market Treasuries.</li>
<li>US equities have celebrated the end of more recent Fed tightening cycles and tend to outperform Gold and Commodities when inflation has peaked.</li>
<li>We remain underweight Developed Market Equities because of deteriorating Macro Indicators and earnings expectations that are too optimistic.</li>
</ul>


We increase the weight of Developed Market Equities but remain short/underweight. We lower the weight of gold and cash and remove the marginal overweight in Developed Market Treasuries.
US equities have celebrated the end of more recent Fed tightening cycles and tend to outperform Gold and Commodities when inflation has peaked.
We remain underweight Developed Market Equities because of deteriorating Macro Indicators and earnings expectations that are too optimistic.


Changes in Portfolio Weights: Calibrating the Weight of Nominal and Real Assets.

<ul>
<li>China's reopening is finally showing up in the Macro numbers. But there is still an awful lot of catching up to do.</li>
<li>We look at if the China reopening provides a buying opportunity for Chinese (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ishares-msci-china-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19:1" rel="noopener">iShares MSCI China ETF (MCHI US)</a>) and Emerging Market (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ishares-msci-emerging-markets" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:438:1" rel="noopener">iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM US)</a>)  Equities.</li>
<li>Going through the three pillars of our investment framework, Macro, Sentiment, and Valuation, we conclude that the outlook for EM Equities is slightly more attractive than for DM Equities.</li>
</ul>


China's reopening is finally showing up in the Macro numbers. But there is still an awful lot of catching up to do.
We look at if the China reopening provides a buying opportunity for Chinese (iShares MSCI China ETF (MCHI US)) and Emerging Market (iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM US))  Equities.
Going through the three pillars of our investment framework, Macro, Sentiment, and Valuation, we conclude that the outlook for EM Equities is slightly more attractive than for DM Equities.


From Lockdown to Liftoff? China’s Reopening and the Outlook for Emerging Equities (EEM)

<ul>
<li>There still is an abundance of inflation out there. Eurozone 'Supercore' inflation has not peaked and is now at 6.0%, while US Core PCE stunned markets by accelerating.</li>
<li>The S&amp;P 500 Index <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/spdr-s-p-500-etf-trust" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:763:1" rel="noopener">SPDR S&amp;P 500 (SPY US)</a>  has closed within 1% of the 200-day moving average. Dropping below it, would trigger another sell signal.</li>
<li>The 2-year US Treasury Yield has made news high, but stock market valuation has not followed, providing additional downside for equities. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/yields-up-add-another-10-downside-for-stocks" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:96301" rel="noopener">Yields Up? Add Another 10% Downside for Stocks!</a> </li>
</ul>


There still is an abundance of inflation out there. Eurozone 'Supercore' inflation has not peaked and is now at 6.0%, while US Core PCE stunned markets by accelerating.
The S&amp;P 500 Index SPDR S&amp;P 500 (SPY US)  has closed within 1% of the 200-day moving average. Dropping below it, would trigger another sell signal.
The 2-year US Treasury Yield has made news high, but stock market valuation has not followed, providing additional downside for equities. Yields Up? Add Another 10% Downside for Stocks! 


Weekly Market Monitor Week 8 - Sticky Inflation, Moving Average Anxiety, and the Bond Yield Issue

<ul>
<li>Back in 2020, the yield on global Treasuries was 0.4%, and negative on money market funds. </li>
<li>But the biggest central bank tightening cycle in decades has turned things around completely.</li>
<li>Bonds offer a significantly higher volatility-adjusted yield, but now face fierce competition from money market funds.</li>
</ul>


Back in 2020, the yield on global Treasuries was 0.4%, and negative on money market funds. 
But the biggest central bank tightening cycle in decades has turned things around completely.
Bonds offer a significantly higher volatility-adjusted yield, but now face fierce competition from money market funds.


TINA Has Left, Bond Yields Shine, and Cash Is King!

United States

iShares MSCI World ETF is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA. The ETF seeks to track the performance results of the MSCI World Index.

iShares MSCI World ETF (URTH US)

2025 Learnings | Short the Stagnant

Analysis of across markets showed that earnings inflection, ROE improvement, and cash-flow recovery drove returns, highlighting the importance of...

Pranav Bhavsar

Changes in Portfolio Weights: Calibrating the Weight of Nominal and Real Assets.

We increase the weight of Developed Market Equities but remain short/underweight. We lower the weight of gold, which remains overweight, and cash.

Jeroen Blokland

From Lockdown to Liftoff? China’s Reopening and the Outlook for Emerging Equities (EEM)

Is the China reopening a buying opportunity for Chinese/EM equities? This research note provides you with 20+ charts covering Macro, Sentiment, and...

Jeroen Blokland

Weekly Market Monitor Week 8 - Sticky Inflation, Moving Average Anxiety, and the Bond Yield Issue

Every week, the True Insights Weekly Market Monitor keeps you updated on the biggest developments driving financial markets. Not just good stories...

Jeroen Blokland

TINA Has Left, Bond Yields Shine, and Cash Is King!

Taking a 1000 feet view shows a massive shift in (volatility-adjusted) yields from equities to bonds. But with central banks tightening...

Jeroen Blokland

2025 Learnings | Short the Stagnant

​Analysis of across markets showed that earnings inflection, ROE improvement, and cash-flow recovery drove returns, highlighting the importance of...

Pranav Bhavsar

Changes in Portfolio Weights: Calibrating the Weight of Nominal and Real Assets.

We increase the weight of Developed Market Equities but remain short/underweight. We lower the weight of gold, which remains overweight, and cash.

Jeroen Blokland

From Lockdown to Liftoff? China’s Reopening and the Outlook for Emerging Equities (EEM)

Is the China reopening a buying opportunity for Chinese/EM equities? This research note provides you with 20+ charts covering Macro, Sentiment, and...

Jeroen Blokland

Weekly Market Monitor Week 8 - Sticky Inflation, Moving Average Anxiety, and the Bond Yield Issue

Every week, the True Insights Weekly Market Monitor keeps you updated on the biggest developments driving financial markets. Not just good stories...

Jeroen Blokland

TINA Has Left, Bond Yields Shine, and Cash Is King!

Taking a 1000 feet view shows a massive shift in (volatility-adjusted) yields from equities to bonds. But with central banks tightening...

Jeroen Blokland

Analysis of across markets showed that earnings inflection, ROE improvement, and cash-flow recovery drove returns, highlighting the importance of...