Chief Executive Officer, Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Chief Executive Officer

Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Emmer Capital Partners is an Asia Pacific focused financial advisory firm engaging in strategic financial asset allocation advice, bespoke thematic research and advising early-stage companies and connecting them to investors. Emmer Capital provides macro-economic and multi-asset investment strategy inputs to institutions, family offices, private wealth managers, private equity, and corporate boards directly and through independent research platforms. Emmer Capital also advises a wide range of startup companies on fund raising and business strategy. Emmer Capital's active engagement with the print and electronic media reaches a broad spectrum of investors across the globe.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We identified overvalued, over-leveraged, low growth stocks on EPS growth, high PEG, low ROE, high P/BV, high leverage.  Clients opined that EBITDA is more stable earnings parameter for such stocks.</li>
<li>Based on clients’ feedback we now screen the stocks using EBITDA growth as the earnings growth parameter and EV as the corresponding valuation parameter.</li>
<li>Our screen yields 30 stocks - 20 from Japan (largely property/REIT) and 10 from HK/China. 7 stocks are common to the EPS-PE and EBITDA-EV lists - mostly from Japanese property.</li>
</ul>


We identified overvalued, over-leveraged, low growth stocks on EPS growth, high PEG, low ROE, high P/BV, high leverage.  Clients opined that EBITDA is more stable earnings parameter for such stocks.
Based on clients’ feedback we now screen the stocks using EBITDA growth as the earnings growth parameter and EV as the corresponding valuation parameter.
Our screen yields 30 stocks - 20 from Japan (largely property/REIT) and 10 from HK/China. 7 stocks are common to the EPS-PE and EBITDA-EV lists - mostly from Japanese property.


Asian Equities: Overvalued, Over-Leveraged, Low Growth – a Different Look

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

<ul>
<li>Until quite recently, Nagoya had seven department stores but will soon have just four. </li>
<li>This follows Meitetsu’s decision to close its flagship store to clear the way for a major redevelopment of the station area.</li>
<li>The new development will include retail and so bring some competition to Takashimaya, which now dominates department store retailing in the city, but not before 2033.</li>
</ul>


Until quite recently, Nagoya had seven department stores but will soon have just four. 
This follows Meitetsu’s decision to close its flagship store to clear the way for a major redevelopment of the station area.
The new development will include retail and so bring some competition to Takashimaya, which now dominates department store retailing in the city, but not before 2033.


Meitetsu Transport (9077JP) Confirms Closure of Last Department Store

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>That department stores in city centres did well in 2024 won’t be a surprise to anyone given the support from inbound tourists buying luxury goods on a cheap Yen.</li>
<li>But that the sector overall managed to exceed 2019 sales is an achievement given the ongoing contraction in the regions.</li>
<li>The gap is widening further between the best and the rest but the top firms look set to continue increasing profits as they work to add value to existing buildings.</li>
</ul>


That department stores in city centres did well in 2024 won’t be a surprise to anyone given the support from inbound tourists buying luxury goods on a cheap Yen.
But that the sector overall managed to exceed 2019 sales is an achievement given the ongoing contraction in the regions.
The gap is widening further between the best and the rest but the top firms look set to continue increasing profits as they work to add value to existing buildings.


Department Store Sales Higher than Pre-Covid

Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>JPX-Nikkei 400 is composed of common stocks listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. It is a free-float-adjusted capped index composed of 400 constituents.</li>
<li>The annual index review takes place in August every year. We look at the latest rankings of potential ADDs/DELs every month.</li>
<li>Below is a look at the rankings of potential ADDs/DELs for the JPX-Nikkei 400 August 2025 rebalance based on trading data as of end-<em>December</em> 2024.</li>
</ul>


JPX-Nikkei 400 is composed of common stocks listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. It is a free-float-adjusted capped index composed of 400 constituents.
The annual index review takes place in August every year. We look at the latest rankings of potential ADDs/DELs every month.
Below is a look at the rankings of potential ADDs/DELs for the JPX-Nikkei 400 August 2025 rebalance based on trading data as of end-December 2024.


