Blue Lotus Non US Internet research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Ying Pan

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>JD.com C1Q25 revenue exceeded our estimate/consensus by 2.4%/4.3% and adjusted NI by 19%/20%, thanks to better-than-expected cross selling from trade-in subsidies and gross margin;</li>
<li>We, however, raise full year new businesses operating loss from RMB(6bn) to RMB(12bn). We estimate 80% of the loss will come from food delivery;</li>
<li>In lieu of the continued uncertainty in take-out investments, we remove JD.com from TOP BUY while cut TP from US$58 to US$54.</li>
</ul>


JD.com C1Q25 revenue exceeded our estimate/consensus by 2.4%/4.3% and adjusted NI by 19%/20%, thanks to better-than-expected cross selling from trade-in subsidies and gross margin;
We, however, raise full year new businesses operating loss from RMB(6bn) to RMB(12bn). We estimate 80% of the loss will come from food delivery;
In lieu of the continued uncertainty in take-out investments, we remove JD.com from TOP BUY while cut TP from US$58 to US$54.


[JD.com, Inc (JD US, BUY, TP US$54) TP Change]: C1Q25 Review: The Good Time Is About to Pause

<ul>
<li>We expect JD to report C1Q25 revenue/adjusted net income growth of 13%/21% YoY, both in-line with consensus, boosted by gov't subsidies.</li>
<li>We see further catalysts from C2Q25 onward, driven by absorption of export-turned orders, helped by additional policy stimulus, which we believe will mainly augment on margins. </li>
<li>We keep JD as the TOP BUY and raise TP from US$52to US$ 60.</li>
</ul>


We expect JD to report C1Q25 revenue/adjusted net income growth of 13%/21% YoY, both in-line with consensus, boosted by gov't subsidies.
We see further catalysts from C2Q25 onward, driven by absorption of export-turned orders, helped by additional policy stimulus, which we believe will mainly augment on margins. 
We keep JD as the TOP BUY and raise TP from US$52to US$ 60.


[JD.com, Inc (JD US, BUY, TP US$60) TP Change]: C1Q25 Preview: An Anchor of Stability Within Turmoil

Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29043:1" rel="noopener">JD.com (9618 HK)</a> upcoming Q4 and Full Year 2024 results announcement on 6 March historically triggers significant stock volatility, with full-year announcements causing 12-14% price movements.</li>
<li>Options market pricing implies a 9.4% post-announcement move (up or down), which is less than previous full-year announcement reactions but nearly double the average quarterly announcement impact.</li>
<li>Long Straddle positions break even at 9.2% price movements, appearing expensive compared to quarterly announcement history but potentially profitable based on full-year announcement patterns.</li>
</ul>



JD.com (9618 HK) upcoming Q4 and Full Year 2024 results announcement on 6 March historically triggers significant stock volatility, with full-year announcements causing 12-14% price movements.
Options market pricing implies a 9.4% post-announcement move (up or down), which is less than previous full-year announcement reactions but nearly double the average quarterly announcement impact.
Long Straddle positions break even at 9.2% price movements, appearing expensive compared to quarterly announcement history but potentially profitable based on full-year announcement patterns.


JD.com (9618 HK) FY Earnings on 6 March: Divergence Between Option-Implied And Historic Move

<ul>
<li>Box trades are gaining popularity on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. These arbitrage strategies exploit price discrepancies in options markets for near risk-free profits.</li>
<li>Long box trades involve simultaneously buying bull call spreads and bear put spreads with identical strikes and expiration dates, creating a fixed payoff regardless of the underlying asset's price movement.</li>
<li>Box trades require careful execution consideration of spreads, commissions, margins, and fees, with risks primarily in execution and operations rather than market exposure.</li>
</ul>


Box trades are gaining popularity on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. These arbitrage strategies exploit price discrepancies in options markets for near risk-free profits.
Long box trades involve simultaneously buying bull call spreads and bear put spreads with identical strikes and expiration dates, creating a fixed payoff regardless of the underlying asset's price movement.
Box trades require careful execution consideration of spreads, commissions, margins, and fees, with risks primarily in execution and operations rather than market exposure.


