Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX / Technical Analysis

<p>Despite EAFE’s YTD outperformance relative to EM, EAFE and EM returns have generally been equal since August, shown by the stalemate in the EAFE vs. EM ratio. The U.S. dollar (DXY) is currently trading near support within the 16-17 month uptrend channel. Technicals suggest the most likely scenario is for the DXY uptrend to continue and for support to hold -- which would likely result in EAFE reasserting as leadership.  In this publication we highlight attractive investment themes and individual ideas across developed markets, with special attention given to Japan, Germany, Sweden, Italy, Spain, and Switzerland.</p>

Despite EAFE’s YTD outperformance relative to EM, EAFE and EM returns have generally been equal since August, shown by the stalemate in the EAFE vs. EM ratio. The U.S. dollar (DXY) is currently trading near support within the 16-17 month uptrend channel. Technicals suggest the most likely scenario is for the DXY uptrend to continue and for support to hold -- which would likely result in EAFE reasserting as leadership.  In this publication we highlight attractive investment themes and individual ideas across developed markets, with special attention given to Japan, Germany, Sweden, Italy, Spain, and Switzerland.

Developed Markets Strategy: Stick with Japan

Multi-asset Macro/Emerging Markets Strategist

Virgil Fernandez Esguerra

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p>Our guide to this week’s global macro risk events and trading opportunities.</p><ul class="">
<li>
<strong>This week in trade ideas</strong>: Go strategic long Norwegian Krone vs EUR and Saudi stocks. Stay short Italian stocks and bonds vs Stoxx 600 and Bunds. Consider fading Trump steel tariff news via relative value short US steel names vs Japanese peers. Stay strategic short Swedish Krona vs EUR. We stay constructive on JPY.</li>
<li>
<strong>Monday</strong>: Markets digest Italy vote/Germany SPD referendum, Trump tariffs on steel. Also: Australia MI CPI…</li>
</ul>

Our guide to this week’s global macro risk events and trading opportunities.

This week in trade ideas: Go strategic long Norwegian Krone vs EUR and Saudi stocks. Stay short Italian stocks and bonds vs Stoxx 600 and Bunds. Consider fading Trump steel tariff news via relative value short US steel names vs Japanese peers. Stay strategic short Swedish Krona vs EUR. We stay constructive on JPY.

Monday: Markets digest Italy vote/Germany SPD referendum, Trump tariffs on steel. Also: Australia MI CPI…


Week Ahead in Global Macro: US NFP, Tariffs, ECB, BOJ, RBA, China NPC/CPI/Trade, BOC, BNM

Doing bespoke work since 2002....., Custom Products Group

Patrick Hansen

Doing bespoke work since 2002.....

Custom Products Group

Custom Products was started 14 years ago at Lehman Brothers by current co-founder Patrick Hansen, CFA. After 3 years at Lehman, Patrick moved the team to Macquarie Securities where Simon Rigney (co-founder) joined. 3 years ago we took Custom Products independent. 

Our core strength can be summed up three words. 1- Customization - we have very little off the shelf products and most work is done on a one on one bespoke basis. 2- Speed - We pride ourselves in our ability to get requests back to the client very quickly. 3- Confidentiality - We do not redistribute. There is no grace period where we wait a week and then mass blast. Any request stops with that client.

<p>With a good portion of Japanese companies having already announced 1H results, we looked at the names that are well positioned for the second half. Names that could potentially beat full-year estimates. We basically screened for names that have already achieved greater than 60% of full-year consensus OP estimates and have also increased full-year Company OP guidance in the last month. </p><h2>Screen Criteria</h2><ol>
<li>Mkt-cap above ¥50bn</li>
<li>Fiscal year ending on March 31</li>
<li>Greater than 60% of full-year OP consensus is…</li>
</ol>

With a good portion of Japanese companies having already announced 1H results, we looked at the names that are well positioned for the second half. Names that could potentially beat full-year estimates. We basically screened for names that have already achieved greater than 60% of full-year consensus OP estimates and have also increased full-year Company OP guidance in the last month. Screen Criteria
Mkt-cap above ¥50bn
Fiscal year ending on March 31
Greater than 60% of full-year OP consensus is…


