Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

MSCI Emerging Markets Index / Technical Analysis

<p>Today’s report provides a top-down synopsis of the technical condition of emerging markets across the globe, and includes a wide variety of bottom-up recommendations, spanning most sectors and all market capitalizations.</p>

Today’s report provides a top-down synopsis of the technical condition of emerging markets across the globe, and includes a wide variety of bottom-up recommendations, spanning most sectors and all market capitalizations.

Emerging Markets: Technical Strategy & Reccommendations

<p>In today’s report we highlight the follow themes:</p><ul><li>As a whole, Europe continues to lag, but we like the price patterns—mostly multi-year bases. Recent weakness presents a buying opportunity, especially in leading countries, like Germany, and leading Sectors and Groups, such as software stocks. </li><li>Japan recently broke out above a key resistance level, making the current pullback all the more attractive. Add exposure.</li><li>EM remains unchallenged this year from a performance standpoint. While a pullback/pause wouldn’t surprise us, we expect EM to continue to lead, especially in light of the bottom pattern visible in the EM/ACWI ratio.</li><li>Today’s report includes actionable ideas across the developed and EM universe, and across multiple sectors.</li></ul>

In today’s report we highlight the follow themes:As a whole, Europe continues to lag, but we like the price patterns—mostly multi-year bases. Recent weakness presents a buying opportunity, especially in leading countries, like Germany, and leading Sectors and Groups, such as software stocks. Japan recently broke out above a key resistance level, making the current pullback all the more attractive. Add exposure.EM remains unchallenged this year from a performance standpoint. While a pullback/pause wouldn’t surprise us, we expect EM to continue to lead, especially in light of the bottom pattern visible in the EM/ACWI ratio.Today’s report includes actionable ideas across the developed and EM universe, and across multiple sectors.

Global Equity Pullback = Buying Opportunity

Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Itausa holdco trades at a 25% NAV discount, which is more than one standard deviation from the mean; yet we choose to downgrade Itausa to a neutral from a buy</li>
<li>Itaú Unibanco shares, the key contributor to Itausa’s NAV, are trading at a near three-year high PBV ratio; we believe that the bank’s current valuation largely discounts its return potential</li>
<li>We believe that, in turn, the bank’s current premium valuation limits the upside potential for Itausa’s shares; furthermore, the performance of the two shares has decoupled slightly in recent months</li>
</ul>


Itausa holdco trades at a 25% NAV discount, which is more than one standard deviation from the mean; yet we choose to downgrade Itausa to a neutral from a buy
Itaú Unibanco shares, the key contributor to Itausa’s NAV, are trading at a near three-year high PBV ratio; we believe that the bank’s current valuation largely discounts its return potential
We believe that, in turn, the bank’s current premium valuation limits the upside potential for Itausa’s shares; furthermore, the performance of the two shares has decoupled slightly in recent months


Itausa ( ITSA4 BZ): Itaú Unibanco Premium Rating Limits Holding Company Upside

<ul>
<li>Bradesco’s re-rating is supported by credit quality improvements and by its solid insurance operations’ returns; we now estimate that the insurance operations account for close to half of group value</li>
<li>We add small cap Banrisul to our coverage and also to our buy list for its deep value qualities and improving returns, with Banrisul ranking top in our proprietary scorecard</li>
<li>Banco do Brasil remains a neutral, due to heightened political risk and worsening credit quality; holdco Itausa remains an attractive vehicle through which to gain equity exposure to Banco Itaú</li>
</ul>


Bradesco’s re-rating is supported by credit quality improvements and by its solid insurance operations’ returns; we now estimate that the insurance operations account for close to half of group value
We add small cap Banrisul to our coverage and also to our buy list for its deep value qualities and improving returns, with Banrisul ranking top in our proprietary scorecard
Banco do Brasil remains a neutral, due to heightened political risk and worsening credit quality; holdco Itausa remains an attractive vehicle through which to gain equity exposure to Banco Itaú


