'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

ja research

ja research is an independent research platform focused exclusively on Japanese equities. Leveraging data and graphic analysis provided by Japan Analytics, we provide insights on small and medium-sized companies that have been ignored by the sell-side as well as challenging conventional wisdom on larger companies. We also offer analyst and corporate access, the latter with translation if required. 

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/061/034/original/2018-08-16_19-07-34.png?1534672507" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="61034"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div>A GOOD QUARTER - The Composite Results Score has now declined for seven months in a row and is implying a slowing of the upward momentum in earnings.  However, the score has only declined by 31 basis points since last quarter showing a degree of 'stability' seen only in 2011 in recent years.  The aggregate Forecast/Revision score has also continued to decline and is now lower for the fourth straight month. As would be expected, this score is a reliable leading indicator for the Results Score and suggests further weakening in the rate of earnings growth in the months ahead.  Neither score is, as yet, suggesting a decline in earnings before the end of the fiscal year.YEN CORRELATION WEAKENING - This quarter's earnings' stability was surprising given the relative strength of the Yen compared to a year ago. In the past and even as recently as 2016, a 5 per cent year-on-year decline has resulted in negative Results Scores. The year-on-year change in now positive so any negative impact will dissipate over the next two quarters.MARKET FOLLOWS MOMENTUM LOWER - The All Market Composite peaked on 23rd January and has since fallen by 11% despite a continuation of the Bank of Japan's ETF purchasing programme. Weakening earnings momentum and the overvaluation of many of the leading stocks, as in our '<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-most-overbought-most-oversold-the-relative-price-score" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:21149">Nifty 50</a>' portfolio, have been contributing factors. With prospects for a much weaker Yen limited by the current trade negotiations between Japan and the United States, and with global growth slowing, we expect both Results and Revision Scores to trend lower, but to end the fiscal year in positive territory. Historically, the market has not risen during periods when both the Results and Forecast/Revision Scores have been trending down.<div class="content-highlight">MARKET RECOMMENDATION - Within a global portfolio, we would market-weight Japanese equities with a bias towards domestic sectors and not hedge the currency exposure.</div>SECTOR RESULTS SCORES -The good news is that only one sector, (Multi-Industry - 75% of which is <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/359" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:359:1">Japan Post [6178 JP</a>]) has a negative score - and its score is less negative than last quarter. Both the Media and Consumer Services sectors' scores turned positive and each increased by more than two points.  On the other hand, over half of our 29 sectors saw declining scores, although the number was lower than last quarter.  The top sectors in terms of quarter-on-quarter change were Energy, Consumer Services, Media, Information Technology and Other Commercial Products while the laggards were Non-Bank Finance, Chemicals, Construction, Machinery and Utilities. SECTOR REVISION SCORES - Five sectors have negative Forecast/Revision Scores with Utilities now joining Media, Multi-Industry, Autos and Banks from last quarter. The highest scores are in the Energy, Technology Hardware, Electrical Equipment, Retail and Information Technology sectors. Improvements of greater than one point were seen in Energy, Media and Machinery while Food, Beverages &amp; Tobacco, Chemicals, Utilities, Other Materials and Technology Hardware all lost more than one point. Overall eighteen sectors saw declines.REVISION V. RESULTS SCORES - The difference between the Results and Revision Scores is a good indicator of corporate expectations compared with the trailing-twelve-month reality. In some cases (e.g. Restaurants) the 'optimism' is due to a failure to revise forecasts in the light of weaker results. In others, such as Telecommunications, there is scope for upward revisions in the coming quarters.<div class="content-highlight">
THE OPTIMISTS
Restaurants • Other Materials • Electrical Equipment • Technology Hardware • Retail
THE PESSIMISTS
Banks • Autos • Telecommunications • Utilities • Media • Chemicals
</div>SECTOR PERFORMANCE - Over the last three months, our Japan Market Composite declined by 5.8%. Only four sectors saw an increase in value led by Telecommunications, Energy, Commercial Services and Information Technology. The largest declines were in the Building Materials, Metals, Real Estate Construction and Machinery sectors. Nine sectors are now negative over one year led by Building Materials, Metals and Food, Beverages &amp; Tobacco and only eight are up in double-digits led by Services and Information Technology. For the time being, Domestic Non-Manufacturing sectors 'rules the roost' and Domestic Cyclical sectors have taken over from Global Cyclicals in the 'doghouse'.'.<div class="content-highlight">
SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS
Our most-preferred sectors are currently Energy, Healthcare, Telecommunications, Other Commercial Products and Information Technology.
Least-preferred sectors are Metals, Chemicals, Machinery, Autos, Construction, Real Estate, Building Materials, Food Beverages &amp; Tobacco and Utilities.
</div>TOP 5 LARGER PEER GROUPS - The top five Peer Groups capitalised at over ¥1 trillion are Machine Tools &amp; Presses, PC &amp; Computer Peripherals, Oil &amp; Gas Refining &amp; Marketing, Telecom Distribution Services and Sporting &amp; Outdoor Goods. The top twenty larger Peer Groups have gained 16% over one year but have declined by 4% on average the last three months.BOTTOM 5 LARGER PEER GROUPS - The bottom five Peer Groups capitalised at over ¥1 trillion are Audio/Visual Content, LCD/LED Materials &amp; Equipment, Electrical Engineering, General Contractors and Real Estate - Leasing. The bottom twenty larger Peer Groups have lost 2% over one year and 9% over the last three months. Only Security Services and Tobacco have risen since May.<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/061/038/original/2018-08-19_19-33-03.png?1534674804" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="61038"></figure>

