Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Industry and company reports show ASP declines gained momentum in April</li>
<li>April volume jumped 36% Y/Y on a weak comp from 2022 (Covid-19 lockdowns)</li>
<li>Our thesis: pricing is getting weaker, and this trend will soon impact margins</li>
</ul>


Industry and company reports show ASP declines gained momentum in April
April volume jumped 36% Y/Y on a weak comp from 2022 (Covid-19 lockdowns)
Our thesis: pricing is getting weaker, and this trend will soon impact margins


Monthly Express Tracker | Prices Continue to Slide | Volume Pops | (May 2023)

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Back on the 28th October, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ane-cayman-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35025:1" rel="noopener">ANE Cayman (9956 HK)</a>, a road freight transportation play, announced an Offer from Centurium Partners, a pre-IPO investor, Temasek, and Singapore-based asset manager True Light. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2025/1217/2025121701246.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Scheme Doc is now out</a>, with a Scheme Meeting on the 9th Jan 2026, and expected payment on the 16th Feb. The IFA (Anglo Chinese) says "fair &amp; reasonable".</li>
<li>Noticeably absent from this Doc is CDH, believed to be in control of ~18% of shares out.  Given precedents with similar fact patterns, this is probably one deal to avoid. </li>
</ul>


Back on the 28th October, ANE Cayman (9956 HK), a road freight transportation play, announced an Offer from Centurium Partners, a pre-IPO investor, Temasek, and Singapore-based asset manager True Light. 

The Scheme Doc is now out, with a Scheme Meeting on the 9th Jan 2026, and expected payment on the 16th Feb. The IFA (Anglo Chinese) says "fair &amp; reasonable".
Noticeably absent from this Doc is CDH, believed to be in control of ~18% of shares out.  Given precedents with similar fact patterns, this is probably one deal to avoid. 


ANE Cayman (9956 HK): Shareholder Vote On 9th Jan. No Mention Of CDH In Latest Doc

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ane-cayman-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35025:1" rel="noopener">ANE Cayman Inc (9956 HK)</a>’s IFA opines that the consortium’s offer of cash (HK$12.18 per share) or scrip is fair and reasonable. The vote is on 9 January. </li>
<li>The consortium's decision on 4 December not to raise the share alternative cap from 5.00% to 7.50% of outstanding shares is a red flag, casting doubt on the vote's success. </li>
<li>The lack of irrevocables from Mr Wang Yongjun and CDH adds to the uncertainty. Therefore, caution is warranted due to an unfavourable risk/reward profile. </li>
</ul>



ANE Cayman Inc (9956 HK)’s IFA opines that the consortium’s offer of cash (HK$12.18 per share) or scrip is fair and reasonable. The vote is on 9 January. 
The consortium's decision on 4 December not to raise the share alternative cap from 5.00% to 7.50% of outstanding shares is a red flag, casting doubt on the vote's success. 
The lack of irrevocables from Mr Wang Yongjun and CDH adds to the uncertainty. Therefore, caution is warranted due to an unfavourable risk/reward profile. 


ANE (9956 HK): Uncertainty Ahead of the Scheme Vote on 9 January

<ul>
<li>H224 showed moderating top-line growth, but solid Y/Y improvement in EBITDA margin</li>
<li>However, the levers that drove margin improvement in 2024 appear to be losing power</li>
<li>Within China's express and logistics segment, we find SF Holding to be far more attractive</li>
</ul>


H224 showed moderating top-line growth, but solid Y/Y improvement in EBITDA margin
However, the levers that drove margin improvement in 2024 appear to be losing power
Within China's express and logistics segment, we find SF Holding to be far more attractive


J&T Global Express H224 Results: Levers That Drove Earlier Improvement Are Losing Power

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/j-t-global-express-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36819:1" rel="noopener">J&amp;T Global Express (1519 HK)</a> listed in October 2023 and was added to one global index in June 2024 and to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">HSCEI INDEX</a> in September 2024.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/j-t-global-express-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36819:1" rel="noopener">J&amp;T Global Express (1519 HK)</a> could be added to a global index in February and there will be a big passive buying impact. The company is also buying back stock.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/j-t-global-express-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36819:1" rel="noopener">J&amp;T Global Express (1519 HK)</a> has underperformed its peers over the past year and the index inclusion could help in closing some of that gap.</li>
</ul>



J&amp;T Global Express (1519 HK) listed in October 2023 and was added to one global index in June 2024 and to the HSCEI INDEX in September 2024.

J&amp;T Global Express (1519 HK) could be added to a global index in February and there will be a big passive buying impact. The company is also buying back stock.

J&amp;T Global Express (1519 HK) has underperformed its peers over the past year and the index inclusion could help in closing some of that gap.


J&T Global Express (1519 HK): Global Index Inclusion Coming Up

Hong Kong

J&T Global Express Limited operates as a global logistics service provider. The Company offers road express delivery, air express transportation, supply chain warehousing, and other value added services. J&T Global Express conducts business in China, Philippines, Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam, and other countries.

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J&T Global Express (1519 HK)

Monthly Express Tracker | Prices Continue to Slide | Volume Pops | (May 2023)

In April, express volume shot up 36% against easy Y/Y comps, but ASPs deepened their recent decline. We believe pricing will continue to...

Tracking Traffic

ANE Cayman (9956 HK): Shareholder Vote On 9th Jan. No Mention Of CDH In Latest Doc

Surprising absence of CDH in this latest Doc. Given the ongoing ambiguity as to who owns/controls what, I'm inclined to sit this one out - for now....

David Blennerhassett

ANE (9956 HK): Uncertainty Ahead of the Scheme Vote on 9 January

The decision not to raise the share cap and the lack of irrevocables from shareholders with blocking stakes cast doubt on the vote's success. A...

Arun George

J&T Global Express H224 Results: Levers That Drove Earlier Improvement Are Losing Power

J&T Global's H224 earnings appear solid on the surface, but a closer look reveals that drivers of the company's improved profitability in recent...

Tracking Traffic

J&T Global Express (1519 HK): Global Index Inclusion Coming Up

J&T Global Express could be added to a global index in Feb and passive trackers will need to buy between 14-31x ADV. The stock has underperformed...

Brian Freitas

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