Brazil Banks – Stick with Bradesco, Adding Small-Cap Banrisul to the Buy List

<ul>
<li>We stay negative on Nubank, even after the recent share correction; our rationale is tough competition, especially in Mexico, and worsening credit quality to remain a key risk in Brazil</li>
<li>We believe that the fundamental outlook for Bradesco should improve further, supported by its strong insurance operations; conservatively, we estimate insurance could account for two thirds of group value</li>
<li>Our neutral on Banco do Brasil is due largely to heightened political risk; holding company Itausa is the best indirect vehicle through which to gain equity exposure in Banco Itaú</li>
</ul>


We stay negative on Nubank, even after the recent share correction; our rationale is tough competition, especially in Mexico, and worsening credit quality to remain a key risk in Brazil
We believe that the fundamental outlook for Bradesco should improve further, supported by its strong insurance operations; conservatively, we estimate insurance could account for two thirds of group value
Our neutral on Banco do Brasil is due largely to heightened political risk; holding company Itausa is the best indirect vehicle through which to gain equity exposure in Banco Itaú


Brazil Banks – Buy Bradesco for Value and Improving Returns, Nubank Is Stretched on Valuations

Brazil

Itaú Unibanco Holding S.A. is a Brazilian multinational financial conglomerate and the largest bank in Latin America by market value. It offers a comprehensive suite of financial products and services, including retail and wholesale banking, investment banking, asset management, and insurance to individual and corporate clients. The company is headquartered in São Paulo, Brazil, and traces its origins to 1924, with the merger of Banco Itaú and Unibanco forming the current entity in 2008.

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Itau Unibanco (ITUB4 BR)

Emerging Markets: Technical Strategy & Reccommendations

Today’s report provides a top-down synopsis of the technical condition of emerging markets across the globe, and includes a wide variety of...

Vermilion Research

Global Equity Pullback = Buying Opportunity

In today’s report we highlight the follow themes: As a whole, Europe continues to lag, but we like the price patterns—mostly multi-year bases....

Vermilion Research

Itausa ( ITSA4 BZ): Itaú Unibanco Premium Rating Limits Holding Company Upside

Despite trading at a 25% NAV discount, Itausa is downgraded to neutral due to Itaú Unibanco's high PBV ratio which largely discounts its return...

Victor Galliano

Brazil Banks – Stick with Bradesco, Adding Small-Cap Banrisul to the Buy List

Bradesco is re-rating due to banking recovery and solid insurance arm, Banrisul added to buys for its deep value, Itausa offers exposure to Banco...

Victor Galliano

Brazil Banks – Buy Bradesco for Value and Improving Returns, Nubank Is Stretched on Valuations

Negative on Nubank due to tough competition and credit risks, bullish on Bradesco with its strong insurance arm, neutral on Banco do Brasil due to...

Victor Galliano

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Emerging Markets: Technical Strategy & Reccommendations

Today’s report provides a top-down synopsis of the technical condition of emerging markets across the globe, and includes a wide variety of...

Vermilion Research

Global Equity Pullback = Buying Opportunity

In today’s report we highlight the follow themes: As a whole, Europe continues to lag, but we like the price patterns—mostly multi-year bases....

Vermilion Research

Itausa ( ITSA4 BZ): Itaú Unibanco Premium Rating Limits Holding Company Upside

​Despite trading at a 25% NAV discount, Itausa is downgraded to neutral due to Itaú Unibanco's high PBV ratio which largely discounts its return...

Victor Galliano

Brazil Banks – Stick with Bradesco, Adding Small-Cap Banrisul to the Buy List

​Bradesco is re-rating due to banking recovery and solid insurance arm, Banrisul added to buys for its deep value, Itausa offers exposure to Banco...

Victor Galliano

Brazil Banks – Buy Bradesco for Value and Improving Returns, Nubank Is Stretched on Valuations

​Negative on Nubank due to tough competition and credit risks, bullish on Bradesco with its strong insurance arm, neutral on Banco do Brasil due to...

Victor Galliano

Despite trading at a 25% NAV discount, Itausa is downgraded to neutral due to Itaú Unibanco's high PBV ratio which largely discounts its return...

Bradesco is re-rating due to banking recovery and solid insurance arm, Banrisul added to buys for its deep value, Itausa offers exposure to Banco...

Negative on Nubank due to tough competition and credit risks, bullish on Bradesco with its strong insurance arm, neutral on Banco do Brasil due to...