Box Trades Explained: How Traders Execute Near Risk-Free Arbitrage in Hong Kong's Options Market

<ul>
<li>This Insight analyses <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29043:1" rel="noopener">JD.com (9618 HK)</a> option strategies traded over the last five trading days on the Hong Kong Exchange. Strategy highlights and volatility context are provided.</li>
<li>
Bearish strategies dominate trading activity, outnumbering bullish ones by more than 3:1, with long volatility structures and calendar/diagonal spreads being prevalent.</li>
<li>
Long tail events: Several strategies follow a pattern of minimal upfront cost (0.1% premium), targeting a significant payout in case of large price movements within a short timeframe. </li>
</ul>


This Insight analyses JD.com (9618 HK) option strategies traded over the last five trading days on the Hong Kong Exchange. Strategy highlights and volatility context are provided.

Bearish strategies dominate trading activity, outnumbering bullish ones by more than 3:1, with long volatility structures and calendar/diagonal spreads being prevalent.

Long tail events: Several strategies follow a pattern of minimal upfront cost (0.1% premium), targeting a significant payout in case of large price movements within a short timeframe. 


JD.com (9618 HK): Strategic Highlights and Market View from HKEX Top Trades

China

JD.com Inc is an online direct sales company in China.  The Company offers a wide selection of products through its website and mobile applications.  JD.com sells appliances, computers, digital products, communication products, garments, books, and household items to consumers and vendors.

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JD.com Inc (ADR) (JD US)

[JD.com, Inc (JD US, BUY, TP US$54) TP Change]: C1Q25 Review: The Good Time Is About to Pause

JD.com exceeded revenue and adjusted net income estimates in Q1, but increased operating loss in new businesses prompts removal from TOP BUY and a...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[JD.com, Inc (JD US, BUY, TP US$60) TP Change]: C1Q25 Preview: An Anchor of Stability Within Turmoil

JD is expected to report strong growth in revenue and net income for Q1 2025, with further catalysts expected in Q2 2025 and beyond. Analysts...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

JD.com (9618 HK) FY Earnings on 6 March: Divergence Between Option-Implied And Historic Move

JD.com (9618 HK) Earnings Call tonight 8:00 pm HKT. After yesterday's 3.06% move up, the ATM strike is now 165. ATM Straddles offer an opportunity...

Gaudenz Schneider

Box Trades Explained: How Traders Execute Near Risk-Free Arbitrage in Hong Kong's Options Market

JD.com (9618 HK) Earnings Call tonight 8:00 pm HKT. After yesterday's 3.06% move up, the ATM strike is now 165. Straddles offer an opportunity to...

Gaudenz Schneider

JD.com (9618 HK): Strategic Highlights and Market View from HKEX Top Trades

Analysis of JD.com option strategies on HK Exchange: Bearish strategies dominate, long tail events with minimal upfront cost target significant...

Gaudenz Schneider

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

[JD.com, Inc (JD US, BUY, TP US$54) TP Change]: C1Q25 Review: The Good Time Is About to Pause

​JD.com exceeded revenue and adjusted net income estimates in Q1, but increased operating loss in new businesses prompts removal from TOP BUY and a...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[JD.com, Inc (JD US, BUY, TP US$60) TP Change]: C1Q25 Preview: An Anchor of Stability Within Turmoil

​JD is expected to report strong growth in revenue and net income for Q1 2025, with further catalysts expected in Q2 2025 and beyond. Analysts...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

JD.com (9618 HK) FY Earnings on 6 March: Divergence Between Option-Implied And Historic Move

JD.com (9618 HK) Earnings Call tonight 8:00 pm HKT. After yesterday's 3.06% move up, the ATM strike is now 165. ATM Straddles offer an opportunity...

Gaudenz Schneider

Box Trades Explained: How Traders Execute Near Risk-Free Arbitrage in Hong Kong's Options Market

JD.com (9618 HK) Earnings Call tonight 8:00 pm HKT. After yesterday's 3.06% move up, the ATM strike is now 165. Straddles offer an opportunity to...

Gaudenz Schneider

JD.com (9618 HK): Strategic Highlights and Market View from HKEX Top Trades

​Analysis of JD.com option strategies on HK Exchange: Bearish strategies dominate, long tail events with minimal upfront cost target significant...

Gaudenz Schneider

JD.com exceeded revenue and adjusted net income estimates in Q1, but increased operating loss in new businesses prompts removal from TOP BUY and a...

JD is expected to report strong growth in revenue and net income for Q1 2025, with further catalysts expected in Q2 2025 and beyond. Analysts...

Analysis of JD.com option strategies on HK Exchange: Bearish strategies dominate, long tail events with minimal upfront cost target significant...