IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ane-cayman-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35025:1" rel="noopener">ANE Cayman Inc (9956 HK)</a>’s IFA opines that the consortium’s offer of cash (HK$12.18 per share) or scrip is fair and reasonable. The vote is on 9 January. </li>
<li>The consortium's decision on 4 December not to raise the share alternative cap from 5.00% to 7.50% of outstanding shares is a red flag, casting doubt on the vote's success. </li>
<li>The lack of irrevocables from Mr Wang Yongjun and CDH adds to the uncertainty. Therefore, caution is warranted due to an unfavourable risk/reward profile. </li>
</ul>



ANE Cayman Inc (9956 HK)’s IFA opines that the consortium’s offer of cash (HK$12.18 per share) or scrip is fair and reasonable. The vote is on 9 January. 
The consortium's decision on 4 December not to raise the share alternative cap from 5.00% to 7.50% of outstanding shares is a red flag, casting doubt on the vote's success. 
The lack of irrevocables from Mr Wang Yongjun and CDH adds to the uncertainty. Therefore, caution is warranted due to an unfavourable risk/reward profile. 


ANE (9956 HK): Uncertainty Ahead of the Scheme Vote on 9 January

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>J&amp;T reported strong operating data in 1Q25, with parcel volume growing at an average of 31%.</li><li>During the analyst briefing, J&amp;T was confident that it would achieve the volume and cost reduction target this year.</li><li>That said, we reset our earnings forecast in 2025E/26E by -48%/-18%, as we are concerned that the fierce price cut launched by the leading player in China will more than offset the high volume growth.</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

J&amp;T reported strong operating data in 1Q25, with parcel volume growing at an average of 31%.During the analyst briefing, J&amp;T was confident that it would achieve the volume and cost reduction target this year.That said, we reset our earnings forecast in 2025E/26E by -48%/-18%, as we are concerned that the fierce price cut launched by the leading player in China will more than offset the high volume growth.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

J&T Express (1519 HK) - Impressive Volume Growth in 1Q25

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

<ul>
<li>H224 showed moderating top-line growth, but solid Y/Y improvement in EBITDA margin</li>
<li>However, the levers that drove margin improvement in 2024 appear to be losing power</li>
<li>Within China's express and logistics segment, we find SF Holding to be far more attractive</li>
</ul>


H224 showed moderating top-line growth, but solid Y/Y improvement in EBITDA margin
However, the levers that drove margin improvement in 2024 appear to be losing power
Within China's express and logistics segment, we find SF Holding to be far more attractive


J&T Global Express H224 Results: Levers That Drove Earlier Improvement Are Losing Power

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/j-t-global-express-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36819:1" rel="noopener">J&amp;T Global Express (1519 HK)</a> listed in October 2023 and was added to one global index in June 2024 and to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">HSCEI INDEX</a> in September 2024.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/j-t-global-express-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36819:1" rel="noopener">J&amp;T Global Express (1519 HK)</a> could be added to a global index in February and there will be a big passive buying impact. The company is also buying back stock.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/j-t-global-express-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36819:1" rel="noopener">J&amp;T Global Express (1519 HK)</a> has underperformed its peers over the past year and the index inclusion could help in closing some of that gap.</li>
</ul>



J&amp;T Global Express (1519 HK) listed in October 2023 and was added to one global index in June 2024 and to the HSCEI INDEX in September 2024.

J&amp;T Global Express (1519 HK) could be added to a global index in February and there will be a big passive buying impact. The company is also buying back stock.

J&amp;T Global Express (1519 HK) has underperformed its peers over the past year and the index inclusion could help in closing some of that gap.


J&T Global Express (1519 HK): Global Index Inclusion Coming Up

<ul>
<li>Q424 volume growth for J&amp;T's two main segments accelerated -- but how'd they do it?</li>
<li>In Chinese domestic segment last year, J&amp;T gained share vs market leader ZTO Express</li>
<li>We believe J&amp;T's volatile growth patterns could indicate painful price-volume tradeoffs</li>
</ul>


Q424 volume growth for J&amp;T's two main segments accelerated -- but how'd they do it?
In Chinese domestic segment last year, J&amp;T gained share vs market leader ZTO Express
We believe J&amp;T's volatile growth patterns could indicate painful price-volume tradeoffs


ZTO FY24 & J&T Global Q424 Volume Growth Rates Suggest Painful Price-Volume Tradeoffs Continue

Hong Kong

J&T Global Express Limited operates as a global logistics service provider. The Company offers road express delivery, air express transportation, supply chain warehousing, and other value added services. J&T Global Express conducts business in China, Philippines, Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam, and other countries.

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J&T Global Express (1519 HK)

ANE (9956 HK): Uncertainty Ahead of the Scheme Vote on 9 January

The decision not to raise the share cap and the lack of irrevocables from shareholders with blocking stakes cast doubt on the vote's success. A...

Arun George

J&T Express (1519 HK) - Impressive Volume Growth in 1Q25

J&T reported strong operating data in 1Q25, with parcel volume growing at an average of 31%.During the analyst briefing, J&T was confident that it...

CMB International

J&T Global Express H224 Results: Levers That Drove Earlier Improvement Are Losing Power

J&T Global's H224 earnings appear solid on the surface, but a closer look reveals that drivers of the company's improved profitability in recent...

Tracking Traffic