Source: Japan AnalyticsA GOOD QUARTER - The Composite Results Score has now declined for seven months in a row and is implying a slowing of the upward momentum in earnings.  However, the score has only declined by 31 basis points since last quarter showing a degree of 'stability' seen only in 2011 in recent years.  The aggregate Forecast/Revision score has also continued to decline and is now lower for the fourth straight month. As would be expected, this score is a reliable leading indicator for the Results Score and suggests further weakening in the rate of earnings growth in the months ahead.  Neither score is, as yet, suggesting a decline in earnings before the end of the fiscal year.YEN CORRELATION WEAKENING - This quarter's earnings' stability was surprising given the relative strength of the Yen compared to a year ago. In the past and even as recently as 2016, a 5 per cent year-on-year decline has resulted in negative Results Scores. The year-on-year change in now positive so any negative impact will dissipate over the next two quarters.MARKET FOLLOWS MOMENTUM LOWER - The All Market Composite peaked on 23rd January and has since fallen by 11% despite a continuation of the Bank of Japan's ETF purchasing programme. Weakening earnings momentum and the overvaluation of many of the leading stocks, as in our 'Nifty 50' portfolio, have been contributing factors. With prospects for a much weaker Yen limited by the current trade negotiations between Japan and the United States, and with global growth slowing, we expect both Results and Revision Scores to trend lower, but to end the fiscal year in positive territory. Historically, the market has not risen during periods when both the Results and Forecast/Revision Scores have been trending down.MARKET RECOMMENDATION - Within a global portfolio, we would market-weight Japanese equities with a bias towards domestic sectors and not hedge the currency exposure.SECTOR RESULTS SCORES -The good news is that only one sector, (Multi-Industry - 75% of which is Japan Post [6178 JP]) has a negative score - and its score is less negative than last quarter. Both the Media and Consumer Services sectors' scores turned positive and each increased by more than two points.  On the other hand, over half of our 29 sectors saw declining scores, although the number was lower than last quarter.  The top sectors in terms of quarter-on-quarter change were Energy, Consumer Services, Media, Information Technology and Other Commercial Products while the laggards were Non-Bank Finance, Chemicals, Construction, Machinery and Utilities. SECTOR REVISION SCORES - Five sectors have negative Forecast/Revision Scores with Utilities now joining Media, Multi-Industry, Autos and Banks from last quarter. The highest scores are in the Energy, Technology Hardware, Electrical Equipment, Retail and Information Technology sectors. Improvements of greater than one point were seen in Energy, Media and Machinery while Food, Beverages &amp; Tobacco, Chemicals, Utilities, Other Materials and Technology Hardware all lost more than one point. Overall eighteen sectors saw declines.REVISION V. RESULTS SCORES - The difference between the Results and Revision Scores is a good indicator of corporate expectations compared with the trailing-twelve-month reality. In some cases (e.g. Restaurants) the 'optimism' is due to a failure to revise forecasts in the light of weaker results. In others, such as Telecommunications, there is scope for upward revisions in the coming quarters.
THE OPTIMISTS
Restaurants • Other Materials • Electrical Equipment • Technology Hardware • Retail
THE PESSIMISTS
Banks • Autos • Telecommunications • Utilities • Media • Chemicals
SECTOR PERFORMANCE - Over the last three months, our Japan Market Composite declined by 5.8%. Only four sectors saw an increase in value led by Telecommunications, Energy, Commercial Services and Information Technology. The largest declines were in the Building Materials, Metals, Real Estate Construction and Machinery sectors. Nine sectors are now negative over one year led by Building Materials, Metals and Food, Beverages &amp; Tobacco and only eight are up in double-digits led by Services and Information Technology. For the time being, Domestic Non-Manufacturing sectors 'rules the roost' and Domestic Cyclical sectors have taken over from Global Cyclicals in the 'doghouse'.'.
SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS
Our most-preferred sectors are currently Energy, Healthcare, Telecommunications, Other Commercial Products and Information Technology.
Least-preferred sectors are Metals, Chemicals, Machinery, Autos, Construction, Real Estate, Building Materials, Food Beverages &amp; Tobacco and Utilities.
TOP 5 LARGER PEER GROUPS - The top five Peer Groups capitalised at over ¥1 trillion are Machine Tools &amp; Presses, PC &amp; Computer Peripherals, Oil &amp; Gas Refining &amp; Marketing, Telecom Distribution Services and Sporting &amp; Outdoor Goods. The top twenty larger Peer Groups have gained 16% over one year but have declined by 4% on average the last three months.BOTTOM 5 LARGER PEER GROUPS - The bottom five Peer Groups capitalised at over ¥1 trillion are Audio/Visual Content, LCD/LED Materials &amp; Equipment, Electrical Engineering, General Contractors and Real Estate - Leasing. The bottom twenty larger Peer Groups have lost 2% over one year and 9% over the last three months. Only Security Services and Tobacco have risen since May.

