'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/139/255/original/2020-06-11_08-36-54.png?1591832240" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="139255"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div>STRESS TESTS - This Insight is the first in a series that will use a variety of standard and less-frequently used 'stress-tests' to look through the current euphoria and assess where business risk is concentrated among larger Japanese companies. According to Tokyo Shoko Research, 171 listed Japanese firms have raised nearly ¥10 trillion in new funds to weather COVID-19.ALTMAN Z-SCORES - The first Insight will update our earlier Who's<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-who-s-swimming-naked-part-2-altman-z-score" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:37316" rel="noopener"> Swimming Naked?</a> Insight and focus on the Altman Z-Score as updated for the most recent quarterly results for both manufacturing and non-manufacturing companies.  In each category, ee will look at both the companies that are below Altman's 'distress' levels and those companies that have the most significant negative deviation from their seven-year average score. Only six of the bottom-thirty manufacturing and five of the bottom-thirty manufacturing companies have outperformed over one year. Many are already Oversold and offer potential value opportunities -as with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nissan-motor-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:72:1" rel="noopener">Nissan Motor (7201 JP)</a> which is now as distressed as when Carlos Ghosn first arrived.  QUASI-FINANCIAL FIRMS - The Z-Score methodology does not work for financial firms. Accordingly, five non-financial companies which have significant financial subsidiaries -  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rakuten-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31:1" rel="noopener">Rakuten (4755 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/z-holdings-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19603:1" rel="noopener">Z Holdings (4689 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:359:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post (6178 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/softbank-group-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:315:1" rel="noopener">Softbank Group (9984 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sony-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:563:1" rel="noopener">Sony (6758 JP)</a>- have been excluded from this analysis.

Source: Japan AnalyticsSTRESS TESTS - This Insight is the first in a series that will use a variety of standard and less-frequently used 'stress-tests' to look through the current euphoria and assess where business risk is concentrated among larger Japanese companies. According to Tokyo Shoko Research, 171 listed Japanese firms have raised nearly ¥10 trillion in new funds to weather COVID-19.ALTMAN Z-SCORES - The first Insight will update our earlier Who's Swimming Naked? Insight and focus on the Altman Z-Score as updated for the most recent quarterly results for both manufacturing and non-manufacturing companies.  In each category, ee will look at both the companies that are below Altman's 'distress' levels and those companies that have the most significant negative deviation from their seven-year average score. Only six of the bottom-thirty manufacturing and five of the bottom-thirty manufacturing companies have outperformed over one year. Many are already Oversold and offer potential value opportunities -as with Nissan Motor (7201 JP) which is now as distressed as when Carlos Ghosn first arrived.  QUASI-FINANCIAL FIRMS - The Z-Score methodology does not work for financial firms. Accordingly, five non-financial companies which have significant financial subsidiaries -  Rakuten (4755 JP), Z Holdings (4689 JP), Japan Post (6178 JP), Softbank Group (9984 JP) and Sony (6758 JP)- have been excluded from this analysis. 

🇯🇵 JAPAN - Stress Tests Part 1 - Altman Z-Scores

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/136/061/original/2020-05-27_06-45-23.png?1590529581" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="136061"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div>In the DETAIL section below, we shall review Tuesday's announcements:-<ul>
<li>The balance between positive/neutral/negative of the 44 results announcements was 18:5:21.</li>
<li>For the 21 revisions/initial forecasts, the split was 5:0:16, and the average Forecast/Revision Score was -12.1. Only 36% of companies reporting full-year results chose to make current year forecasts. </li>
<li>42 companies will announce results today. The largest of these by market cap will be <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/recruit-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15070:1" rel="noopener">Recruit (6098 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dai-nippon-printing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19388:1" rel="noopener">Dai Nippon Printing (7912 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dentsu-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12434:1" rel="noopener">Dentsu (4324 JP)</a>. </li>
</ul>

Source • Japan AnalyticsIn the DETAIL section below, we shall review Tuesday's announcements:-
The balance between positive/neutral/negative of the 44 results announcements was 18:5:21.
For the 21 revisions/initial forecasts, the split was 5:0:16, and the average Forecast/Revision Score was -12.1. Only 36% of companies reporting full-year results chose to make current year forecasts. 
42 companies will announce results today. The largest of these by market cap will be Recruit (6098 JP), Dai Nippon Printing (7912 JP), and Dentsu (4324 JP). 


🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 26th May - Konica Minolta, Yamaha, DyDo, JAT

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

The South Korean government announced today that it will officially exclude Japan from its "whitelist" of preferred trading countries with fast track status starting September. This report provides details of what this mean for Japan and South Korea. The exclusion of Japan from this whitelist means that some of the products that are exported from South Korea to Japan (especially related to weapons production and machine tools) will likely face a lot stricter permit review processes that could face some delays. According to the Korean government, there are 1,735 strategic material items that are exported from South Korea to Japan, of which <a href="https://www.mk.co.kr/news/economy/view/2019/08/622290/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">1,138 items will be changed into an individual permit approval process. </a>Of the major exports to Japan from South Korea in 2018, the petroleum products were the highest amount ($5.1 billion), followed by steel ($4.0 billion), general machinery ($3.0 billion), petrochemicals ($2.1 billion), agriculture products/foods ($2.0 billion), and semiconductor products ($1.2 billion). In this report, we also provided a list of 25 companies in the Japanese stock market that are negatively impacted by a prolonged trade war between Japan and South Korea. These 25 stocks, including <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asahi-kasei-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19771:1" rel="noopener">Asahi Kasei (3407 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/panasonic-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:222:1" rel="noopener">Panasonic Corp (6752 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-airport-terminal-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18034:1" rel="noopener">Japan Airport Terminal Co (9706 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toray-industries-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:625:1" rel="noopener">Toray Industries (3402 JP)</a> are down on average 3.4% from end of June (day before Japanese initially announced economic restriction against South Korea) to August 12th, 2019.

