'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

ja research

ja research is an independent research platform focused exclusively on Japanese equities. Leveraging data and graphic analysis provided by Japan Analytics, we provide insights on small and medium-sized companies that have been ignored by the sell-side as well as challenging conventional wisdom on larger companies. We also offer analyst and corporate access, the latter with translation if required. 

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/116/740/original/2020-02-07_03-39-22.png?1581019080" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="116740"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>INTO THE 'RED'</strong> - As predicted, our Results Score dipped into negative territory yesterday, declining by 56 basis points to -0.21. Of the 65 large-cap results, only ten companies had positive qoq changes in Results Score, while seventeen saw double-digit declines. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-motor-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:73:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Motor (7203 JP)</a> did well to limit its quarterly year-on-year changes in Revenue and OP to -3%, and they are forecasting similar declines against TTM numbers for the full year. The Forecast/Revision Score added six basis points driven primarily by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shiseido-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5718:1" rel="noopener">Shiseido (4911 JP)</a> overly optimistic initial forecast for FY2020. 'Mr Market' meanwhile is content to bid up share prices to close to the recent highs, and 8% below the January 2018 peak, when the Results Score was 7.54. </p><hr><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>• SECTOR TIMELINE •</strong></p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/116/741/original/2020-02-07_03-45-05.png?1581019946" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="116741"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>SECTOR TIMELINE</strong> - The majority of Sectors saw lower Results &amp; Revision Scores yesterday, with <strong>Food, Beverages &amp; Tobacco</strong> being the exception due to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-tobacco-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13498:1" rel="noopener">Japan Tobacco (2914 JP)</a>'s stable topline performance and better-than-expected 2020 forecast. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsubishi-heavy-industries" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13613:1" rel="noopener">Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (7011 JP)</a> decline into the red at the OP level and full-year downward revision took the <strong>Machinery</strong> Sector lower, while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seibu-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:458:1" rel="noopener">Seibu (9024 JP)</a> was the negative driver for <strong>Multi-Industry</strong>. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/terumo-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6708:1" rel="noopener">Terumo (4543 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/olympus-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:356:1" rel="noopener">Olympus (7733 JP)</a> fuelled the decline in <strong>Healthcare</strong> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fujifilm-holdings-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16353:1" rel="noopener">Fujifilm (4901 JP)</a> did the same for <strong>Technology Hardware</strong>. </p>

Source • Japan AnalyticsINTO THE 'RED' - As predicted, our Results Score dipped into negative territory yesterday, declining by 56 basis points to -0.21. Of the 65 large-cap results, only ten companies had positive qoq changes in Results Score, while seventeen saw double-digit declines. Toyota Motor (7203 JP) did well to limit its quarterly year-on-year changes in Revenue and OP to -3%, and they are forecasting similar declines against TTM numbers for the full year. The Forecast/Revision Score added six basis points driven primarily by Shiseido (4911 JP) overly optimistic initial forecast for FY2020. 'Mr Market' meanwhile is content to bid up share prices to close to the recent highs, and 8% below the January 2018 peak, when the Results Score was 7.54. • SECTOR TIMELINE •Source • Japan AnalyticsSECTOR TIMELINE - The majority of Sectors saw lower Results &amp; Revision Scores yesterday, with Food, Beverages &amp; Tobacco being the exception due to Japan Tobacco (2914 JP)'s stable topline performance and better-than-expected 2020 forecast. Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (7011 JP) decline into the red at the OP level and full-year downward revision took the Machinery Sector lower, while Seibu (9024 JP) was the negative driver for Multi-Industry. Terumo (4543 JP) and Olympus (7733 JP) fuelled the decline in Healthcare and Fujifilm (4901 JP) did the same for Technology Hardware. 

