Partner and Fund Manager, River Valley Asset Management

Jamshed Desai

Partner and Fund Manager

Singapore-based boutique asset management firm

River Valley Asset Management

River Valley Asset Management is a Singapore-based boutique asset management firm. Our team at RVAM strongly believes in being a trusted steward of our clients' wealth across generations.

Each of our fund managers has years of rich portfolio management experience over multiple market cycles at world-class investment houses. We bring our clients the combined strength of our investment team to manage their financial portfolios and to provide bespoke guidance on all aspects of their financial health.

We offer multi-asset class expert investment advice to accredited investors who are family offices, high net worth individuals and institutional investors to preserve and grow our clients' wealth.

The fund management team of the company includes Homiyar Vasania, Anand Ramachandran and Jamshed Desai.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

The bear arguments for not owning tobacco are beginning to sound like scratched LP records to us. It is all in the price, as they say. It would be worth casting an eye on the valuations of tobacco stocks globally and a few regional listed entities to illustrate how significantly they have derated in recent times. Looking at sell-side consensus estimates too, earnings expectations of investors over the next 2-3 years are perhaps better now from what they were three years back and yet stocks trade at trough multiples.Putting it all together, we are at an important inflection point for tobacco stocks across the world. The business is transitioning in the safe hands of large well-funded multinationals that have stood the tests of time. Their cash-flows are far from being threatened by regulation or technological disruptions. The current state of flux in fixed income markets has slammed the brakes on these stocks, which we think is temporary. Truly long-term value-biased investors with a penchant for cash-flows and yield ought to consider tobacco stocks here and now.

The bear arguments for not owning tobacco are beginning to sound like scratched LP records to us. It is all in the price, as they say. It would be worth casting an eye on the valuations of tobacco stocks globally and a few regional listed entities to illustrate how significantly they have derated in recent times. Looking at sell-side consensus estimates too, earnings expectations of investors over the next 2-3 years are perhaps better now from what they were three years back and yet stocks trade at trough multiples.Putting it all together, we are at an important inflection point for tobacco stocks across the world. The business is transitioning in the safe hands of large well-funded multinationals that have stood the tests of time. Their cash-flows are far from being threatened by regulation or technological disruptions. The current state of flux in fixed income markets has slammed the brakes on these stocks, which we think is temporary. Truly long-term value-biased investors with a penchant for cash-flows and yield ought to consider tobacco stocks here and now.

Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
Context: The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nh-foods-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12235:1" rel="noopener">NH Foods (2282 JP)</a> vs. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-tobacco-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13498:1" rel="noopener">Japan Tobacco (2914 JP)</a> price ratio has deviated more than four standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.</li>
<li>
Highlight: Going long <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nh-foods-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12235:1" rel="noopener">NH Foods (2282 JP)</a> and short <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-tobacco-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13498:1" rel="noopener">Japan Tobacco (2914 JP)</a>  targets a 11% return.</li>
<li>
Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.</li>
</ul>



Context: The NH Foods (2282 JP) vs. Japan Tobacco (2914 JP) price ratio has deviated more than four standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.

Highlight: Going long NH Foods (2282 JP) and short Japan Tobacco (2914 JP)  targets a 11% return.

Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.


NH Foods (2282 JP) Vs. Japan Tobacco (2914 JP): Four-Sigma Tail Event Signals Pair Trade

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

A brief note on how rising allocations in Japan among global funds have stalled since the start of the year.  <h2>Latest Positioning Overview</h2>Japan's average weight in global portfolios stands at 6.84%, being both the 3rd largest country allocation after the US and the UK but also the third largest underweight after the US and Australia.<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/048/280/original/Picture1.png?1522121596" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="48280"></figure>Sector allocations are dominated by industrials (1.59%), consumer discretionary (1.21%) and technology (1.16%).  Only telcos and tech are held overweight with…

A brief note on how rising allocations in Japan among global funds have stalled since the start of the year.  Latest Positioning OverviewJapan's average weight in global portfolios stands at 6.84%, being both the 3rd largest country allocation after the US and the UK but also the third largest underweight after the US and Australia.Sector allocations are dominated by industrials (1.59%), consumer discretionary (1.21%) and technology (1.16%).  Only telcos and tech are held overweight with…