Japan: Results & Revision Scores Summer 2018 Update - Market Composite, Sectors & Peer Groups

CYCLICAL SECTORS RALLY WITH THE MARKET - Japanese equities have rallied 3.6% over the last two weeks, and the market composite is now flat since the end of April. Mean reversion was widespread and the range from worst to best three-month change narrowed from 22.5% to 18.1%. Banks, Energy, Chemicals, and Metals led, while REITs, Media,Telcom and Retail lagged. Domestic growth sectors (Internet, Commercial Services, Information Technology and Healthcare) are still well ahead over three months…

CYCLICAL SECTORS RALLY WITH THE MARKET - Japanese equities have rallied 3.6% over the last two weeks, and the market composite is now flat since the end of April. Mean reversion was widespread and the range from worst to best three-month change narrowed from 22.5% to 18.1%. Banks, Energy, Chemicals, and Metals led, while REITs, Media,Telcom and Retail lagged. Domestic growth sectors (Internet, Commercial Services, Information Technology and Healthcare) are still well ahead over three months…

Japan Fortnightly Update: Banks to Neutral/Utilities to Negative - Results Momentum Still Slowing

INTERNET, TELECOMS &amp; HEALTHCARE ▲ RETAIL, RESTAURANTS &amp; RAILWAYS▼- Domestic non-financial sectors continue to shine in Japan. However, in the last two weeks, there has been a marked shift away from lower-margin domestic sectors that are now seeing rising fixed and variable costs (Restaurants, Transportation, Media, Retail and Food) towards higher-margin sectors such as Telecommunications, Internet, Healthcare and Information Technology.  The weaker Yen has helped reduce the negative momentum in…

INTERNET, TELECOMS &amp; HEALTHCARE ▲ RETAIL, RESTAURANTS &amp; RAILWAYS▼- Domestic non-financial sectors continue to shine in Japan. However, in the last two weeks, there has been a marked shift away from lower-margin domestic sectors that are now seeing rising fixed and variable costs (Restaurants, Transportation, Media, Retail and Food) towards higher-margin sectors such as Telecommunications, Internet, Healthcare and Information Technology.  The weaker Yen has helped reduce the negative momentum in…

Japan: Sector Weight 3 Month Change - Bi-Polar With A Twist

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

<ul class=""><li>E-commerce sales grew just under 10% in 2016 at the most conservative estimate, and we expect double digit growth for at least the next five years.</li><li>E-commerce will be Japan’s largest single retail channel by 2025. It overtook convenience stores to become the second biggest after supermarkets and GMS in 2015.</li><li>While Japan lags behind other major markets like China, the US and UK in terms of e-commerce share of overall retailing, definitions differ, and for mobile shopping, Japan is by far the most advanced market – and luckily for merchants in Japan, smartphone shoppers spend as much as seven times more than average shoppers online. </li><li>Fashion has been the biggest driver of e-commerce in the last five years, other than digital services, but it is food that is likely to see the biggest online growth surge going forward, presaging a major upheaval in food distribution.</li><li>All this growth places a significant burden on courier firms, but solutions are being worked out, and because of the country’s dense population clusters, Japan could become, while not the biggest e-commerce market, quite possible the most efficient. </li></ul>