Quiddity JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebal 2025: End-Dec 2024 Ranks

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Today, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/takashimaya-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:370:1" rel="noopener">Takashimaya (8233 JP)</a> reported Q2 earnings, a dividend hike, upward revisions to the FY26 MTMP, and a decent-sized buyback to raise leverage levels and ROE.</li>
<li>The company is yen-sensitive both in overseas retail and domestic department stores on inbound traffic. One could imagine future issues. </li>
<li>The register looks like it is quite open. It is not. That is worth considering now and in future.</li>
</ul>


Today, Takashimaya (8233 JP) reported Q2 earnings, a dividend hike, upward revisions to the FY26 MTMP, and a decent-sized buyback to raise leverage levels and ROE.
The company is yen-sensitive both in overseas retail and domestic department stores on inbound traffic. One could imagine future issues. 
The register looks like it is quite open. It is not. That is worth considering now and in future.


Takashimaya (8233 JP) Decent Earnings, BIG Buyback (Odd Register Dynamics)

Japan

J. FRONT RETAILING CO., Ltd. is a holding company established through the merger of Daimaru and Matsuzakaya.  J. FRONT RETAILING operates department stores and supermarkets. The Company also manages subsidiaries which operate in wholesale businesses.

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J Front Retailing (3086 JP)

Asian Equities: Overvalued, Over-Leveraged, Low Growth – a Different Look

We modify our "stocks to avoid" list using EBITDA as the earnings parameter & EV as the valuation parameter. We screen 30 stocks, mostly from...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Meitetsu Transport (9077JP) Confirms Closure of Last Department Store

Nagoya's department store landscape is changing as Meitetsu closes flagship store for redevelopment, bringing competition to Takashimaya by 2033.

Michael Causton

Department Store Sales Higher than Pre-Covid

City center department stores thrived in 2024 thanks to tourist spending, while the sector as a whole surpassed 2019 sales despite regional...

Michael Causton

Quiddity JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebal 2025: End-Dec 2024 Ranks

The LONGs have outperformed the SHORTs by 3.1% in December 2024. The HIGH and MED potential ADDs could continue to outperform the HIGH and MED...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Takashimaya (8233 JP) Decent Earnings, BIG Buyback (Odd Register Dynamics)

Takashimaya today announced H1 earnings, higher divs, a small upward shift in the MTMP, and a buyback. The trick to the buyback is in the register....

Travis Lundy

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Asian Equities: Overvalued, Over-Leveraged, Low Growth – a Different Look

​We modify our "stocks to avoid" list using EBITDA as the earnings parameter & EV as the valuation parameter. We screen 30 stocks, mostly from...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Meitetsu Transport (9077JP) Confirms Closure of Last Department Store

​Nagoya's department store landscape is changing as Meitetsu closes flagship store for redevelopment, bringing competition to Takashimaya by 2033.

Michael Causton

Department Store Sales Higher than Pre-Covid

​City center department stores thrived in 2024 thanks to tourist spending, while the sector as a whole surpassed 2019 sales despite regional...

Michael Causton

Quiddity JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebal 2025: End-Dec 2024 Ranks

The LONGs have outperformed the SHORTs by 3.1% in December 2024. The HIGH and MED potential ADDs could continue to outperform the HIGH and MED...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Takashimaya (8233 JP) Decent Earnings, BIG Buyback (Odd Register Dynamics)

Takashimaya today announced H1 earnings, higher divs, a small upward shift in the MTMP, and a buyback. The trick to the buyback is in the register....

Travis Lundy

We modify our "stocks to avoid" list using EBITDA as the earnings parameter & EV as the valuation parameter. We screen 30 stocks, mostly from...

Nagoya's department store landscape is changing as Meitetsu closes flagship store for redevelopment, bringing competition to Takashimaya by 2033.

City center department stores thrived in 2024 thanks to tourist spending, while the sector as a whole surpassed 2019 sales despite regional...