Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>
Context: A recent market pullback alongside implied volatility at the 95th–98th percentile has created a fertile environment for cross-sectional analysis across TOPIX and Nikkei 225 constituents.</li>
<li>
 Highlights: A quantitative screen reveals dispersion in both returns and volatility, with distinct clusters supporting different option structures—from premium-selling strategies to asymmetric upside participation.</li>
<li>
 Why read: This note provides a practical framework and illustrative setups (put underwriting, risk reversals) to help investors translate volatility signals into tailored option strategies.</li>
</ul>



Context: A recent market pullback alongside implied volatility at the 95th–98th percentile has created a fertile environment for cross-sectional analysis across TOPIX and Nikkei 225 constituents.

 Highlights: A quantitative screen reveals dispersion in both returns and volatility, with distinct clusters supporting different option structures—from premium-selling strategies to asymmetric upside participation.

 Why read: This note provides a practical framework and illustrative setups (put underwriting, risk reversals) to help investors translate volatility signals into tailored option strategies.


Japan Equities: Volatility Spike and Dispersion Create Options Opportunities

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Despite conservative 2023 guidance last quarter, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-tobacco-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13498:1" rel="noopener">Japan Tobacco (2914 JP)</a> is primed to exceed expectations in the 3rd quarter of 2023.</li>
<li>Despite no new domestic price hikes, Japan Tobacco's volume recovery post-hikes is expected to help sustain the revenue and profit growth momentum.</li>
<li>New price increases in the Philippines and the UK, coupled with last year's hikes spillover, are expected to boost Japan Tobacco's earnings; and the yen's depreciation amplifies these gains.</li>
</ul>


Despite conservative 2023 guidance last quarter, Japan Tobacco (2914 JP) is primed to exceed expectations in the 3rd quarter of 2023.
Despite no new domestic price hikes, Japan Tobacco's volume recovery post-hikes is expected to help sustain the revenue and profit growth momentum.
New price increases in the Philippines and the UK, coupled with last year's hikes spillover, are expected to boost Japan Tobacco's earnings; and the yen's depreciation amplifies these gains.


Japan Tobacco High Conviction Call: Could Leave 2023 Guidance in the Dust

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We downgraded our global (MSCI ACWI) near-term outlook to neutral in our 3/17/26 Int'l Macro Vision, following ACWI-US breaking below $141.50 support.</li>
<li>The bottom line is that we do not see the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) or MSCI ACWI breaking out to new highs –at least not until we see more downside first.</li>
<li>The growing list of concerns that we have discussed since early-February remains a problem for global equities. Crucial <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ishares-msci-acwi-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24402:1" rel="noopener">iShares MSCI ACWI ETF (ACWI US)</a>  support at $134-$135.70 testing now.</li>
</ul>


We downgraded our global (MSCI ACWI) near-term outlook to neutral in our 3/17/26 Int'l Macro Vision, following ACWI-US breaking below $141.50 support.
The bottom line is that we do not see the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) or MSCI ACWI breaking out to new highs –at least not until we see more downside first.
The growing list of concerns that we have discussed since early-February remains a problem for global equities. Crucial iShares MSCI ACWI ETF (ACWI US)  support at $134-$135.70 testing now.


Stay Defensive. Buys in Global Energy, Materials, Transports, Communications, Utilities, Staples

Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Stargate delays hitting semi-caps, while Texas Instruments cautious tone hitting power-semi's after hours.</li>
<li>Medical tech solution names IQVIA and Medpace surge may aid M3.</li>
<li>DR Hortons's numbers beat sparking enormous short squeeze for Home Builders - Sumitomo Forestry to follow.</li>
</ul>


Stargate delays hitting semi-caps, while Texas Instruments cautious tone hitting power-semi's after hours.
Medical tech solution names IQVIA and Medpace surge may aid M3.
DR Hortons's numbers beat sparking enormous short squeeze for Home Builders - Sumitomo Forestry to follow.


Japan Morning Connection: Trump Announces 15% Tariffs on Japan but Details Remain Scarce

<ul>
<li>The food and beverage sector stands out for its aggressive dual approach—raising prices while driving internal efficiencies—which could position it for earnings outperformance if input cost inflation stabilizes.</li>
<li>Alcoholic beverage makers are facing near-term consumption risks post-price hikes. Yet they are pursuing structural cost improvements to safeguard margins.</li>
<li>Department store operators are balancing strong recent performance and structural transformation with near-term headwinds from remodeling and softer inbound trends.</li>
</ul>


The food and beverage sector stands out for its aggressive dual approach—raising prices while driving internal efficiencies—which could position it for earnings outperformance if input cost inflation stabilizes.
Alcoholic beverage makers are facing near-term consumption risks post-price hikes. Yet they are pursuing structural cost improvements to safeguard margins.
Department store operators are balancing strong recent performance and structural transformation with near-term headwinds from remodeling and softer inbound trends.


Japan Consumer Sector Update: Q4 FY2025 Wrap-Up and FY2026 Outlook

Japan

Japan Tobacco, Inc. operates as an tobacco product company. The Company manufactures, markets and sells cigarettes and other tobacco products internationally. Japan Tobacco is also engaged in pharmaceutical and food businesses.

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Japan Tobacco (2914 JP)

Japan Equities: Volatility Spike and Dispersion Create Options Opportunities

This note presents a cross-sectional approach to identifying options strategies in Japanese equities, set against a backdrop of market pullback and...

Gaudenz Schneider

Japan Tobacco High Conviction Call: Could Leave 2023 Guidance in the Dust

JT has exceeded expectations, reporting a revenue of ¥764bn (consensus: ¥707.5bn) and an OP of ¥218bn (consensus: ¥178.2bn). Additionally, the...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

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Vermilion Research

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Tech risk off with delays for Stargate. Texas Instruments cautious tone affects power-semi's. M3 may benefit from Medspace surge. DR Horton's beat...

Andrew Jackson

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Food and beverage sector raising prices and driving efficiencies for potential earnings outperformance, while alcoholic beverage makers face...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Japan Equities: Volatility Spike and Dispersion Create Options Opportunities

This note presents a cross-sectional approach to identifying options strategies in Japanese equities, set against a backdrop of market pullback and...

Gaudenz Schneider

Japan Tobacco High Conviction Call: Could Leave 2023 Guidance in the Dust

JT has exceeded expectations, reporting a revenue of ¥764bn (consensus: ¥707.5bn) and an OP of ¥218bn (consensus: ¥178.2bn). Additionally, the...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Stay Defensive. Buys in Global Energy, Materials, Transports, Communications, Utilities, Staples

Thursday's International Compass: Stay Defensive. Actionable Global Sectors: Energy, Materials, Transportation, Communications, Utilities, and...

Vermilion Research

Japan Morning Connection: Trump Announces 15% Tariffs on Japan but Details Remain Scarce

Tech risk off with delays for Stargate. Texas Instruments cautious tone affects power-semi's. M3 may benefit from Medspace surge. DR Horton's beat...

Andrew Jackson

Japan Consumer Sector Update: Q4 FY2025 Wrap-Up and FY2026 Outlook

​Food and beverage sector raising prices and driving efficiencies for potential earnings outperformance, while alcoholic beverage makers face...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Food and beverage sector raising prices and driving efficiencies for potential earnings outperformance, while alcoholic beverage makers face...