Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

Our March risk on rally cycle remains intact but maturing with a concentration in our copper/energy theme. Emerging markets are our perform bet with Europe the underperform (Germany is the weakest within Europe and the market to short on March strength).Euro moving into 1.13-1.15 macro sell range. AUD/JPY risk on/off turn at 88 barrier. AUD touted to 0.76-78 on bullish on bullish copper. CAD short slice at 1.3250 and will add in the 1.31 range.Asian FX seeking out chart lows for a USD bottom. USD/KRW is the ST USD short. Still like INR to break trendline support. THB and MYR near viable chart supports.EEM on track to push to 34.50 target where we are shorting. Brazil 52k and Turkey 81k are levels to short and to align with EEM top.Asia longs: India, H shares and copper/energy theme.Asia shorts: Thailand average at 1,360. Malaysia 1,700 short. Next in line is to short Sing banks (DBS near 16). Shanghai flat pattern implies weak structure if it sticks this week.S&amp;P push in line with transports 8,000, DJI 17,650 and NDX 4,450 high targets. Sector volumes are weak on this rise warning of weaker sectors leading a cycle turn. We review counter risk measure rally/turn targets as bond yields spike.Eurostoxx 50 3,150/200 is key resistance to cap the March rally for months to come. Germany is the market to short.Cycle dates – March 23rd is when our DM cycles start to turn more bearish with weaker EM’s expected to follow as EM copper linked plays peaking in early April. June is our macro cycle low target.

Our March risk on rally cycle remains intact but maturing with a concentration in our copper/energy theme. Emerging markets are our perform bet with Europe the underperform (Germany is the weakest within Europe and the market to short on March strength).Euro moving into 1.13-1.15 macro sell range. AUD/JPY risk on/off turn at 88 barrier. AUD touted to 0.76-78 on bullish on bullish copper. CAD short slice at 1.3250 and will add in the 1.31 range.Asian FX seeking out chart lows for a USD bottom. USD/KRW is the ST USD short. Still like INR to break trendline support. THB and MYR near viable chart supports.EEM on track to push to 34.50 target where we are shorting. Brazil 52k and Turkey 81k are levels to short and to align with EEM top.Asia longs: India, H shares and copper/energy theme.Asia shorts: Thailand average at 1,360. Malaysia 1,700 short. Next in line is to short Sing banks (DBS near 16). Shanghai flat pattern implies weak structure if it sticks this week.S&amp;P push in line with transports 8,000, DJI 17,650 and NDX 4,450 high targets. Sector volumes are weak on this rise warning of weaker sectors leading a cycle turn. We review counter risk measure rally/turn targets as bond yields spike.Eurostoxx 50 3,150/200 is key resistance to cap the March rally for months to come. Germany is the market to short.Cycle dates – March 23rd is when our DM cycles start to turn more bearish with weaker EM’s expected to follow as EM copper linked plays peaking in early April. June is our macro cycle low target.

Leading Independent Investment Research, Morningstar, Inc.

Morningstar

Leading Independent Investment Research

Morningstar, Inc.

Morningstar, Inc. is a leading provider of independent investment research in North America, Europe, Australia, and Asia. We offer an extensive line of products and services for individual investors, financial advisors, asset managers, and retirement plan providers and sponsors. 

Morningstar provides data on more than 500,000 investment offerings, including stocks, mutual funds, and similar vehicles, along with real-time global market data on more than 16 million equities, indexes, futures, options, commodities, and precious metals, in addition to foreign exchange and Treasury markets. Morningstar also offers investment management services through its investment advisory subsidiaries, with more than $180 billion in assets under advisement or management as of June 30, 2015. We have operations in 27 countries.

Download the Morningstar Fact Sheet : http://corporate.morningstar.com/US/documents/MarketingFactSheets/AboutMorningstarFactsheet.pdf

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Like many global steelmakers, BlueScope has struggled since the global financial crisis.</li><li>The company avoided diversifying into mining via top-of-the-cycle acquisitions, but BlueScope still faces stiff headwinds.</li><li>Debt-fueled acquisitions leading into the global financial crisis forced equity raisings, increasing the number of shares on issue more than four times, and some asset sales.</li><li>With the balance sheet repaired in 2013, the company is on a much firmer financial footing.</li><li>However, BlueScope lacks meaningful cost advantage and we don't believe the company's painted and coated steel, and pre-engineered building brands are moat worthy.</li><li>While improvement is likely from the horrendous 2009 to 2013 base, this already appears priced in. Competitive pressures in steelmaking mean BlueScope is unlikely to earn its cost of capital long term.</li></ul>Analysts: Mathew Hodge &amp; Mark TaylorFull report below the fold....

Like many global steelmakers, BlueScope has struggled since the global financial crisis.The company avoided diversifying into mining via top-of-the-cycle acquisitions, but BlueScope still faces stiff headwinds.Debt-fueled acquisitions leading into the global financial crisis forced equity raisings, increasing the number of shares on issue more than four times, and some asset sales.With the balance sheet repaired in 2013, the company is on a much firmer financial footing.However, BlueScope lacks meaningful cost advantage and we don't believe the company's painted and coated steel, and pre-engineered building brands are moat worthy.While improvement is likely from the horrendous 2009 to 2013 base, this already appears priced in. Competitive pressures in steelmaking mean BlueScope is unlikely to earn its cost of capital long term.Analysts: Mathew Hodge &amp; Mark TaylorFull report below the fold....

With the balance sheet repaired, BlueScope is stabilised, but significant optimism is priced in.

Japan

JFE Holdings, Inc. is a holding company which was established through the merger of NKK Corp and Kawasaki Steel Corp.  The Company manages and conducts its subsidiaries' business, which is steel production and integrated engineering services.

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JFE Holdings (5411 JP)

Risk on Maturing in March

Our March risk on rally cycle remains intact but maturing with a concentration in our copper/energy theme. Emerging markets are our perform bet...

Thomas Schroeder

With the balance sheet repaired, BlueScope is stabilised, but significant optimism is priced in.

Like many global steelmakers, BlueScope has struggled since the global financial crisis. The company avoided diversifying into mining via...

Morningstar, Inc.

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