Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Profit continues to expand at Mitsui E&amp;S after its transition to a holding company, now reporting over 400% profit growth for 9 months YTD. </li>
<li>The company is doing well to keep its operating costs down, with an improving funding structure and balance, as its revenue grows more than COGs.</li>
<li>We wonder if there will be more revisions upward to profit, with new initiatives and with a more proven recent track record.</li>
</ul>


Profit continues to expand at Mitsui E&amp;S after its transition to a holding company, now reporting over 400% profit growth for 9 months YTD. 
The company is doing well to keep its operating costs down, with an improving funding structure and balance, as its revenue grows more than COGs.
We wonder if there will be more revisions upward to profit, with new initiatives and with a more proven recent track record.


Mitsui E&S - Near Record ROE as Profit Continues to Expand From Multiple Drivers

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Global equities (MSCI ACWI) have marginally broken above the top-end of our anticipated 2023 trading range of $93 on ACWI-US.</li>
<li>In our 4/18/23 Int’l MacroVision we acknowledged that a break above $93 and a reach to $96-$97 was also possible – and so far, this is what has played out.</li>
<li>We will continue to watch the $93 level for a potential false breakout, but as long as the ACWI-US is above $90.50, we cannot be bearish.</li>
</ul>


Global equities (MSCI ACWI) have marginally broken above the top-end of our anticipated 2023 trading range of $93 on ACWI-US.
In our 4/18/23 Int’l MacroVision we acknowledged that a break above $93 and a reach to $96-$97 was also possible – and so far, this is what has played out.
We will continue to watch the $93 level for a potential false breakout, but as long as the ACWI-US is above $90.50, we cannot be bearish.


MSCI EM Improving; Buys in Value & Large-Cap EM; Remain Overweight Japan, India, Taiwan, and Greece

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Engineering &amp; Construction firm <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jgc-holdings-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19335:1" rel="noopener">Jgc Corp (1963 JP)</a> on Friday announced 9M results. Full-Year forecasts were revised, with revenue lowered, but OP, RP, and NP unchanged.</li>
<li>The company then also announced a ToSTNeT-3 buyback of up to 4.77% of shares out for ¥20bn to be executed Monday 13 February pre-open. But details matter. </li>
<li>Four Important Takeaways: 1) sometimes a ToSTNeT-3 buyback is not a ToSTNeT-3 buyback, 2) that can be a good sign, and 3) sometimes Adjusted EV vs Adjusted EBITDA is OK.</li>
</ul>


Engineering &amp; Construction firm Jgc Corp (1963 JP) on Friday announced 9M results. Full-Year forecasts were revised, with revenue lowered, but OP, RP, and NP unchanged.
The company then also announced a ToSTNeT-3 buyback of up to 4.77% of shares out for ¥20bn to be executed Monday 13 February pre-open. But details matter. 
Four Important Takeaways: 1) sometimes a ToSTNeT-3 buyback is not a ToSTNeT-3 buyback, 2) that can be a good sign, and 3) sometimes Adjusted EV vs Adjusted EBITDA is OK.


JGC (1963 JP) - A ToSTNeT Buyback Is NOT a ToSTNeT Buyback and Adjusted EV Vs Adjusted EBITDA Is OK.

<ul>
<li>The bear market rally that we were on watch for started last week, confirmed by the bullish reversals on the DAX, Hang Seng, MSCI China (MCHI-US), and China Internet (KWEB-US).</li>
<li>Is this just another bear market rally, or will indexes are able to make a higher low and start a new bull market? Either way, it's a start.</li>
<li>We highlight attractive stocks from a bottoms-up perspective, spanning several Sectors. Over half hail from Japan, where the TOPIX Small index is reversing its downtrend.</li>
</ul>


The bear market rally that we were on watch for started last week, confirmed by the bullish reversals on the DAX, Hang Seng, MSCI China (MCHI-US), and China Internet (KWEB-US).
Is this just another bear market rally, or will indexes are able to make a higher low and start a new bull market? Either way, it's a start.
We highlight attractive stocks from a bottoms-up perspective, spanning several Sectors. Over half hail from Japan, where the TOPIX Small index is reversing its downtrend.


Cautiously Optimistic Following Downtrend Reversals; Japan Continues to Lead; Bottoms-Up Stock Rec's

Alpha-Centric ESG Research

Kyle Rudden

<ul>
<li>One of the significant outcomes of COP26 was an agreement on the mechanism and rules for implementing an international carbon market and emissions trading scheme.</li>
<li>Global carbon markets could help expedite emissions reductions and provide countries greater flexibility in how they meet national-level climate targets under the Paris Agreement.</li>
<li>Global carbon markets are expected to create new investment opportunities including Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) which plays a key role in carbon markets. Herein, CCS stocks.</li>
</ul>


One of the significant outcomes of COP26 was an agreement on the mechanism and rules for implementing an international carbon market and emissions trading scheme.
Global carbon markets could help expedite emissions reductions and provide countries greater flexibility in how they meet national-level climate targets under the Paris Agreement.
Global carbon markets are expected to create new investment opportunities including Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) which plays a key role in carbon markets. Herein, CCS stocks.


COP26: Global Carbon Markets Could Mean Investment Opportunities in Carbon Capture and Storage

Japan

JGC Holdings Corporation provides infrastructure construction services. The Company designs, constructs, and maintains petroleum, petrochemical, gas, nuclear power, pharmaceutical, and communication facilities. JGC Holdings offers services worldwide.

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Jgc Corp (1963 JP)

Mitsui E&S - Near Record ROE as Profit Continues to Expand From Multiple Drivers

Mitsui E&S is recording strong expansion in profit from multiple drivers which can continue and there is room for the company and the market to...

Daniel Tabbush

MSCI EM Improving; Buys in Value & Large-Cap EM; Remain Overweight Japan, India, Taiwan, and Greece

MSCI EM Improving; Buys in Value & Large-Cap EM $TSM #Samsung $BABA; Remain Overweight Japan, India, Taiwan, and Greece. $ACWI break above $93 and...

Vermilion Research

JGC (1963 JP) - A ToSTNeT Buyback Is NOT a ToSTNeT Buyback and Adjusted EV Vs Adjusted EBITDA Is OK.

JGC earnings in-line-ish. A ToSTNeT-3 buyback. Which is not a ToSTNeT-3 buyback. Thoughts about Float, and Valuation. And impact.

Travis Lundy

Cautiously Optimistic Following Downtrend Reversals; Japan Continues to Lead; Bottoms-Up Stock Rec's

The bear market rally that we were on watch for started last week, confirmed by the bullish reversals on the DAX, Hang Seng, MSCI China $MCHI, and...

Vermilion Research

COP26: Global Carbon Markets Could Mean Investment Opportunities in Carbon Capture and Storage

COP26 set the stage for a new global carbon marketplace which could create trillions of dollars of new investment opportunities, including Carbon...

Kyle Rudden

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