Macro & Asian equity Technical Strategies, BBSP Asia

Federico D'Inca

Macro & Asian equity Technical Strategies

BBSP Asia

Technical Analysis

Sony Financial Group / Technical Analysis

Mid Term Country Allocation (Tactical view) in terms of Relative Value vs MXAP • HSCEI/MXAP ratio is moving in a range pattern. Therefore downgrade HSCEI from increase exposure to hold. While HSI/MXAP ratio remains above a trend line support (preference for a tactical HSI outperformance over HSCEI). • Keep “overweight” position on HSI, Nikkei, ASX and TWSE. • Maintain “Hold for KOSPI and Nifty vs MXAPShould you have any questions and wish to speak with one of our analysts, please don’t hesitate to…

Mid Term Country Allocation (Tactical view) in terms of Relative Value vs MXAP • HSCEI/MXAP ratio is moving in a range pattern. Therefore downgrade HSCEI from increase exposure to hold. While HSI/MXAP ratio remains above a trend line support (preference for a tactical HSI outperformance over HSCEI). • Keep “overweight” position on HSI, Nikkei, ASX and TWSE. • Maintain “Hold for KOSPI and Nifty vs MXAPShould you have any questions and wish to speak with one of our analysts, please don’t hesitate to…

BBSP Equity Asia Weekly Research 10th January 2018

Asean-focused. Ex-Head of Thai Research

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

Asean (Thailand) Focused Independent Research

M Corp Review

M Corp is led by Athaporn Arayasantiparb who served as Head of Research for UOB and ANZ in Thailand and was an award-winning telecoms analyst at UBS in 2010 (AsiaMoney Thailand category) and Regional Strategist for DMG in Singapore. Prior to that, he also served as Kasikornbank credit analyst and scholar. He has a total work experience of 17 years, of which 14 were in research and 4 in research management roles. He started his career as an engineer for PTT and currently manages family investments. He holds an MBA from Stern (NYU) and CFA Charter since 2006. Apart from IPO Radar, which focuses on future listings, MCorp Review also provides six on-going thematic series ranked by frequency in descending order, namely: 1) Silicon Stories (technology) 2) Sathorn Series (financial services) 3) Thai-Coons (billionaire origin stories) 4) Reality Check (data-driven, investigative) 5) Thai Media Spotlight; and 6) Thai Macro Watch (global market drivers).

Thailand is probably the second biggest tobacco market in ASEAN after Indonesia. Heck, it's not easy to compete with a market where some kids start smoking at 8, but 16 is not an unusual age for Thai teens to start, so it isn't surprising that the boldly named TMT (Tobbaco Monopoly of Thailand) was once the country's biggest contributor of state revenues in the past yo! Of course, this is something that doctors and medical experts have always opposed, since they feel that any state revenue…

Thailand is probably the second biggest tobacco market in ASEAN after Indonesia. Heck, it's not easy to compete with a market where some kids start smoking at 8, but 16 is not an unusual age for Thai teens to start, so it isn't surprising that the boldly named TMT (Tobbaco Monopoly of Thailand) was once the country's biggest contributor of state revenues in the past yo! Of course, this is something that doctors and medical experts have always opposed, since they feel that any state revenue…

Tax Troubles Backfire for Thailand's Big Tobacco

Japan

Japan Tobacco, Inc. operates as an tobacco product company. The Company manufactures, markets and sells cigarettes and other tobacco products internationally. Japan Tobacco is also engaged in pharmaceutical and food businesses.

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Japan Tobacco (2914 JP)

Don't Stub This Butt!!!

The bear arguments for not owning tobacco are beginning to sound like scratched LP records to us. It is all in the price, as they say. It would be...

River Valley Asset Management

NH Foods (2282 JP) Vs. Japan Tobacco (2914 JP): Four-Sigma Tail Event Signals Pair Trade

11% target return in a potential pair trade as the price ratio reaches a rare four-sigma extreme, creating a statistical mean-reversion opportunity...

Gaudenz Schneider

Global Funds - Japan Momentum Stalls

A brief note on how rising allocations in Japan among global funds have stalled since the start of the year. Latest Positioning OverviewJapan's...

Steven Holden

BBSP Equity Asia Weekly Research 10th January 2018

Mid Term Country Allocation (Tactical view) in terms of Relative Value vs MXAP• HSCEI/MXAP ratio is moving in a range pattern. Therefore downgrade...

BBSP Asia

Tax Troubles Backfire for Thailand's Big Tobacco

Thailand is probably the second biggest tobacco market in ASEAN after Indonesia. Heck, it's not easy to compete with a market where some kids start...

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

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