E-commerce sales grew just under 10% in 2016 at the most conservative estimate, and we expect double digit growth for at least the next five years.E-commerce will be Japan’s largest single retail channel by 2025. It overtook convenience stores to become the second biggest after supermarkets and GMS in 2015.While Japan lags behind other major markets like China, the US and UK in terms of e-commerce share of overall retailing, definitions differ, and for mobile shopping, Japan is by far the most advanced market – and luckily for merchants in Japan, smartphone shoppers spend as much as seven times more than average shoppers online. Fashion has been the biggest driver of e-commerce in the last five years, other than digital services, but it is food that is likely to see the biggest online growth surge going forward, presaging a major upheaval in food distribution.All this growth places a significant burden on courier firms, but solutions are being worked out, and because of the country’s dense population clusters, Japan could become, while not the biggest e-commerce market, quite possible the most efficient. 

E-Commerce in Japan 2017-2022: Relentless Expansion Means Upheaval in Consumer Goods Distribution

Doing bespoke work since 2002....., Custom Products Group

Patrick Hansen

Doing bespoke work since 2002.....

Custom Products Group

Custom Products was started 14 years ago at Lehman Brothers by current co-founder Patrick Hansen, CFA. After 3 years at Lehman, Patrick moved the team to Macquarie Securities where Simon Rigney (co-founder) joined. 3 years ago we took Custom Products independent. 

Our core strength can be summed up three words. 1- Customization - we have very little off the shelf products and most work is done on a one on one bespoke basis. 2- Speed - We pride ourselves in our ability to get requests back to the client very quickly. 3- Confidentiality - We do not redistribute. There is no grace period where we wait a week and then mass blast. Any request stops with that client.

Earnings will start in earnest in the next couple of weeks and so we thought we would take a look at 1- companies that have recently revised full-year EPS guidance 2- names where there is a significant gap between guidance and consensus and 3- names where there is a big variance in consensus estimates.First we looked at names that have revised up full-year EPS guidance in the last 2 months. On the positive side, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/359" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:359:1">Japan Post Holdings Co Ltd (6178 JP)</a> revised up EPS guidance by 13%, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/638" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:638:1">JX Holdings Inc</a>…

Earnings will start in earnest in the next couple of weeks and so we thought we would take a look at 1- companies that have recently revised full-year EPS guidance 2- names where there is a significant gap between guidance and consensus and 3- names where there is a big variance in consensus estimates.First we looked at names that have revised up full-year EPS guidance in the last 2 months. On the positive side, Japan Post Holdings Co Ltd (6178 JP) revised up EPS guidance by 13%, JX Holdings Inc…

With Earnings About to Start, Names that Have Recently Revised or Have Analysts Still Confused....

Japan

Japan Post Holdings Co. Ltd. operates post stations, banks, and insurance business. The Company offers letters and goods transportation services, stamp sales, deposits, loans, and insurance products.

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Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP)

Japan: Results & Revision Scores Summer 2018 Update - Market Composite, Sectors & Peer Groups

A GOOD QUARTER - The Composite Results Score has now declined for seven months in a row and is implying a slowing of the upward momentum in...

Campbell Gunn

Japan Fortnightly Update: Banks to Neutral/Utilities to Negative - Results Momentum Still Slowing

CYCLICAL SECTORS RALLY WITH THE MARKET - Japanese equities have rallied 3.6% over the last two weeks, and the market composite is now flat since...

Campbell Gunn

Japan: Sector Weight 3 Month Change - Bi-Polar With A Twist

INTERNET, TELECOMS & HEALTHCARE ▲ RETAIL, RESTAURANTS & RAILWAYS▼- Domestic non-financial sectors continue to shine in Japan. However, in...

Campbell Gunn

E-Commerce in Japan 2017-2022: Relentless Expansion Means Upheaval in Consumer Goods Distribution

E-commerce sales grew just under 10% in 2016 at the most conservative estimate, and we expect double digit growth for at least the next five...

Michael Causton

With Earnings About to Start, Names that Have Recently Revised or Have Analysts Still Confused....

Earnings will start in earnest in the next couple of weeks and so we thought we would take a look at 1- companies that have recently revised...

Custom Products Group

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