HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Bottom-Up

JD Health International  / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The previously stockpiled drugs/medical devices require a long cycle of digestion. As the industry beta brought by COVID-19 dividend would fade away, JD Health's performance growth could slow down accordingly.</li>
<li>Although JD Health divides its buiness into product revenue and service revenue, drug/product sales are still the underlying logic and business model, which is difficult to maintain high growth expectations.</li>
<li>Current valuation is in reasonable range. Since JD Health will be added to HSI INDEX, it could help boost share price. However, if business transformation fails, high valuation is unsustainable. </li>
</ul>


The previously stockpiled drugs/medical devices require a long cycle of digestion. As the industry beta brought by COVID-19 dividend would fade away, JD Health's performance growth could slow down accordingly.
Although JD Health divides its buiness into product revenue and service revenue, drug/product sales are still the underlying logic and business model, which is difficult to maintain high growth expectations.
Current valuation is in reasonable range. Since JD Health will be added to HSI INDEX, it could help boost share price. However, if business transformation fails, high valuation is unsustainable. 


JD Health (6618.HK) 23Q1 - As Industry Beta Fades, the Expectation Reversal Has yet to Come

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

JD Health International  / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The Hang Seng index committee has added four stocks to take the number of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)</a> constituents to 80. A year late, but we're there!</li>
<li>The next leg of the increase in the number of index constituents will take us up to 100. There is no timeline, so this should take a couple of years.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 2.93% leading to a one-way trade of HK$5.7bn (US$730m). All adds will have over 2x ADV to buy from passive trackers.</li>
</ul>


The Hang Seng index committee has added four stocks to take the number of Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) constituents to 80. A year late, but we're there!
The next leg of the increase in the number of index constituents will take us up to 100. There is no timeline, so this should take a couple of years.
Estimated one-way turnover is 2.93% leading to a one-way trade of HK$5.7bn (US$730m). All adds will have over 2x ADV to buy from passive trackers.


HSI Index Rebalance: Yippee! Finally at 80!

<ul>
<li>There are no constituent changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Tech Index (HSTECH INDEX)</a> in June but there are some free float changes and a bunch of capping changes.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 3.2% leading to a one-way trade of HK$3bn (US$384m). There are 3 stocks with over 1 day of ADV to trade.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trip-com-group-ltd-23a341d0-4f63-4175-a8c5-ee990906cacd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36424:1" rel="noopener">Trip.com (9961 HK)</a> has over 1x ADV to buy from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Tech Index (HSTECH)</a> trackers. The stock is also an add to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (HSI)</a>.</li>
</ul>


There are no constituent changes for the Hang Seng Tech Index (HSTECH INDEX) in June but there are some free float changes and a bunch of capping changes.
Estimated one-way turnover is 3.2% leading to a one-way trade of HK$3bn (US$384m). There are 3 stocks with over 1 day of ADV to trade.

Trip.com (9961 HK) has over 1x ADV to buy from Hang Seng Tech Index (HSTECH) trackers. The stock is also an add to the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (HSI).


HSTECH Index Rebalance: Float & Capping Changes Lead to US$768m Two-Way Trade

China/Asia TMT

Shawn Yang

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

<ul>
<li>JDHealth (JDH) reported C1Q23 top line and non-IFRS operating profit 56% and 78% of our C1H23 estimates. </li>
<li>We now take a more positive view on JDH’s ability to at manage the issue at certain periods and certain areas;</li>
<li>We raise TP from HK$44 to HK$57 and rating to BUY. Possible risks include renewed margin pressure from prescription drugs</li>
</ul>


JDHealth (JDH) reported C1Q23 top line and non-IFRS operating profit 56% and 78% of our C1H23 estimates. 
We now take a more positive view on JDH’s ability to at manage the issue at certain periods and certain areas;
We raise TP from HK$44 to HK$57 and rating to BUY. Possible risks include renewed margin pressure from prescription drugs


[JD Health (6618 HK) Rating Change]: Strong Profitability Likely Achieved Margin Reversal

Equity Capital Markets

Neusoft Xikang Healthcare Technology Co Ltd / Equity Capital Markets

Neusoft Xikang Healthcare Technology Co Ltd

<ul>
<li>The cloud hospital platform services serve as “the entry point” of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/neusoft-xikang-healthcare-technology-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33447:1" rel="noopener">Neusoft Xikang</a>’s overall solutions, but the restrictions imposed by cities would affect the scalability of business.</li>
<li>The variety of 2B objects and the diversity of medical scenarios covered would be conducive to the transformation to 2C business, resulting in stronger user stickiness and more monetization opportunities.</li>
<li>Xikang’s 2B business is weaker than ClouDr. Financial performance would finally reflect the effectiveness and rationality of business model. Xikang’s valuation should be lower than ClouDr and Ping An Good Doctor.</li>
</ul>


The cloud hospital platform services serve as “the entry point” of Neusoft Xikang’s overall solutions, but the restrictions imposed by cities would affect the scalability of business.
The variety of 2B objects and the diversity of medical scenarios covered would be conducive to the transformation to 2C business, resulting in stronger user stickiness and more monetization opportunities.
Xikang’s 2B business is weaker than ClouDr. Financial performance would finally reflect the effectiveness and rationality of business model. Xikang’s valuation should be lower than ClouDr and Ping An Good Doctor.


Pre IPO Neusoft Xikang Healthcare Technology - Some Points Worth the Attention

China

JD Health International Inc. operates drug stores. The Company retails Chinese and Western medicines, nutrition products, health care products, and other products. JD Health International markets its products throughout China.

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JD Health International (6618 HK)

JD Health (6618.HK) 23Q1 - As Industry Beta Fades, the Expectation Reversal Has yet to Come

As industry beta brought by COVID-19 dividend fades away, JD Health's performance growth would slow down.The current business model cannot support...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

HSI Index Rebalance: Yippee! Finally at 80!

The 4 adds get us to 80 members. The next leg up to 100 members should take a few years. 1-way turnover in June is 2.9% resulting in a 1-way trade...

Brian Freitas

HSTECH Index Rebalance: Float & Capping Changes Lead to US$768m Two-Way Trade

Estimated one-way turnover is 3.2% leading to a one-way trade of HK$3bn (US$384m). There are 3 stocks with over 1 day of ADV to trade. Trip.com is...

Brian Freitas

[JD Health (6618 HK) Rating Change]: Strong Profitability Likely Achieved Margin Reversal

We now take a more positive view on JDH’s ability to at manage the issue at certain periods and certain areas; We raise TP from HK$44 to HK$57 and...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Pre IPO Neusoft Xikang Healthcare Technology - Some Points Worth the Attention

Xikang’s business model has its logic.But due to the restrictions imposed by cities, the scalability is uncertain.Without strong 2B business as...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

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