Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Postal price hike approved  swinging the Post business from a loss to a profit</li>
<li>Cancellation of 7.36% of outstanding shares from the latest buyback</li>
<li>Management Plan to be released in May will provide further details on improving ROE and PB</li>
</ul>


Postal price hike approved  swinging the Post business from a loss to a profit
Cancellation of 7.36% of outstanding shares from the latest buyback
Management Plan to be released in May will provide further details on improving ROE and PB


Japan Post Holdings Update (6178.JP)- Catalysts to Be Delivered

<ul>
<li>A company that is geared to Japan's macro revival with additional micro catalysts. </li>
<li>Ownership of financial companies which are set to benefit from a normalisation of Japanese monetary policy.</li>
<li>The low Price to Book means the company will need to keep up momentum on its capital management plans to  stay in the Prime Section of Topix.</li>
</ul>


A company that is geared to Japan's macro revival with additional micro catalysts. 
Ownership of financial companies which are set to benefit from a normalisation of Japanese monetary policy.
The low Price to Book means the company will need to keep up momentum on its capital management plans to  stay in the Prime Section of Topix.


Japan Post Holdings (6178.T) - Going Places!

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The TSE went through a multi-year period of planning a "<a href="https://www.jpx.co.jp/english/equities/market-restructure/index.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Market Restructuring</a>" which ended on 4 April 2022 as the TSE split into three Sections, TSE Prime, Standard, and Growth.</li>
<li>After that, the TSE formed a "Council of Experts" (<a href="https://www.jpx.co.jp/english/equities/improvements/follow-up/b5b4pj000004yqcc-att/follow-up_member_en.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">some very senior people</a>) that would <a href="https://www.jpx.co.jp/english/equities/improvements/follow-up/b5b4pj000004yqcc-att/follow-up_market_e.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">follow up</a> on the changes, and recommend new measures.  In January, new rule proposals dropped.</li>
<li>There was <a href="https://www.jpx.co.jp/english/equities/improvements/follow-up/b5b4pj000004yqcc-att/dreu250000000uqc.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">talk</a> of a hard end to the transition period. Also, the Council harped on Awareness of Capital Cost and Efficiency. Most notably, for companies with PBR &lt; 1.</li>
</ul>


The TSE went through a multi-year period of planning a "Market Restructuring" which ended on 4 April 2022 as the TSE split into three Sections, TSE Prime, Standard, and Growth.
After that, the TSE formed a "Council of Experts" (some very senior people) that would follow up on the changes, and recommend new measures.  In January, new rule proposals dropped.
There was talk of a hard end to the transition period. Also, the Council harped on Awareness of Capital Cost and Efficiency. Most notably, for companies with PBR &lt; 1.


Japan's Governance Changes I - The PBR 1.0 Target

Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<ul>
<li>Japan Post revised up NP guidance significantly with the post office business seeing a NP guidance boost of ¥60bn to ¥80bn.</li>
<li>The real star of the show though was Japan Post Bank where improving net interest income saw a significant boost to NP guidance and the dividend.</li>
<li>Japan Post Insurance did not revise up but is tracking to generate a YoY NP increase rather than the fall it has guided for.</li>
</ul>


Japan Post revised up NP guidance significantly with the post office business seeing a NP guidance boost of ¥60bn to ¥80bn.
The real star of the show though was Japan Post Bank where improving net interest income saw a significant boost to NP guidance and the dividend.
Japan Post Insurance did not revise up but is tracking to generate a YoY NP increase rather than the fall it has guided for.


Japan Post – Big Upward Revision Should Get Bigger

<ul>
<li>In March 2023, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:359:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP)</a> sold ¥1.1trln of shares in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-bank-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:838:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post Bank (7182 JP)</a>, lowering its stake considerably, raising float. <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-post-bank-7182-the-october-topix-ffw-adjustment" target="_blank" rel="noopener">There will be a TOPIX upweight</a></strong>. </li>
<li>In May, with earnings, they announced their <a href="https://www.japanpost.jp/en/ir/news/jpn/pdf/20230515_en04.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">intention to buy back ¥300bn of shares</a> or up to 10% of shares out. Today, they <a href="https://www.japanpost.jp/en/ir/news/jpn/pdf/20230814_en01.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced the details</a>. ¥300bn through March end.</li>
<li>In a ¥300bn ToSTNeT-3 tomorrow, the govt will sell back ¥105.7bn. That leaves a residual worth examining. So we examine.</li>
</ul>


In March 2023, Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP) sold ¥1.1trln of shares in Japan Post Bank (7182 JP), lowering its stake considerably, raising float. There will be a TOPIX upweight. 
In May, with earnings, they announced their intention to buy back ¥300bn of shares or up to 10% of shares out. Today, they announced the details. ¥300bn through March end.
In a ¥300bn ToSTNeT-3 tomorrow, the govt will sell back ¥105.7bn. That leaves a residual worth examining. So we examine.


Japan Post Holdings (6178) Starts Its Bigly Buyback With a Sale from the MOF-Boffins

Japan

Japan Post Holdings Co. Ltd. operates post stations, banks, and insurance business. The Company offers letters and goods transportation services, stamp sales, deposits, loans, and insurance products.

Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP)

Japan Post Holdings Update (6178.JP)- Catalysts to Be Delivered

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Rikki Malik

Japan Post Holdings (6178.T) - Going Places!

A company positioned for Japan's economic recovery, benefiting from financial sector ownership and capital management plans to increase its Value.

Rikki Malik

Japan's Governance Changes I - The PBR 1.0 Target

Japan's powers that be - the TSE and now the Finance Ministry - are targeting listcos with PBRs of less than 1.0x. That will mean they will be...

Travis Lundy

Japan Post – Big Upward Revision Should Get Bigger

Japan Post Holdings 2Q results should highlight to investors that guidance is absurdly conservative and improving net interest income at the bank...

Mio Kato

Japan Post Holdings (6178) Starts Its Bigly Buyback With a Sale from the MOF-Boffins

JPH (6178 JP) today announced they had bought back 126.428mm shares for ¥132.118bn in from 15-31 August. 103.1mm shs in the ToSTNeT-3, and 23.35mm...

Travis Lundy

Japan Post Holdings Update (6178.JP)- Catalysts to Be Delivered

Postage price hike approved swinging postal division to profit from loss. Cancellation of shares and announcement of the next management plan in...

Rikki Malik

Japan Post Holdings (6178.T) - Going Places!

​A company positioned for Japan's economic recovery, benefiting from financial sector ownership and capital management plans to increase its Value.

Rikki Malik

Japan's Governance Changes I - The PBR 1.0 Target

Japan's powers that be - the TSE and now the Finance Ministry - are targeting listcos with PBRs of less than 1.0x. That will mean they will be...

Travis Lundy

Japan Post – Big Upward Revision Should Get Bigger

Japan Post Holdings 2Q results should highlight to investors that guidance is absurdly conservative and improving net interest income at the bank...

Mio Kato

Japan Post Holdings (6178) Starts Its Bigly Buyback With a Sale from the MOF-Boffins

JPH (6178 JP) today announced they had bought back 126.428mm shares for ¥132.118bn in from 15-31 August. 103.1mm shs in the ToSTNeT-3, and 23.35mm...

Travis Lundy

A company positioned for Japan's economic recovery, benefiting from financial sector ownership and capital management plans to increase its Value.