The South Korean government announced today that it will officially exclude Japan from its "whitelist" of preferred trading countries with fast track status starting September. This report provides details of what this mean for Japan and South Korea. The exclusion of Japan from this whitelist means that some of the products that are exported from South Korea to Japan (especially related to weapons production and machine tools) will likely face a lot stricter permit review processes that could face some delays. According to the Korean government, there are 1,735 strategic material items that are exported from South Korea to Japan, of which 1,138 items will be changed into an individual permit approval process. Of the major exports to Japan from South Korea in 2018, the petroleum products were the highest amount ($5.1 billion), followed by steel ($4.0 billion), general machinery ($3.0 billion), petrochemicals ($2.1 billion), agriculture products/foods ($2.0 billion), and semiconductor products ($1.2 billion). In this report, we also provided a list of 25 companies in the Japanese stock market that are negatively impacted by a prolonged trade war between Japan and South Korea. These 25 stocks, including Asahi Kasei (3407 JP), Panasonic Corp (6752 JP), Japan Airport Terminal Co (9706 JP), and Toray Industries (3402 JP) are down on average 3.4% from end of June (day before Japanese initially announced economic restriction against South Korea) to August 12th, 2019.

South Korea Excludes Japan from Its Whitelist & A List of 25 Japanese Stocks Impacted by Conflict

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas, CrossASEAN Research

Henry Soediarko

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The visa-free privilege for Chinese tourists may be being reviewed due to the suspected illegal arms network in Pattaya. Chinese tourists contributed up to 20% of the total in 2024. </li>
<li>As of mid last year, Thailand officially restricted cannabis to medical use only; thus, everyone must obtain a a mandatory prescription, although implementation may be harder. </li>
<li>Alcohol consumption is banned in public places, but it won't impact the alcohol distributors. The 2-5 pm ban on alcohol sales did a lot of damage back then. </li>
</ul>


The visa-free privilege for Chinese tourists may be being reviewed due to the suspected illegal arms network in Pattaya. Chinese tourists contributed up to 20% of the total in 2024. 
As of mid last year, Thailand officially restricted cannabis to medical use only; thus, everyone must obtain a a mandatory prescription, although implementation may be harder. 
Alcohol consumption is banned in public places, but it won't impact the alcohol distributors. The 2-5 pm ban on alcohol sales did a lot of damage back then. 


Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

MSCI Emerging Markets Index / Technical Analysis

Global markets have deteriorated considerably over the past couple weeks. The MSCI EM index has decisively broken down below the 60,000 major support level we identified as support, and the MSCI ACWI ETF has broken below its 200-day MA, leading us to believe additional consolidation is likely.

Global markets have deteriorated considerably over the past couple weeks. The MSCI EM index has decisively broken down below the 60,000 major support level we identified as support, and the MSCI ACWI ETF has broken below its 200-day MA, leading us to believe additional consolidation is likely. 

EM and ACWI Showing Decisive Breakdowns - Metals & Miners Still Attractive

Japan

Japan Airport Terminal Co., Ltd. constructs, manages and maintains passenger terminals and airport facilities at Haneda and Narita airports.  The Company operates parking-lots, souvenir shops, and duty-free stores.  Japan Airport Terminal, through its subsidiaries, manages restaurants and in-flight meal services.

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Japan Airport Terminal Co (9706 JP)

🇯🇵 JAPAN - Stress Tests Part 1 - Altman Z-Scores

STRESS TESTS - This Insight is the first in a series that will use a variety of standard and less-frequently used 'stress-tests' to look through...

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 26th May - Konica Minolta, Yamaha, DyDo, JAT

In the DETAIL section below, we shall review Tuesday's announcements:- The balance between positive/neutral/negative of the 44 results...

Campbell Gunn

South Korea Excludes Japan from Its Whitelist & A List of 25 Japanese Stocks Impacted by Conflict

The South Korean government announced today that it will officially exclude Japan from its "whitelist" of preferred trading countries with fast...

Douglas Kim

On the Ground - Thailand

Chinese tourist visa privilege under review due to illegal arms network in Pattaya; alcohol consumption banned in public places but not impacting...

Henry Soediarko

EM and ACWI Showing Decisive Breakdowns - Metals & Miners Still Attractive

Global markets have deteriorated considerably over the past couple weeks. The MSCI EM index has decisively broken down below the 60,000 major...

Vermilion Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

🇯🇵 JAPAN - Stress Tests Part 1 - Altman Z-Scores

STRESS TESTS - This Insight is the first in a series that will use a variety of standard and less-frequently used 'stress-tests' to look through...

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 26th May - Konica Minolta, Yamaha, DyDo, JAT

In the DETAIL section below, we shall review Tuesday's announcements:- The balance between positive/neutral/negative of the 44 results...

Campbell Gunn

South Korea Excludes Japan from Its Whitelist & A List of 25 Japanese Stocks Impacted by Conflict

The South Korean government announced today that it will officially exclude Japan from its "whitelist" of preferred trading countries with fast...

Douglas Kim

On the Ground - Thailand

​Chinese tourist visa privilege under review due to illegal arms network in Pattaya; alcohol consumption banned in public places but not impacting...

Henry Soediarko

EM and ACWI Showing Decisive Breakdowns - Metals & Miners Still Attractive

Global markets have deteriorated considerably over the past couple weeks. The MSCI EM index has decisively broken down below the 60,000 major...

Vermilion Research

Chinese tourist visa privilege under review due to illegal arms network in Pattaya; alcohol consumption banned in public places but not impacting...