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions Daily Roundup - 6th February ▲ 2914 4911 6406 ▼ 9024 4901 7951

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Smoore International Holdings / Equity Capital Markets

<p>Smoore Tech is a leading e-cigarette and component manufacturer in China. The company was delisted from the venture board in China, the NEEQ, and is seeking a listing in Hong Kong to raise up to USD 400 million. In our previous note, we have looked at the company's background, its brief financials, and its shareholders. We are impressed by the company's stellar growth in the past and its technology-driven business. </p><p>We also look at the latest regulatory landscape on e-cigarettes in the company’s main market, the US and China. We think the FDA’s deadline for pre-marketing approval in 2020, even if pushed forward, will not present a major problem to the company’s blue-chip clients. Looking at the development in China, we also believe that the e-cigarette will likely be regulated in a similar manner as it is in the US. There might be short term hiccups but a regulatory framework that benefits the general public is long term positive for the e-cigarette industry.</p><div><h2>Our previous coverage on Smoore International</h2></div><div><ul>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/smoore-tech-pre-ipo-6y-and-1h2019-financials-show-technology-driven-growth" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Smoore Tech (麦克韦尔) Pre-IPO: 6Y and 1H2019 Financials Show Technology Driven Growth</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/smoore-tech-ipo-hidden-e-cigarette-player-behind-the-feelm-technology" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Smoore Tech (麦克韦尔) IPO: Hidden E-Cigarette Player Behind the FEELM Technology</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/smoore-pre-ipo-on-the-ground-visit-revealed-five-risks-in-china-market" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Smoore (麦克韦尔) Pre-IPO: On-The-Ground Visit Revealed Five Risks in China Market</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/smoore-intl-pre-ipo-tripling-capacity-in-three-years" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Smoore Intl (思摩尔国际) Pre-IPO: Tripling Capacity in Three Years</a></li>
</ul></div>

Smoore Tech is a leading e-cigarette and component manufacturer in China. The company was delisted from the venture board in China, the NEEQ, and is seeking a listing in Hong Kong to raise up to USD 400 million. In our previous note, we have looked at the company's background, its brief financials, and its shareholders. We are impressed by the company's stellar growth in the past and its technology-driven business. We also look at the latest regulatory landscape on e-cigarettes in the company’s main market, the US and China. We think the FDA’s deadline for pre-marketing approval in 2020, even if pushed forward, will not present a major problem to the company’s blue-chip clients. Looking at the development in China, we also believe that the e-cigarette will likely be regulated in a similar manner as it is in the US. There might be short term hiccups but a regulatory framework that benefits the general public is long term positive for the e-cigarette industry.Our previous coverage on Smoore International
Smoore Tech (麦克韦尔) Pre-IPO: 6Y and 1H2019 Financials Show Technology Driven Growth
Smoore Tech (麦克韦尔) IPO: Hidden E-Cigarette Player Behind the FEELM Technology
Smoore (麦克韦尔) Pre-IPO: On-The-Ground Visit Revealed Five Risks in China Market
Smoore Intl (思摩尔国际) Pre-IPO: Tripling Capacity in Three Years


