Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>A weekly review of recent events impacting our investment themes</li>
<li>Regulators in seemingly global coordination raise margin requirements for certain commodities </li>
<li>Federal Reserve talks tough but the ingredients for inflation already baked in the cake.</li>
</ul>


A weekly review of recent events impacting our investment themes
Regulators in seemingly global coordination raise margin requirements for certain commodities 
Federal Reserve talks tough but the ingredients for inflation already baked in the cake.


Overview #5 – Overheated Commodities Get Some of the Steam Taken Out of Them

<ul>
<li>A weekly review of recent events impacting our investment themes</li>
<li>Changing consumer preferences impact the Chinese May day  travel data</li>
<li>Cosnumers in the US and Japan face different issues  with real incomes declining</li>
</ul>


A weekly review of recent events impacting our investment themes
Changing consumer preferences impact the Chinese May day  travel data
Cosnumers in the US and Japan face different issues  with real incomes declining


Overview #4 - Analysis of Chinese Travel Data Is on the Wrong Path.

Steno Research

Elias Lisberg Glistrup

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Our early conviction in pro-cyclical trends keeps getting confirmed.</li><li>Initially, our nowcast indicator for China signaled a positive outlook, and most notably this week, the Li Keqiang Index has experienced its strongest monthly surge since 1999.</li><li>Consequently, Asian currencies and the AUD still appear undervalued when compared to the early yet unfolding expansion outside the US.</li></ul>

Our early conviction in pro-cyclical trends keeps getting confirmed.Initially, our nowcast indicator for China signaled a positive outlook, and most notably this week, the Li Keqiang Index has experienced its strongest monthly surge since 1999.Consequently, Asian currencies and the AUD still appear undervalued when compared to the early yet unfolding expansion outside the US.

Portfolio Watch: Data green-lighting continued rally – cautious metals however

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

<ul><li>Finally some action from the BoJ earlier today with a 10 bps hike, in line with market expectations after it was rumored that they would tweak policy last week.</li><li>The BoJ has, with barely no exceptions, leaked all their policy moves to the press before actually moving the needle, and dynamics post the meeting is nothing less than a classic “buy the rumor sell the news”.</li><li>It looks like markets had hoped for some clarity on the path for the policy rate, which they weren’t given this morning (more on the BoJ meeting here).</li></ul>

Finally some action from the BoJ earlier today with a 10 bps hike, in line with market expectations after it was rumored that they would tweak policy last week.The BoJ has, with barely no exceptions, leaked all their policy moves to the press before actually moving the needle, and dynamics post the meeting is nothing less than a classic “buy the rumor sell the news”.It looks like markets had hoped for some clarity on the path for the policy rate, which they weren’t given this morning (more on the BoJ meeting here).

Positioning Watch – Commodities are back on, and so are cyclical equities

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The number of risk-on signals continues to grow, while risk-off signals remain virtually non-existent. We will be sure to point it out when this dynamic starts to change</li>
<li>In the meantime, we want to continue riding this bull market higher, and our bullish outlook on the S&amp;P 500, Russell 2000, and Nasdaq 100 (since early-November 2023) remains intact.</li>
<li>Gold is breaking out of a 3.5-year base to all-time closing highs -- buy. Silver is breaking out above a 3-month base at $23.50. Fueled by toppy DXY and rates</li>
</ul>


The number of risk-on signals continues to grow, while risk-off signals remain virtually non-existent. We will be sure to point it out when this dynamic starts to change
In the meantime, we want to continue riding this bull market higher, and our bullish outlook on the S&amp;P 500, Russell 2000, and Nasdaq 100 (since early-November 2023) remains intact.
Gold is breaking out of a 3.5-year base to all-time closing highs -- buy. Silver is breaking out above a 3-month base at $23.50. Fueled by toppy DXY and rates


Gold Breaking Out Above 3.5-Year Resistance as the U.S. Dollar (DXY) And Treasury Yields Roll Over

United States

iShares Silver Trust is a trust formed to invest in silver. The assets of the trust consist primarily of silver held by the custodian on behalf of the trust. The objective of the trust is for the shares to reflect the price of silver owned by the trust, less the trust's expenses and liabilities.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
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Dividend (Yield)	0.00

iShares Silver Trust (SLV US)

Overview #5 – Overheated Commodities Get Some of the Steam Taken Out of Them

Global regulators increase margin requirements for certain commodities, while the Federal Reserve belatedly warns of inflation risks.

Rikki Malik

Overview #4 - Analysis of Chinese Travel Data Is on the Wrong Path.

Changing consumer preferences affecting Chinese May Day travel data, while consumers in the US and Japan are dealing with declining real incomes.

Rikki Malik

Portfolio Watch: Data green-lighting continued rally – cautious metals however

Our early conviction in pro-cyclical trends keeps getting confirmed. Initially, our nowcast indicator for China signaled a positive outlook

Steno Research

Positioning Watch – Commodities are back on, and so are cyclical equities

Finally some action from the BoJ earlier today with a 10 bps hike, in line with market expectations after it was rumored that they would tweak...

Steno Research

Gold Breaking Out Above 3.5-Year Resistance as the U.S. Dollar (DXY) And Treasury Yields Roll Over

Gold $GLD $GC_F Breaking Out Above 3.5-Year Resistance as $DXY and Treasury Yields Roll Over $TNX $TYX; Seeing More Risk-On Signals, Not Less....

Vermilion Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Overview #5 – Overheated Commodities Get Some of the Steam Taken Out of Them

​Global regulators increase margin requirements for certain commodities, while the Federal Reserve belatedly warns of inflation risks.

Rikki Malik

Overview #4 - Analysis of Chinese Travel Data Is on the Wrong Path.

Changing consumer preferences affecting Chinese May Day travel data, while consumers in the US and Japan are dealing with declining real incomes.

Rikki Malik

Portfolio Watch: Data green-lighting continued rally – cautious metals however

Our early conviction in pro-cyclical trends keeps getting confirmed. Initially, our nowcast indicator for China signaled a positive outlook

Steno Research

Positioning Watch – Commodities are back on, and so are cyclical equities

Finally some action from the BoJ earlier today with a 10 bps hike, in line with market expectations after it was rumored that they would tweak...

Steno Research

Gold Breaking Out Above 3.5-Year Resistance as the U.S. Dollar (DXY) And Treasury Yields Roll Over

Gold $GLD $GC_F Breaking Out Above 3.5-Year Resistance as $DXY and Treasury Yields Roll Over $TNX $TYX; Seeing More Risk-On Signals, Not Less....

Vermilion Research

Global regulators increase margin requirements for certain commodities, while the Federal Reserve belatedly warns of inflation risks.