Steno Research

Elias Lisberg Glistrup

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>With the turn of the calendar, it’s once again time for our monthly assessment of the current and upcoming macroeconomic circumstances.</li><li>To carry out this evaluation, we utilize two critical tools: our Macro Regime Indicator framework and the interactive Structural Asset Allocation Model.</li><li>These integrated resources enable us to establish a portfolio allocation that is empirically supported, taking into account the prevailing macroeconomic conditions and the driving factors within financial markets.</li></ul>

With the turn of the calendar, it’s once again time for our monthly assessment of the current and upcoming macroeconomic circumstances.To carry out this evaluation, we utilize two critical tools: our Macro Regime Indicator framework and the interactive Structural Asset Allocation Model.These integrated resources enable us to establish a portfolio allocation that is empirically supported, taking into account the prevailing macroeconomic conditions and the driving factors within financial markets.

Macro Regime Indicator: What Technically Rising Liquidity Means for Your Portfolio

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist, True Insights

Jeroen Blokland

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist

Build Well-Diversified Multi-Asset Portfolios

True Insights

Our research helps investors build well-diversified multi-asset portfolios and profit from market developments. In addition, our unique and proven Macro – Sentiment – Valuation (MSV) investment framework ensures a consistent flow of new investment opportunities. Together with our market views, these opportunities will be reflected in our live ETF-based Global Multi-Asset Portfolios.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>The valuation of Global and US Tech stocks is at extreme levels and are, by some metrics, more expansive than during the height of the Dot Com Bubble.</li>
<li>Earnings and sales growth are remarkably comparable to 1998 - April 2000, and investors are extrapolating these growth numbers too far.</li>
<li>On the other hand, the price performance of technology stocks does not resemble the rapid ascent witnessed during the Dot Com period at all. Yet, the downside risks are substantial.</li>
</ul>


The valuation of Global and US Tech stocks is at extreme levels and are, by some metrics, more expansive than during the height of the Dot Com Bubble.
Earnings and sales growth are remarkably comparable to 1998 - April 2000, and investors are extrapolating these growth numbers too far.
On the other hand, the price performance of technology stocks does not resemble the rapid ascent witnessed during the Dot Com period at all. Yet, the downside risks are substantial.


Is This a Valuation Bubble? Comparing the Dot-Com Boom to the AI Hype

<ul>
<li>For the first time in the current melt-up, our Fear &amp; Frenzy Sentiment has touched ‘Frenzy’ territory, suggesting the rally has run its course, at least temporarily.</li>
<li>China has cut rates and is contemplating more stimulus to bolster sectors like real estate and domestic demand. Meanwhile, the economy continues to slow.</li>
<li>In a surprise move, Blackrock has filed for a spot Bitcoin ETF with Coinbase as a custodian!</li>
</ul>


For the first time in the current melt-up, our Fear &amp; Frenzy Sentiment has touched ‘Frenzy’ territory, suggesting the rally has run its course, at least temporarily.
China has cut rates and is contemplating more stimulus to bolster sectors like real estate and domestic demand. Meanwhile, the economy continues to slow.
In a surprise move, Blackrock has filed for a spot Bitcoin ETF with Coinbase as a custodian!


The Weekly Market Monitor (24) – Our Key Sentiment Index Signals Market FRENZY

<ul>
<li>Since 1970, there hasn’t been a single time continuing claims were up as they are today, without a recession attached to it.</li>
<li>After being bearish for nearly the entirety of the past 18 months, US retail investors have capitulated. A strong contrarian signal.</li>
<li>And we look at drawdowns and the distance to the 200-day moving average to find cracks in market sentiment.</li>
</ul>


Since 1970, there hasn’t been a single time continuing claims were up as they are today, without a recession attached to it.
After being bearish for nearly the entirety of the past 18 months, US retail investors have capitulated. A strong contrarian signal.
And we look at drawdowns and the distance to the 200-day moving average to find cracks in market sentiment.


The Weekly Market Monitor (23) - Fighting Sentiment?

<ul>
<li>NVIDIA's recent earnings report confirms the reality and arrival of the AI boom, with projected sales far exceeding estimates.</li>
<li>Commodity prices have dropped, suggesting a high likelihood of a recession in the US.</li>
<li>Market breadth indicates weakness, with AI hype overshadowing other indicators. Big Tech companies' market capitalization has surged, while other stocks have seen declines, raising valuation concerns.</li>
</ul>


NVIDIA's recent earnings report confirms the reality and arrival of the AI boom, with projected sales far exceeding estimates.
Commodity prices have dropped, suggesting a high likelihood of a recession in the US.
Market breadth indicates weakness, with AI hype overshadowing other indicators. Big Tech companies' market capitalization has surged, while other stocks have seen declines, raising valuation concerns.


Weekly Market Monitor - Week 21 - Embracing the AI Boom

United States

iShares U.S. Technology ETF is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA. The Fund's objective seeks investment results that correspond to the performance of the Dow Jones U.S. Technology Capped Index. The Fund will concentrate its investments in the technology sector of the U.S. market to approximately the same extent the Index is so concentrated.

iShares US Technology ETF (IYW US)

Macro Regime Indicator: What Technically Rising Liquidity Means for Your Portfolio

For December, we see rising liquidity due to rallying treasuries and rising SOFR-Fed futures spreads, consequently depleting the ON RRP faster than...

Steno Research

Is This a Valuation Bubble? Comparing the Dot-Com Boom to the AI Hype

Current market valuation is not as extreme as during the Dot Com Bubble. Yet, many metrics reveal that Technology stocks are once again very...

Jeroen Blokland

The Weekly Market Monitor (24) – Our Key Sentiment Index Signals Market FRENZY

Our Fear & Frenzy Sentiment Index is on the verge of entering FRENZY territory, which would be the first time during the latest rally!

Jeroen Blokland

The Weekly Market Monitor (23) - Fighting Sentiment?

US labor market data, US Recession Scoreboard, Eurozone recession, the looming Credit Crunch, market sentiment, momentum, drawdowns, cross-asset...

Jeroen Blokland

Weekly Market Monitor - Week 21 - Embracing the AI Boom

The AI Boom is real but also poses two big challenges for investors. Also real is the likelihood of another credit event now that bond yields are...

Jeroen Blokland