Smoore Intl (思摩尔国际) Pre-IPO: Thoughts on E-Cig Regulation

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li><ul>
<li>As youth vaping became a trend and the term “Juuling” became a part of American high school life, Juul became the most popular e-cigarette in the US with over 70% market share.</li>
<li>JUUL Labs, the producer of Juul, is an American e-cigarette company with over $2.0bn in revenue.</li>
<li>The success of Juul in the e-cigaratte market even attracted the interest of Altria, who sells Marlboro and many other cigarette brands in the US.</li>
<li>Altria acquired a 35% stake in Juul Labs for $12.8bn on December 20, 2018, giving Juul Labs a valuation of more than $36.0bn</li>
<li>Juul Labs and Altria’s honeymoon was over even before it started as adults, health and safety organisations and politicians became increasingly concerned about the “Juuling” epidemic within teenagers in the US.</li>
<li>According to the company, Juul is about giving adult smokers a less harmful alternative to cigarettes. It also insists that it never marketed or knowingly sold its trendy e-cigarettes and flavoured nicotine pods to teenagers. But in reality, Juul was never about helping the adult smokers as it turned a blind eye as to who is purchasing its e-cigarettes and nicotine pods.</li>
<li>Since Juul Labs ignored the fact that Juul and teenage vaping has become an epidemic, its success was short lived. The company is now buried under a mountain of investigations, subpoenas and lawsuits.</li>
<li>Towards the end of last year, Juul announced that it will cut 650 jobs, freeze hiring and stop broadcast, print and digital advertising for its products. These initiatives are expected to save around $1.0bn of costs in 2020.</li>
<li>Under these circumstances, Juul’s valuation was cut 35% by Altria and certain unidentified sources suggest that Juul itself has decreased the valuation to $24.0bn. The initial investors such as Tiger Global and Fidelity Investments have also decreased their valuations of the company by more than 50%. ($19.0bn and $16.4bn respectively).</li>
<li>Now, Juul is kept on a short leash by the US regulatory bodies and as a result it had to suspend sales of its non-tobacco, non-menthol-based flavours in the US.</li>
<li>Amidst these bans, Juul was pushing to enter new markets in Europe, the Middle East, Africa, South America and Asia.</li>
<li>However, it was reported last week that Juul was pulling back from overseas expansion and we believe Juul’s troubles in the US market plays into the hands of other vaping brands such as Japan Tobacco’s Logic and Ploom.</li>
</ul></li></ul>


As youth vaping became a trend and the term “Juuling” became a part of American high school life, Juul became the most popular e-cigarette in the US with over 70% market share.
JUUL Labs, the producer of Juul, is an American e-cigarette company with over $2.0bn in revenue.
The success of Juul in the e-cigaratte market even attracted the interest of Altria, who sells Marlboro and many other cigarette brands in the US.
Altria acquired a 35% stake in Juul Labs for $12.8bn on December 20, 2018, giving Juul Labs a valuation of more than $36.0bn
Juul Labs and Altria’s honeymoon was over even before it started as adults, health and safety organisations and politicians became increasingly concerned about the “Juuling” epidemic within teenagers in the US.
According to the company, Juul is about giving adult smokers a less harmful alternative to cigarettes. It also insists that it never marketed or knowingly sold its trendy e-cigarettes and flavoured nicotine pods to teenagers. But in reality, Juul was never about helping the adult smokers as it turned a blind eye as to who is purchasing its e-cigarettes and nicotine pods.
Since Juul Labs ignored the fact that Juul and teenage vaping has become an epidemic, its success was short lived. The company is now buried under a mountain of investigations, subpoenas and lawsuits.
Towards the end of last year, Juul announced that it will cut 650 jobs, freeze hiring and stop broadcast, print and digital advertising for its products. These initiatives are expected to save around $1.0bn of costs in 2020.
Under these circumstances, Juul’s valuation was cut 35% by Altria and certain unidentified sources suggest that Juul itself has decreased the valuation to $24.0bn. The initial investors such as Tiger Global and Fidelity Investments have also decreased their valuations of the company by more than 50%. ($19.0bn and $16.4bn respectively).
Now, Juul is kept on a short leash by the US regulatory bodies and as a result it had to suspend sales of its non-tobacco, non-menthol-based flavours in the US.
Amidst these bans, Juul was pushing to enter new markets in Europe, the Middle East, Africa, South America and Asia.
However, it was reported last week that Juul was pulling back from overseas expansion and we believe Juul’s troubles in the US market plays into the hands of other vaping brands such as Japan Tobacco’s Logic and Ploom.


JUUL’s Demise to Drive Japan Tobacco’s E-Vapor & T-Vapor Growth & Ensures Long Term Survival

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shenzhen-smoore-technology" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28241:1" rel="noopener">Shenzhen Smoore Technology (0959165D CH)</a> is the world’s largest vaping device manufacturer as measured by revenue, accounting for 10.1% of the total market share, in 2018, according to Frost &amp; Sullivan. It is seeking is raise $500 million through a Hong Kong in 1Q20.</p><div class="content-highlight"><p>The industry is currently mired in regulatory uncertainty, but clarity is slowly emerging. While harsher regulations remain an overhang, we think that recent events have lowered the incremental regulatory risk, which could make Smoore an attractive opportunity for investors with higher risk appetite. Setting aside the ongoing regulatory uncertainty, Smoore has the hallmarks of a well-run business.</p></div>

