Blue Lotus Non US Internet research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Ying Pan

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We expect JD.com C4Q24 revenue/non-GAAP NI to be RMB337bn/9.7bn, 1.6%/6.5% above consensus, benefiting from trade-in subsidies and logistics;</li>
<li>With 2025 having four quarters of trade-in subsidy vs. 2024's one quarter and smartphone's participation, JD.com is on solid growth footing in our universe. </li>
<li>We raised JD.com's TP from US$50 to US$ 52 TP and maintain BUY rating.</li>
</ul>


We expect JD.com C4Q24 revenue/non-GAAP NI to be RMB337bn/9.7bn, 1.6%/6.5% above consensus, benefiting from trade-in subsidies and logistics;
With 2025 having four quarters of trade-in subsidy vs. 2024's one quarter and smartphone's participation, JD.com is on solid growth footing in our universe. 
We raised JD.com's TP from US$50 to US$ 52 TP and maintain BUY rating.


[JD.com, Inc (JD US, BUY, TP US$52) TP Change]: C4Q24 Preview: Still the Safe Choice into 2025

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

<ul><li>For 4Q24E, we anticipate that JD.com (JD) has inked total revenue of RMB334.6bn, up 9.3% YoY, 3% better than Bloomberg consensus, driven by: 1) the nationwide implementation of home appliance trade-in program; 2) JD’s greater than industry average GMV exposure in home appliance category; and 3) JD’s strong supply chain capability of first-party (1P) business.</li><li>We are also looking for 13.2% YoY growth in non-GAAP net profit for JD, 16% better than consensus, aided by likely better than market expected gross margin expansion and more optimized sales and marketing cost saving from the trade-in program and relatively stable industry competitive landscape.</li><li>We maintain our view that JD is better-positioned than peers to benefit from the nationwide trade-in program in the short term, while quality and sustainable earnings growth of core business as well as enhancement of shareholder return remain key stock price drivers in the long term, in our view. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

For 4Q24E, we anticipate that JD.com (JD) has inked total revenue of RMB334.6bn, up 9.3% YoY, 3% better than Bloomberg consensus, driven by: 1) the nationwide implementation of home appliance trade-in program; 2) JD’s greater than industry average GMV exposure in home appliance category; and 3) JD’s strong supply chain capability of first-party (1P) business.We are also looking for 13.2% YoY growth in non-GAAP net profit for JD, 16% better than consensus, aided by likely better than market expected gross margin expansion and more optimized sales and marketing cost saving from the trade-in program and relatively stable industry competitive landscape.We maintain our view that JD is better-positioned than peers to benefit from the nationwide trade-in program in the short term, while quality and sustainable earnings growth of core business as well as enhancement of shareholder return remain key stock price drivers in the long term, in our view. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

JD.com (JD US) - Expecting Solid 4Q24 Results Driven by Home Appliance Trade-In Program

Research from Asian Century Stocks, Asian Century Stocks

Michael Fritzell

Research from Asian Century Stocks

Providing financial journalism in the Asia-Pacific

Asian Century Stocks

Asian Century Stocks is a newsletter providing financial journalism for companies and stocks in the Asia-Pacific. 
The Asian Century Stocks logotype “百” stands for “one hundred” or a “century”. The economic centre of gravity is moving towards Asia. Yet most global investors are missing out.

<ul>
<li>
China-focused Twitter user “pandawatch” posted a <a href="https://x.com/pandawatch88/status/1878809424607019133" target="_blank" rel="noopener">tweet</a> comparing the total shareholder return of Chinese tech companies.
</li>
<li>
At the top of the list was online retailer JD.com (JD US — US$57 billion) with a total dividend yield and buyback yield of 10% — even after deducting share-based compensation. That’s impressively high.
</li>
<li>JD is one of China’s largest e-commerce companies. It dominates the niche of selling authentic, branded goods online with fast and reliable delivery.</li>
</ul>



China-focused Twitter user “pandawatch” posted a tweet comparing the total shareholder return of Chinese tech companies.


At the top of the list was online retailer JD.com (JD US — US$57 billion) with a total dividend yield and buyback yield of 10% — even after deducting share-based compensation. That’s impressively high.

JD is one of China’s largest e-commerce companies. It dominates the niche of selling authentic, branded goods online with fast and reliable delivery.