Names Potentially Well Positioned to Beat Year-End Estimates

Korea / Special Situations, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Situations

Equity Capital Markets

Sunic System Ltd. / Equity Capital Markets

<p>The most important question for Sunic's IPO bookbuilding that is currently in progress is whether Sunic will receive more orders from LGD for the small-sized OLED panel production lines that will be housed in LGD's P10. Samsung Display won't do business with Sunic any time soon. In addition, those Chinese and Taiwanese display makers are still some years aways from turning to 6GH. Of course, mid capacity equipment is also an important element for Sunic's overall sales performance. But its success with this product segment also highly depends on its success in the large capacity equipment market since this allows Sunic to gain further trust even from mid capacity equipment buyers. So once again, the whole focus of this IPO bookbuilding is whether Sunic can get orders from LGD for P10 and if so how many.</p>

The most important question for Sunic's IPO bookbuilding that is currently in progress is whether Sunic will receive more orders from LGD for the small-sized OLED panel production lines that will be housed in LGD's P10. Samsung Display won't do business with Sunic any time soon. In addition, those Chinese and Taiwanese display makers are still some years aways from turning to 6GH. Of course, mid capacity equipment is also an important element for Sunic's overall sales performance. But its success with this product segment also highly depends on its success in the large capacity equipment market since this allows Sunic to gain further trust even from mid capacity equipment buyers. So once again, the whole focus of this IPO bookbuilding is whether Sunic can get orders from LGD for P10 and if so how many.

Sunic System IPO Part 2 - Key Considerations for Bookbuilding

Macroeconomics

<p>With TOPIX up 30% since last July we thought we would revisit our Overbought/Oversold screens and look for names that have potentially run too much and names that have fallen behind. </p><h2>Overbought Screen Criteria</h2><ol>
<li>Mkt-cap is greater than ¥70bn</li>
<li>Price is up more than 50% since July 14, 2016</li>
<li>1-month stochastic oscillator is greater than 85</li>
<li>Current price is 35% above the 200-day moving average</li>
</ol><h2>Results</h2><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/026/930/original/2.png?1496165810" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="26930"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Custom Products</div><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/14959" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14959:1">Link And Motivation Inc (2170 JP)</a> tops the list. Link and Motivation is up 281% since…</p>

With TOPIX up 30% since last July we thought we would revisit our Overbought/Oversold screens and look for names that have potentially run too much and names that have fallen behind. Overbought Screen Criteria
Mkt-cap is greater than ¥70bn
Price is up more than 50% since July 14, 2016
1-month stochastic oscillator is greater than 85
Current price is 35% above the 200-day moving average
ResultsSource: Custom ProductsLink And Motivation Inc (2170 JP) tops the list. Link and Motivation is up 281% since…

Names in Japan that Have Run Too Much and Ones that Have Not Run Enough....

Japan

The Japan Steel Works Ltd produces machinery for casts, forged steel, and plastics.  The Company, serving both the public and private sectors, manufactures industrial equipment utilized in facilities such as oil refineries, manufacturing plants, and petrochemical plants.

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Japan Steel Works (5631 JP)

Developed Markets Strategy: Stick with Japan

Despite EAFE’s YTD outperformance relative to EM, EAFE and EM returns have generally been equal since August, shown by the stalemate in the EAFE...

Vermilion Research

Week Ahead in Global Macro: US NFP, Tariffs, ECB, BOJ, RBA, China NPC/CPI/Trade, BOC, BNM

Our guide to this week’s global macro risk events and trading opportunities. This week in trade ideas: Go strategic long Norwegian Krone vs EUR...

Virgil Fernandez Esguerra

Names Potentially Well Positioned to Beat Year-End Estimates

With a good portion of Japanese companies having already announced 1H results, we looked at the names that are well positioned for the second half....

Custom Products Group

Sunic System IPO Part 2 - Key Considerations for Bookbuilding

The most important question for Sunic's IPO bookbuilding that is currently in progress is whether Sunic will receive more orders from LGD for the...

Sanghyun Park

Names in Japan that Have Run Too Much and Ones that Have Not Run Enough....

With TOPIX up 30% since last July we thought we would revisit our Overbought/Oversold screens and look for names that have potentially run too much...

Custom Products Group

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

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