Shenzhen Smoore Technology (0959165D CH) is the world’s largest vaping device manufacturer as measured by revenue, accounting for 10.1% of the total market share, in 2018, according to Frost &amp; Sullivan. It is seeking is raise $500 million through a Hong Kong in 1Q20.The industry is currently mired in regulatory uncertainty, but clarity is slowly emerging. While harsher regulations remain an overhang, we think that recent events have lowered the incremental regulatory risk, which could make Smoore an attractive opportunity for investors with higher risk appetite. Setting aside the ongoing regulatory uncertainty, Smoore has the hallmarks of a well-run business.

Smoore IPO Initiation: Into the Vaping Zone

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

KT&G Corporation / Equity Capital Markets

<p>It was announced after the market close today that Japan Tobacco plans to sell its 2.1% stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kt-g-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9320:1" rel="noopener">KT&amp;G Corporation (033780 KS)</a> (2.86 million shares). The block deal discount is 2.0% to 3.5% discount to the closing price today (97,200 won), which would range from 93,800 won to 95,250 won. KT&amp;G's DPS is 4,000 won right now so the dividend yield is 4.1%.</p><p>We believe that this block deal is a good one for investors seeking 6-8% returns over the next 3-6 months. However, we would not recommend this block deal for investors that are seeking at least double digit returns.</p><p><strong>One of the key reasons why Japan Tobacco is selling its stake in KT&amp;G is to improve its balance sheet.</strong></p><p><strong>Another reason why Japan Tobacco may be selling its stake in KT&amp;G is because of the terrible political relationship between Japan and South Korea in the past five months. </strong></p>

It was announced after the market close today that Japan Tobacco plans to sell its 2.1% stake in KT&amp;G Corporation (033780 KS) (2.86 million shares). The block deal discount is 2.0% to 3.5% discount to the closing price today (97,200 won), which would range from 93,800 won to 95,250 won. KT&amp;G's DPS is 4,000 won right now so the dividend yield is 4.1%.We believe that this block deal is a good one for investors seeking 6-8% returns over the next 3-6 months. However, we would not recommend this block deal for investors that are seeking at least double digit returns.One of the key reasons why Japan Tobacco is selling its stake in KT&amp;G is to improve its balance sheet.Another reason why Japan Tobacco may be selling its stake in KT&amp;G is because of the terrible political relationship between Japan and South Korea in the past five months. 

Japan Tobacco Selling 2.1% Stake of KT&G in a Block Deal

Japan

Japan Tobacco, Inc. operates as an tobacco product company. The Company manufactures, markets and sells cigarettes and other tobacco products internationally. Japan Tobacco is also engaged in pharmaceutical and food businesses.

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Japan Tobacco (2914 JP)

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions Daily Roundup - 6th February ▲ 2914 4911 6406 ▼ 9024 4901 7951

INTO THE 'RED' - As predicted, our Results Score dipped into negative territory yesterday, declining by 56 basis points to -0.21. Of the 65...

Campbell Gunn

Smoore Intl (思摩尔国际) Pre-IPO: Thoughts on E-Cig Regulation

Smoore Tech is a leading e-cigarette and component manufacturer in China. The company was delisted from the venture board in China, the NEEQ, and...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

JUUL’s Demise to Drive Japan Tobacco’s E-Vapor & T-Vapor Growth & Ensures Long Term Survival

As youth vaping became a trend and the term “Juuling” became a part of American high school life, Juul became the most popular e-cigarette in the...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Smoore IPO Initiation: Into the Vaping Zone

Shenzhen Smoore Technology (0959165D CH) is the world’s largest vaping device manufacturer as measured by revenue, accounting for 10.1% of the...

Arun George

Japan Tobacco Selling 2.1% Stake of KT&G in a Block Deal

It was announced after the market close today that Japan Tobacco plans to sell its 2.1% stake in KT&G Corporation (033780 KS) (2.86 million...

Douglas Kim

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