JD.com (JD US): Trusted Online Retailer Trading at a 9x P/E with a Coming Margin Inflection

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>China exposure among GEM funds has rebounded to 26%, up from the 2024 low, but still far below the 37.5% peak. India has eased while Taiwan allocations hit new highs.</li>
<li>China remains a major EM underweight at -3.09% vs. benchmark, despite rising allocations. High Active funds stay the most underweight</li>
<li>Industrials see the strongest buying, while Utilities and Consumer sectors decline. Tencent and Alibaba dominate ownership, but many new names are entering the picture.</li>
</ul>


China exposure among GEM funds has rebounded to 26%, up from the 2024 low, but still far below the 37.5% peak. India has eased while Taiwan allocations hit new highs.
China remains a major EM underweight at -3.09% vs. benchmark, despite rising allocations. High Active funds stay the most underweight
Industrials see the strongest buying, while Utilities and Consumer sectors decline. Tencent and Alibaba dominate ownership, but many new names are entering the picture.


China & HK: Rebuild Slows Amid Heavy Sector and Stock Rotation

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

<ul>
<li>With the exception of SF Holding, all listed express firms reported lower H1 OP%</li>
<li>SF's independence and unique product mix protected profits as volume surged</li>
<li>We suggest going Long SF Hldg against Short positions in ZTO &amp; J&amp;T</li>
</ul>


With the exception of SF Holding, all listed express firms reported lower H1 OP%
SF's independence and unique product mix protected profits as volume surged
We suggest going Long SF Hldg against Short positions in ZTO &amp; J&amp;T


Chinese Express Firms All Saw H1 OPM% Fall -- Except SF Hldg | Pair Trade: LONG SF Vs SHORT ZTO, J&T

China

JD.com, Inc. is an online direct sales company in China. The Company offers a wide selection of products through its website and mobile applications. JD.com sells appliances, computers, digital products, communication products, garments, books, and household items to consumers and vendors.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

JD.com (9618 HK)

[JD.com, Inc (JD US, BUY, TP US$52) TP Change]: C4Q24 Preview: Still the Safe Choice into 2025

JD.com's revenue and non-GAAP net income exceed expectations, driven by trade-in subsidies and logistics, with strong growth potential in the...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

JD.com (JD US) - Expecting Solid 4Q24 Results Driven by Home Appliance Trade-In Program

We are also looking for 13.2% YoY growth in non-GAAP net profit for JD, 16% better than consensus, aided by likely better than market expected...

CMB International

JD.com (JD US): Trusted Online Retailer Trading at a 9x P/E with a Coming Margin Inflection

China-focused Twitter user “pandawatch” posted a tweet comparing the total shareholder return of Chinese tech companies.

Asian Century Stocks

China & HK: Rebuild Slows Amid Heavy Sector and Stock Rotation

China & HK allocations are recovering, yet remain a major EM underweight. Rotation is active but cautious—Industrial inflows rise, while high...

Steven Holden

Chinese Express Firms All Saw H1 OPM% Fall -- Except SF Hldg | Pair Trade: LONG SF Vs SHORT ZTO, J&T

SF Holding's unique position within China's eComm fulfillment space allowed it to successfully defend against the margin pressures that afflicted...

Tracking Traffic

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

[JD.com, Inc (JD US, BUY, TP US$52) TP Change]: C4Q24 Preview: Still the Safe Choice into 2025

​JD.com's revenue and non-GAAP net income exceed expectations, driven by trade-in subsidies and logistics, with strong growth potential in the...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

JD.com (JD US) - Expecting Solid 4Q24 Results Driven by Home Appliance Trade-In Program

We are also looking for 13.2% YoY growth in non-GAAP net profit for JD, 16% better than consensus, aided by likely better than market expected...

CMB International

JD.com (JD US): Trusted Online Retailer Trading at a 9x P/E with a Coming Margin Inflection

China-focused Twitter user “pandawatch” posted a tweet comparing the total shareholder return of Chinese tech companies.

Asian Century Stocks

China & HK: Rebuild Slows Amid Heavy Sector and Stock Rotation

China & HK allocations are recovering, yet remain a major EM underweight. Rotation is active but cautious—Industrial inflows rise, while high...

Steven Holden

Chinese Express Firms All Saw H1 OPM% Fall -- Except SF Hldg | Pair Trade: LONG SF Vs SHORT ZTO, J&T

SF Holding's unique position within China's eComm fulfillment space allowed it to successfully defend against the margin pressures that afflicted...

Tracking Traffic

JD.com's revenue and non-GAAP net income exceed expectations, driven by trade-in subsidies and logistics, with strong growth potential in the...